When Iran, in previous talks with western powers, has come to the table wanting to discuss everything besides its nuclear programme, it has been accused of changing the subject and playing for time. But as the next round of talks looms, with the Israelis loudly banging the drums for a war that President Barack Obama and other western leaders are desperate to avoid, there may be something to be said for playing for time. After all, Mr Obama and even the Israelis concur that Iran is not currently racing to build nuclear weapons; nor has it taken a decision to do so.
The pressure is created by the Israelis, who insist that time is short before Iran's nuclear progress puts the capability to produce nuclear weapons too close for their comfort. They would go to war to set back the clock.
Sure, starting a potentially catastrophic war simply as a delaying tactic seems absurd, but rationality is hardly coin of the realm in the climate of apocalyptic hysteria. Mindful of the consequences of war, which US military planners fear could result in a regional war and the loss of hundreds of American lives, as The New York Times reported yesterday, Mr Obama and other leaders find themselves trying to calm things down to a mere panic.
That means leaders enter nuclear talks under heavy domestic pressure to quickly demonstrate Iran's capitulation. Failing that, they are pressured to impose sanctions so far-reaching that Tehran reads them as signalling the West's goal as regime change - and that simply raises the incentive to acquire a nuclear deterrent.
While avoiding a hot war remains a goal shared by both sides, covert and proxy warfare are intensifying. Iran has been the target of a sustained campaign of sabotage, cyber-attacks and assassination directed at its nuclear programme and military infrastructure, while Tehran has been accused of launching attacks on Israeli diplomatic facilities in various countries. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also insists that Iran is behind the recent rocket campaign in Gaza by its key Palestinian ally, Islamic Jihad.
That's not implausible, although it does weaken Mr Netanyahu's long-standing insistence that Hamas is Tehran's proxy; on the contrary, Hamas is being undermined by Iran's ally in Gaza.
Moreover, Iran and Hamas have publicly fallen out over Syria, where the Palestinian Islamists support the rebellion, while Iran is sending advisers, money and materiel to prop up President Bashar Al Assad. Syria is now ground zero in the regional Cold War that pits Iran's camp against one led by Saudi Arabia - but aspects of the same conflict are being played out in Bahrain, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.
So, the Iran "problem" is not simply about nuclear weapons; indeed, concern over Iran's nuclear capacity is, in fact, a symptom of the strategic conflict that has been underway since the revolution of 1979. No framework has evolved, despite three decades of conflict of varying degrees of intensity, for integrating Iran into a set of security understandings that can manage and contain that strategic competition. That absence has been felt more intensely over the past decade as Iran's influence has grown as a result of the US invasion of Iraq.
It is strategic competition, rather than "existential" fears, that drives Israel's response to Iran's nuclear programme. While Mr Netanyahu waxes demagogic about a new Holocaust, other Israeli leaders all the way up to his hawkish defence minister Ehud Barak state bluntly that even if Iran had a nuclear weapon, it would not risk certain obliteration by attacking Israel.
Instead, goes the argument, a nuclear-armed Iran would have immunity from being attacked by others - the brutal truth is that nobody would be talking about bombing it if it had a nuclear deterrent - and that would upset a regional strategic balance of power in which Israel enjoys vast military superiority. Immunity from attack would amplify Iran's regional menace, the Israelis warn, and would prompt key rivals such as Saudi Arabia to seek their own nuclear deterrents.
But Iran's nuclear programme isn't the source of regional strategic competition, and that wouldn't disappear even if the programme were stopped. Grasping that simple truth might also point the way towards a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue.
Curiously enough, under the Bush administration, the US sought cooperation with Iran based on a common strategic interests of getting rid of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and, initially, of getting rid of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. Both of those efforts have been bedevilled by mounting competition for influence in the region, and the tensions over the nuclear programme, but Washington recognised that one way to start a dialogue was to focus on matters on which the two sides could agree.
But the Obama administration has focused narrowly on the nuclear issue, and largely through the "Permanent Five + 1" format, which focuses on pressing Iran to comply with UN Security Council resolutions on its uranium enrichment programme.
It's long been suggested that resolving the nuclear issue will require a "grand bargain" framework for addressing all issues of conflict between Iran and its western adversaries. That may be a bridge too far right now, because of domestic politics in both the US and Iran. But that shouldn't preclude broaching the wider discussion - ultimately, the nuclear issue is unlikely to be resolved if Iran believes it is in a mortal struggle.
Mr Obama recently noted that the only long-term solution to the nuclear standoff was for Iran to decide against building nuclear weapons. But it is Iran's perception of threats ranged against it that would prompt it to seek a nuclear deterrent.
The corollary, of course, is that persuading Iran that it doesn't need nukes requires changing Tehran's threat perception. And that means engagement on a wider range of issues than the nuclear one - that, after all, is a symptom of the conflict rather than its cause.
Tony Karon is an analyst based in New York
On Twitter: @TonyKaron
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
THE BIO
Favourite book: ‘Purpose Driven Life’ by Rick Warren
Favourite travel destination: Switzerland
Hobbies: Travelling and following motivational speeches and speakers
Favourite place in UAE: Dubai Museum
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
THE BIO:
Sabri Razouk, 74
Athlete and fitness trainer
Married, father of six
Favourite exercise: Bench press
Must-eat weekly meal: Steak with beans, carrots, broccoli, crust and corn
Power drink: A glass of yoghurt
Role model: Any good man
RESULTS
4pm: Al Bastakiya Listed US$250,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Yulong Warrior, Richard Mullen (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer)
4.35pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Jordan Sport, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Conditions $200,000 (Turf) 1,200m
Winner: Jungle Cat, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 $200,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Kimbear, Patrick Dobbs, Doug Watson
6.20pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 $300,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Blair House, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 $400,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner: North America, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
7.30pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 $250,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner: Hawkbill, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
'HIJRAH%3A%20IN%20THE%20FOOTSTEPS%20OF%20THE%20PROPHET'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEdited%20by%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Idries%20Trevathan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20240%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hirmer%20Publishers%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The biog
Age: 46
Number of Children: Four
Hobby: Reading history books
Loves: Sports
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
Empty Words
By Mario Levrero
(Coffee House Press)
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Fifa%20World%20Cup%20Qatar%202022%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFirst%20match%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2020%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%2016%20round%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%203%20to%206%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuarter-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%209%20and%2010%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESemi-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2013%20and%2014%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Points to remember
- Debate the issue, don't attack the person
- Build the relationship and dialogue by seeking to find common ground
- Express passion for the issue but be aware of when you're losing control or when there's anger. If there is, pause and take some time out.
- Listen actively without interrupting
- Avoid assumptions, seek understanding, ask questions
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
2024%20Dubai%20Marathon%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWomen%E2%80%99s%20race%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Tigist%20Ketema%20(ETH)%202hrs%2016min%207sec%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Ruti%20Aga%20(ETH)%202%3A18%3A09%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20Dera%20Dida%20(ETH)%202%3A19%3A29%0D%3Cbr%3EMen's%20race%3A%0D%3Cbr%3E1.%20Addisu%20Gobena%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A01%0D%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lemi%20Dumicha%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A20%0D%3Cbr%3E3.%20DejeneMegersa%20(ETH)%202%3A05%3A42%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Results
6.30pm: Baniyas (PA) Group 2 Dh195,000 1,400m | Winner: ES Ajeeb, Sam Hitchcock (jockey), Ibrahim Aseel (trainer)
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Al Shamkhah, Royston Ffrench, Sandeep Jadhav
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) Dh190,000 1,200m | Winner: Lavaspin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
8.15pm: Maiden (TB) Dh165,000 1,200m | Winner: Kawasir, Dane O’Neill, Musabah Al Muhairi
8.50pm: Rated Conditions (TB) Dh240,000 1,600m | Winner: Cosmo Charlie, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
9.20pm: Handicap (TB) Dh165,000 1,400m | Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh175,000 2,000m | Winner: Quartier Francais, Fernando Jara, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
%3Cp%3EMATA%0D%3Cbr%3EArtist%3A%20M.I.A%0D%3Cbr%3ELabel%3A%20Island%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHayvn%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EChristopher%20Flinos%2C%20Ahmed%20Ismail%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efinancial%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eundisclosed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESize%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2044%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eseries%20B%20in%20the%20second%20half%20of%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHilbert%20Capital%2C%20Red%20Acre%20Ventures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A