The cautionary graffiti – "It's your turn, doctor" – written by children on a wall in the southern city of Deraa a decade ago, sparked a chain of events that at one time looked ready to bring a Syrian dictator down and end his family's near-40-year rule.
Against the backdrop of the uprisings that were toppling governments in neighbouring Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, there was hope for change in Syria.
But, instead, it sparked a deadly war that is raging a decade on and has turned the country into a charnel house.
Despite Assad's ability to survive: Syria will never be the same
Bashar Al Assad – the doctor – still clings tenuously to power but has re-asserted control over most of the major cities his government once lost.
Since then, the president's survival guide centred on a catalogue of repressive tactics to crush any form of dissent, counting on the loyalty of his fellow Alawite clan members, who make up the backbone of the army and security forces.
Sham parliamentary elections and Cabinet reshuffles that portray the president as a progressive reformer are also part of this playbook.
But the civil conflict quickly became a geopolitical flashpoint, as Russia and Iran helped to tilt the balance in favour of Mr Assad, whose forces defeated the sharply divided rebels and extremists, cornering them today in the north-western province of Idlib, along with up to three million civilians.
The conflict has drawn in not only the two main backers of the Assad regime, but also western and regional countries that acted to strengthen their rebel allies on the ground.
"From the get-go, the Assad regime understood that this was going to be a war of attrition, one that it waged while sparing no thought for civilians," Michael A Horowitz, head of intelligence at the Bahrain-based Le Beck International, a Middle East and North Africa security consultancy group, told The National.
“This was always a slow and deadly war. Urban combat is difficult, even when you don’t shy away from using barrel bombs or chemical weapons, or when using tunnels and car bombs. Both sides were and are still suffering from extensive attrition, making it very difficult to mobilise for extended periods of time and carry out swiping offensives.”
In 2015, Russia sent weapons, military advisers and mercenaries to prop up the Iran-backed government forces. This intervention was a game changer for Mr Al Assad.
Russian air power helped the regime to regain control over most of the country. By mid 2018, the regime had retaken major cities and other areas, chiefly Aleppo and large patches of the countryside and suburbs of Damascus, then Deraa, the birthplace of the Syrian revolution-turned-war.
The regime established a point of strength during UN and western-backed peace talks, with continuing hostilities on the ground making them futile.
As western-backed forces – including the US and its allies in Europe – shifted focus from toppling Mr Al Assad to fighting ISIS, the embattled president played the long game.
First, he decided to give up control of areas he knew he would not be able to keep, while defending areas that were central to the regime's survival.
“Russian air power, as well as the continued influx of Iran-backed foreign fighters, slowly broke the rebels, while also forcing those backing the opposition to review their positions," Mr Horowitz said.
“I would say that this last part was Moscow’s simplest and perhaps most efficient tool: making it clear that, while Assad may not win, the regime also wouldn’t fall, which eventually forced backers of the rebels to slowly move away from what is now perceived as an unrealistic objective," he said.
Adding to the geopolitical aspect of the conflict, the UN Security Council's permanent members were also divided, with Russia and China consistently supportive of the Assad regime, whereas the US, the UK and France endorsed change.
As for the winners and losers of the conflict so far, observers are beginning to see where the chips are falling.
"Russia, to me, is one of the main winners of the conflict. With a limited intervention, a relatively small number of air assets, as well as ground forces [mostly in the form of private mercenaries], Moscow successfully prevented the fall of Assad and positioned itself as an essential interlocutor for most Middle Eastern countries," Mr Horowitz said.
“Strongmen around the world will also get the message that having a Russian base on their soil is kind of like having a get-out-of-jail card."
The Syrians on both sides have lost. The rebels are now almost fully co-opted by Turkey, to the point that some of them are acting as mercenaries in Ankara's regional wars.
But a lack of progress caused Turkey to rethink its strategy and goals, from pushing for regime change in Damascus, to a policy strictly focused on "protecting its fence" through costly ground operations.
In 2018, Russia and Turkey reached an agreement to avert a full-scale regime operation to recapture Idlib, the last main stronghold for rebels and extremist factions.
Mr Horowitz said the Assad regime and its supporters have also lost the war.
"Despite Assad's ability to survive, Syria will never be the same, and the centralised regime that we knew prior to the conflict no longer exists, replaced by a set of foreign-backed warlords," he said.
The war leaves Syria in ruins and the cost of reconstruction is mind-boggling. Neither the Syrians nor the Iranians nor Russians can afford such a daunting undertaking.
The reconstruction process is tied to geopolitical factors in a war dictated by foreign rivalries and US sanctions that might scare off key players in the region and despite recent rapprochement with Damascus.
“At the end of the day, the keys to bringing Syria back to the Arab fold lies in Arab capitals: Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo.
"More so, the Gulf countries are expected to shoulder a major load in Syria's reconstruction, which appears to be a common consensus if and when it happens. To do so, there will be a price to be paid and those Arab capitals will surely not want to prop up Assad while Iran still enjoys a lot of sway over the regime,” said Bachar Al Halabi, Mena geopolitical analyst for the New York-based ClipperData.
In March 2011, “Assad or we burn the country” was one the slogans pro-regime supporters often used. The grim story of Syria continues.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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The biog
Favourite book: Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi
Favourite holiday destination: Spain
Favourite film: Bohemian Rhapsody
Favourite place to visit in the UAE: The beach or Satwa
Children: Stepdaughter Tyler 27, daughter Quito 22 and son Dali 19
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
How Alia's experiment will help humans get to Mars
Alia’s winning experiment examined how genes might change under the stresses caused by being in space, such as cosmic radiation and microgravity.
Her samples were placed in a machine on board the International Space Station. called a miniPCR thermal cycler, which can copy DNA multiple times.
After the samples were examined on return to Earth, scientists were able to successfully detect changes caused by being in space in the way DNA transmits instructions through proteins and other molecules in living organisms.
Although Alia’s samples were taken from nematode worms, the results have much bigger long term applications, especially for human space flight and long term missions, such as to Mars.
It also means that the first DNA experiments using human genomes can now be carried out on the ISS.
Fatherland
Kele Okereke
(BMG)
The biog
Birthday: February 22, 1956
Born: Madahha near Chittagong, Bangladesh
Arrived in UAE: 1978
Exercise: At least one hour a day on the Corniche, from 5.30-6am and 7pm to 8pm.
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi? “Everywhere. Wherever you go, you can relax.”
Profile
Company: Libra Project
Based: Masdar City, ADGM, London and Delaware
Launch year: 2017
Size: A team of 12 with six employed full-time
Sector: Renewable energy
Funding: $500,000 in Series A funding from family and friends in 2018. A Series B round looking to raise $1.5m is now live.
APPLE IPAD MINI (A17 PRO)
Display: 21cm Liquid Retina Display, 2266 x 1488, 326ppi, 500 nits
Chip: Apple A17 Pro, 6-core CPU, 5-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
Storage: 128/256/512GB
Main camera: 12MP wide, f/1.8, digital zoom up to 5x, Smart HDR 4
Front camera: 12MP ultra-wide, f/2.4, Smart HDR 4, full-HD @ 25/30/60fps
Biometrics: Touch ID, Face ID
Colours: Blue, purple, space grey, starlight
In the box: iPad mini, USB-C cable, 20W USB-C power adapter
Price: From Dh2,099
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Remaining Fixtures
Wednesday: West Indies v Scotland
Thursday: UAE v Zimbabwe
Friday: Afghanistan v Ireland
Sunday: Final
Essentials
The flights
Whether you trek after mountain gorillas in Rwanda, Uganda or the Congo, the most convenient international airport is in Rwanda’s capital city, Kigali. There are direct flights from Dubai a couple of days a week with RwandAir. Otherwise, an indirect route is available via Nairobi with Kenya Airways. Flydubai flies to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, via Entebbe in Uganda. Expect to pay from US$350 (Dh1,286) return, including taxes.
The tours
Superb ape-watching tours that take in all three gorilla countries mentioned above are run by Natural World Safaris. In September, the company will be operating a unique Ugandan ape safari guided by well-known primatologist Ben Garrod.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, local operator Kivu Travel can organise pretty much any kind of safari throughout the Virunga National Park and elsewhere in eastern Congo.
CHINESE GRAND PRIX STARTING GRID
1st row
Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari)
2nd row
Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes-GP)
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes-GP)
3rd row
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing)
Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull Racing)
4th row
Nico Hulkenberg (Renault)
Sergio Perez (Force India)
5th row
Carlos Sainz Jr (Renault)
Romain Grosjean (Haas)
6th row
Kevin Magnussen (Haas)
Esteban Ocon (Force India)
7th row
Fernando Alonso (McLaren)
Stoffel Vandoorne (McLaren)
8th row
Brendon Hartley (Toro Rosso)
Sergey Sirotkin (Williams)
9th row
Pierre Gasly (Toro Rosso)
Lance Stroll (Williams)
10th row
Charles Leclerc (Sauber)
arcus Ericsson (Sauber)
The Greatest Royal Rumble card
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight ChampionshipAJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Rusev
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v Kalisto
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
MATCH INFO
FA Cup final
Chelsea 1
Hazard (22' pen)
Manchester United 0
Man of the match: Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
When is VAR used?
• Goals
• Penalty decisions
• Direct red-card incidents
• Mistaken identity
'How To Build A Boat'
Jonathan Gornall, Simon & Schuster
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
Married Malala
Malala Yousafzai is enjoying married life, her father said.
The 24-year-old married Pakistan cricket executive Asser Malik last year in a small ceremony in the UK.
Ziauddin Yousafzai told The National his daughter was ‘very happy’ with her husband.
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo and dual electric motors
Power: 300hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 520Nm at 1,500-3,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.0L/100km
Price: from Dh199,900
On sale: now
Racecard
6pm: Mina Hamriya – Handicap (TB) $75,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
6.35pm: Al Wasl Stakes – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Turf) 1,200m
7.10pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,900m
7.45pm: Blue Point Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,000m
8.20pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy – Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (T) 2,810m
8.55pm: Mina Rashid – Handicap (TB) $80,000 (T) 1,600m
Company%20profile
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INVESTMENT PLEDGES
Cartlow: $13.4m
Rabbitmart: $14m
Smileneo: $5.8m
Soum: $4m
imVentures: $100m
Plug and Play: $25m
Company profile
Name: Dukkantek
Started: January 2021
Founders: Sanad Yaghi, Ali Al Sayegh and Shadi Joulani
Based: UAE
Number of employees: 140
Sector: B2B Vertical SaaS(software as a service)
Investment: $5.2 million
Funding stage: Seed round
Investors: Global Founders Capital, Colle Capital Partners, Wamda Capital, Plug and Play, Comma Capital, Nowais Capital, Annex Investments and AMK Investment Office
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
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Persuasion
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MO
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