On February 3, a US raid on a small home in Syria’s border with Turkey deprived ISIS of its little-known leader.
Muhammad Al Mawla, nom de guerre Abu Ibrahim Al Hashimi Al Qurayshi, maintained a far lower profile than his predecessor, known as Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi.
Who his successor will be is anyone’s guess. Analysts have made various predictions including ISIS spokesman Abu Hamza Al Qurayshi Al Baghdadi, who announced Al Baghdadi’s replacement in 2019 after he was killed in another US raid.
By what criteria will ISIS select a new leader?
ISIS requires a credible leader, or 'Caliph', to have good health, substantial religious scholarship and, most importantly, lineage to Quraysh, the tribe of the Prophet Mohammed.
Abu Ibrahim arguably met only one such criterion.
“He was missing a limb – a leg, which was amputated. So, technically speaking, he did not have the physical fitness to be a Caliph,” Aymenn Al Tamimi, research fellow at George Washington University’s Programme on Extremism, told The National.
Al Mawla’s lineage to Quraysh was also questionable. As indicated by his last name, he was a member of Al Mawla, a Turkmen-speaking tribe in Iraq.
“The Al Mawla tribe is of Arab origin, although many of them espouse a Turkmen identity ... [Abu Ibrahim] also went by a Turkmen identity because one of his names was Qardash, which means brother in Turkish. So he was a Turkmen and Arab at the same time,” Mr Al Tamimi said.
Typically, a group called Ahl Al Hall Wal-Aqd (The People of Solving Problems and Making Contracts) chooses a leader and pledges allegiance to him before, in this case, ISIS followers do the same in mosques.
But Abu Ibrahim’s low profile made his nomination by Ahl Al Hall Wal-Aqd somewhat contentious.
Aron Lund is a a Middle East analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency and a fellow of Century International, part of think tank The Century Foundation.
He believes ISIS tried to conceal Abu Ibrahim’s identity, frustrating even some fellow extremists “who opposed the idea of pledging allegiance to a faceless, nameless caliph”.
“As with the ethnicity issue, most ISIS subgroups and members seem to have shrugged off the controversy, trusting their leadership and ignoring the protestations of outsiders,” Mr Lund said.
Shrinking authority
Whoever ISIS decides to appoint as its third leader, experts say he will reign over a weakened organisation. In its heyday, in 2015, ISIS controlled large parts of Syria and Iraq, with affiliates in at least eight countries.
Even the US-led coalition to defeat ISIS said Abu Ibrahim had “little impact” as leader.
ISIS lost its final stronghold in a battle in Baghouz, Syria, in 2019, the end of its territorial rule.
“The killing of [Abu Ibrahim] is significant, no doubt, although, in the bigger picture, I don’t think it leads to a real change in how ISIS has been operating, which is low-level sustained insurgency both in Iraq and Syria, and also around the world,” Mr Tamimi said.
Caliphate beyond reach
Similarly, Orwa Ajjoub, a senior analyst at the Centre for Operational Analysis and Research, said a so-called Caliphate 2.0 may not be on the horizon for the fallen group.
“For a long period of his time as leader, [Abu Bakr] Al Baghdadi was able to meet with his seniors and Al Wulat [authority holders] and run the organisation as a whole, whereas Abu Ibrahim was not as connected to his group due to the different reality on the ground, ISIS’s relative weakness and because the international community took over the land that the group once controlled.”
Now, Mr Ajjoub says, ISIS is primarily composed of sleeper cells and lone wolves, although this does not mean they do not pose a threat.
“ISIS does not have the manpower or the resources to create another state right now. The operation and scale of ISIS fighters does not indicate that they are seeking to impose control over territory but only to disrupt stability and create chaos for their so-called enemies.”
Until a new leader is announced, the consensus among Syria watchers, analysts and even counter-terrorism forces is that an attack similar to the raid of Hassakeh should not be disregarded.
Picture of Joumblatt and Hariri breaking bread sets Twitter alight
Mr Joumblatt’s pessimism regarding the Lebanese political situation didn’t stop him from enjoying a cheerful dinner on Tuesday with several politicians including Mr Hariri.
Caretaker Culture Minister Ghattas Khoury tweeted a picture of the group sitting around a table at a discrete fish restaurant in Beirut’s upscale Sodeco area.
Mr Joumblatt told The National that the fish served at Kelly’s Fish lounge had been very good.
“They really enjoyed their time”, remembers the restaurant owner. “Mr Hariri was taking selfies with everybody”.
Mr Hariri and Mr Joumblatt often have dinner together to discuss recent political developments.
Mr Joumblatt was a close ally of Mr Hariri’s assassinated father, former prime minister Rafik Hariri. The pair were leading figures in the political grouping against the 15-year Syrian occupation of Lebanon that ended after mass protests in 2005 in the wake of Rafik Hariri’s murder. After the younger Hariri took over his father’s mantle in 2004, the relationship with Mr Joumblatt endured.
However, the pair have not always been so close. In the run-up to the election last year, Messrs Hariri and Joumblatt went months without speaking over an argument regarding the new proportional electoral law to be used for the first time. Mr Joumblatt worried that a proportional system, which Mr Hariri backed, would see the influence of his small sect diminished.
With so much of Lebanese politics agreed in late-night meetings behind closed doors, the media and pundits put significant weight on how regularly, where and with who senior politicians meet.
In the picture, alongside Messrs Khoury and Hariri were Mr Joumbatt and his wife Nora, PSP politician Wael Abou Faour and Egyptian ambassador to Lebanon Nazih el Nagari.
The picture of the dinner led to a flurry of excitement on Twitter that it signified an imminent government formation. “God willing, white smoke will rise soon and Walid Beik [a nickname for Walid Joumblatt] will accept to give up the minister of industry”, one user replied to the tweet. “Blessings to you…We would like you to form a cabinet”, wrote another.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether these wishes come true.
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How it works
1) The liquid nanoclay is a mixture of water and clay that aims to convert desert land to fertile ground
2) Instead of water draining straight through the sand, it apparently helps the soil retain water
3) One application is said to last five years
4) The cost of treatment per hectare (2.4 acres) of desert varies from $7,000 to $10,000 per hectare
Match info
Uefa Nations League A Group 4
England 2 (Lingard 78', Kane 85')
Croatia 1 (Kramaric 57')
Man of the match: Harry Kane (England)
List of alleged parties
- May 15 2020: Boris Johnson is said to have attended a Downing Street pizza party
- 27 Nov 2020: PM gives speech at leaving do for his staff
- Dec 10 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson
- Dec 13 2020: Mr Johnson and his then-fiancee Carrie Symonds throw a flat party
- Dec 14 2020: Shaun Bailey holds staff party at Conservative Party headquarters
- Dec 15 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz
- Dec 18 2020: Downing Street Christmas party
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
PSL FINAL
Multan Sultans v Peshawar Zalmi
8pm, Thursday
Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
EPL's youngest
- Ethan Nwaneri (Arsenal)
15 years, 181 days old
- Max Dowman (Arsenal)
15 years, 235 days old
- Jeremy Monga (Leicester)
15 years, 271 days old
- Harvey Elliott (Fulham)
16 years, 30 days old
- Matthew Briggs (Fulham)
16 years, 68 days old
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
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Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre, twin-turbo V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 582bhp
Torque: 730Nm
Price: Dh649,000
On sale: now
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The design
The protective shell is covered in solar panels to make use of light and produce energy. This will drastically reduce energy loss.
More than 80 per cent of the energy consumed by the French pavilion will be produced by the sun.
The architecture will control light sources to provide a highly insulated and airtight building.
The forecourt is protected from the sun and the plants will refresh the inner spaces.
A micro water treatment plant will recycle used water to supply the irrigation for the plants and to flush the toilets. This will reduce the pavilion’s need for fresh water by 30 per cent.
Energy-saving equipment will be used for all lighting and projections.
Beyond its use for the expo, the pavilion will be easy to dismantle and reuse the material.
Some elements of the metal frame can be prefabricated in a factory.
From architects to sound technicians and construction companies, a group of experts from 10 companies have created the pavilion.
Work will begin in May; the first stone will be laid in Dubai in the second quarter of 2019.
Construction of the pavilion will take 17 months from May 2019 to September 2020.
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
