Syria’s election is a party for Assad but opposition head says he has a shot


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In the sea of posters for President Bashar Al Assad on the walls of Damascus streets ahead of Wednesday's election was a solitary billboard for Mahmoud Marei, a man who says he has a real chance of unseating the incumbent and ending a five-decade dynasty.

The last two weeks have been more of a celebration than an election

Mr Marei's campaign has been low-key by any standard but it was dwarfed by the pervasive Baath party operation led by the Al Assad family in the run-up to an election that western governments say is certainly rigged and little more than a pledge of loyalty to the embattled Syrian leader.

But the former Syrian jail inmate and member of the UN-sponsored peace talks in Geneva insists that he is the leader of the first viable opposition to contest the presidential election in a country with little free speech.

"For the first time the domestic opposition participates in the elections and has a manifesto," he told The National from his near-empty campaign headquarters on bustling Arnous Square in central Damascus in the final days of the campaign.

The president’s critics in exile brand men like Mr Marei as fake stand-ins for a real opposition and an extension of the regime. He counters by saying his credibility stems from the fact that he is speaking from within Mr Assad’s Syria.

“The real opposition knows who I am, I was a political detainee for six years, I've been banned from travelling in Syria for five years. I have been an opponent of the regime for 45 years, I’ve been through prison and jail cells, I even spent time in solitary confinement,” he said.

Mr Marei may be tolerated officially, but he faces a torrent of abuse from government supporters on social media. They posted images of the candidate with the hashtag "we are continuing without you" and mocking his slogans of "Yes for freeing all political detainees".

He has some defenders online, however, with one activist decrying the abuse of Mr Marei's on Facebook. "Very disgusted by all the people and pages insulting Marei, this person has followers, a family, and children," the activist wrote.

Despite the accusations of being a government plant and the abuse online, Mr Marei speaks frankly about what he sees are the needs and priorities of the Syrian people after more than 10 years of war that started with protests calling for the fall of the Al Assad family's rule.

“How can people want to collapse the regime? It didn’t work. We need to be realistic for the interests of Syria, for the young people who have no work and are living in a bad economic crisis,” he said.

A party for Assad

There is little doubt in Damascus that Mr Al Assad will win by a landslide and secure a fourth consecutive term in the office he took over from his father in 2000.

Beyond the confines of Mr Marei's office, the rest of the capital is in festival-like spirits.

Tents were erected to promote Mr Al Assad and huge loudspeakers play deafening patriotic songs.

“The last two weeks have been more of a celebration than an election, it’s like a national wedding or a holiday,” said university student Ruba Shami. “Some workers and students went to the rallies because they got days off and were given refreshments and could dance. It’s not often we get this – but it’s like a long holiday.”

When asked if she planned to vote and who she would cast a ballot for, Ms Shami hesitated. “I don’t know, we shall see on the day.”

Fares Othman was more forthright.

He works at the Finance Ministry, next to a hot spot for pro- Assad rallies, where music and particular dabke songs praise the president through the day and echo deep into the night.

“We come here, like we did seven years ago, to swear fealty again to our leader. This is our chance to show who we believe in,” Mr Othman said. “The other candidates are very brave, but they have no chance.”

The lead-up to the election was dominated by a relentless election campaign by the president's team with the slogan "work through hope" that sought to portray the 55-year-old Syrian leader as a man of action up to the task of leading for the next seven years.

A nation in ruins

While Mr Al Assad’s victory is in little doubt, the challenges he faces are immense.

Armed factions still control Idlib, the last rebel-held province that is now home to three million people – including more than a million children.

The International Committee of the Red Cross estimates that 47 per cent of Syrians lost a close relative in the war with about 62 per cent forced from their homes.

Almost half of the Syrian population have lost their income and 85 per cent are struggling to afford food and basic necessities.

In a pre-election move from the seat of power, Mr Al Assad issued an amnesty waiving punishments for draft dodgers, illegal currency traders and those facing small criminal charges.

Aside from this quick-win pardoning spree, the Syrian government also managed to stabilise Syria’s faltering currency at a preferential rate of 3,100 Syrian pounds to the dollar – down from a record-high of 4,900 Syrian pounds to the dollar before the elections. The move gave a slight reprieve to people suffering from a steady economic decline.

But, the vote will do little to change the view of Mr Al Assad in the West or lead to the removal of sanctions on the regime – the US State Department has already denounced the vote.

“The proposed Syrian presidential election this year will neither be free nor fair,” they said. “In this environment, we do not assess this call for elections to be credible.”

Nicolas de Riviere, the French ambassador to the UN, said that "France will not recognise any validity to the elections planned by the regime at the end of May".

Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad responded that "the West is boycotting Syria and imposing economic sanctions on it to push the refugees not to return to Syria".

More than 6.6 million Syrian refugees fled the war to neighbouring states and overseas.

Mr Marei may be an opponent but he agrees with the government that sanctions are a dead end.

“We need to work towards removing sanctions and restoring our resources,” he said.

The studios taking part (so far)
  1. Punch
  2. Vogue Fitness 
  3. Sweat
  4. Bodytree Studio
  5. The Hot House
  6. The Room
  7. Inspire Sports (Ladies Only)
  8. Cryo
So what is Spicy Chickenjoy?

Just as McDonald’s has the Big Mac, Jollibee has Spicy Chickenjoy – a piece of fried chicken that’s crispy and spicy on the outside and comes with a side of spaghetti, all covered in tomato sauce and topped with sausage slices and ground beef. It sounds like a recipe that a child would come up with, but perhaps that’s the point – a flavourbomb combination of cheap comfort foods. Chickenjoy is Jollibee’s best-selling product in every country in which it has a presence.
 

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”