The months-long political and economic crisis engulfing Lebanon is expected to intensify, against the backdrop of rising domestic tensions and growing regional friction between the US and Iran, experts said.
Intransigence on both sides in Beirut has led to the collapse of talks on the formation of a government between President Michel Aoun, a staunch ally of the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, and his political nemesis, Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri.
Their disagreement has left Lebanon without a functioning government since the massive explosion that shook Beirut seven months ago, killing at least 200 people and compounding the country's economic and financial woes. Protests in the aftermath led to the government resigning.
Despite the current deadlock, Mr Hariri was not considering stepping down, Mustapha Allouch, a senior official in Mr Hariri's Future Movement told The National.
Mr Hariri, who met Mr Aoun on Monday for the 18th time since his designation as prime minister, publicly blamed the president for derailing the formation of a Cabinet of non-partisan experts by seeking over a third of the government's seats – and consequently veto power over key resolutions.
Mr Aoun’s office retaliated, accusing Mr Hariri of stalling for “unknown reasons”.
Analysts say the falling out between the pair, which came days after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah urged Mr Hariri to form a Cabinet of both experts and politicians who could manage the crisis, reflects the high stakes in the ongoing tug of war between warring sides.
"This is a two-dimensional crisis fuelled by intertwined and conflicting domestic and regional agendas," Rosana Bou Mounsef, a political analyst and longtime columnist for An-Nahar, Lebanon's oldest daily newspaper, told The National.
Ms Bou Mounsef said both the president and the prime minister-designate have now less room for manoeuvre.
On one hand, Mr Aoun is seeking to capitalise on Hezbollah's hardline position to empower his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, leader of the largest parliamentary bloc, before the coming elections, Ms Bou Mounsef said.
Parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled for 2022.
On the other, Mr Hariri is looking to revitalise Lebanon’s ties with the international community and traditional Arab allies who have long provided the small Mediterranean nation with financial support.
"Both have much at stake to concede under the current circumstances," Ms Bou Mounsef said.
Mr Bassil, a presidential aspirant who was the target of US sanctions last year over allegations of corruption, has accused Mr Hariri of seeking to dictate the Cabinet line-up to the president.
But the prime minister-designate says only a Cabinet of non-partisan experts committed to the implementation of reforms would unlock international financial support to help Lebanon weather its economic crisis.
Ms Bou Mounsef expects the deadlock to persist as long as Hezbollah maintains its hardline position, pending the outcome of negotiations between the US and Iran.
Until then, the armed group "will continue to support the president in his endeavour to secure Mr Bassil's political ambitions, as evidenced by Hezbollah's remarks last week", she said.
Mr Allouch said the only solution to the crisis is for the president to accept Mr Hariri’s proposal or to step down from his role as head of state, echoing earlier remarks by the prime minister-designate.
Mr Hariri has called on Mr Aoun to allow for early presidential elections after the latter invited him to step down if he can’t form a government, reflecting the deep schism between the two officials.
The political crisis is further complicated by the lack of constitutional mechanisms to break the deadlock, said Dr Antoine Sfeir, a lawyer, professor and expert in constitutional law.
Since the formation of the Cabinet requires both the approval of the president and prime minister-designate before it can seek a vote of confidence in Parliament, their disagreement leaves the country in an open-ended crisis, he said.
But Dr Sfeir argues the constitution allows for the caretaker Cabinet, led by caretaker prime minister Hassan Diab, to hold exceptional meetings to address specific urgent matters.
Such a scenario is now becoming increasingly likely, despite Mr Diab's reluctance so far to breathe life into his caretaker Cabinet, under pressure from Hezbollah and the president, Mrs Bou Monsef said.
Mr Diab, who resigned as prime minister following the Beirut port explosion, has recently threatened to abstain from his caretaker duties, if this would help pressure politicians into forming a fully functioning Cabinet.
Lebanon has been without a government since last August, when the country’s political leaders promised French President Emanuel Macron, who visited Beirut after the blast, that they would quickly form a Cabinet exclusively tasked with enacting reforms, in exchange for financial aid.
But seven months later, no progress has been made, while the country's economic woes have deepened, with the national currency losing over 85 per cent of its value against the dollar and over half the population plunging into poverty.
The Arab League on Tuesday voiced concerns over the deepening Lebanese crisis and offered “to do whatever was asked from it to heal the current rift”.
The failure to break the deadlock will eventually have a devastating impact on Lebanon, financial expert and former banking executive Dan Azzi told The National.
Mr Azzi said the lack of reforms will force the Central Bank to consume its remaining $16 billion in foreign currencies in less than 18 months, eventually disrupting vital supplies of fuel, food and medicine, unless Lebanon's Parliament authorises the Central Bank to tap its gold reserves.
“Lebanon will turn into Mogadishu in 1993,” said Mr Azzi, who expects the currency crisis to worsen to the point of undermining social order.
But such an outcome could be easily avoided, he said, if the necessary reforms are undertaken without further delays.
Tank warfare
Lt Gen Erik Petersen, deputy chief of programs, US Army, has argued it took a “three decade holiday” on modernising tanks.
“There clearly remains a significant armoured heavy ground manoeuvre threat in this world and maintaining a world class armoured force is absolutely vital,” the general said in London last week.
“We are developing next generation capabilities to compete with and deter adversaries to prevent opportunism or miscalculation, and, if necessary, defeat any foe decisively.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
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ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates, Etihad and Swiss fly direct from the UAE to Zurich from Dh2,855 return, including taxes.
The chalet
Chalet N is currently open in winter only, between now and April 21. During the ski season, starting on December 11, a week’s rental costs from €210,000 (Dh898,431) per week for the whole property, which has 22 beds in total, across six suites, three double rooms and a children’s suite. The price includes all scheduled meals, a week’s ski pass, Wi-Fi, parking, transfers between Munich, Innsbruck or Zurich airports and one 50-minute massage per person. Private ski lessons cost from €360 (Dh1,541) per day. Halal food is available on request.
THE DETAILS
Director: Milan Jhaveri
Producer: Emmay Entertainment and T-Series
Cast: John Abraham, Manoj Bajpayee
Rating: 2/5
Essentials
The flights
Whether you trek after mountain gorillas in Rwanda, Uganda or the Congo, the most convenient international airport is in Rwanda’s capital city, Kigali. There are direct flights from Dubai a couple of days a week with RwandAir. Otherwise, an indirect route is available via Nairobi with Kenya Airways. Flydubai flies to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo, via Entebbe in Uganda. Expect to pay from US$350 (Dh1,286) return, including taxes.
The tours
Superb ape-watching tours that take in all three gorilla countries mentioned above are run by Natural World Safaris. In September, the company will be operating a unique Ugandan ape safari guided by well-known primatologist Ben Garrod.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, local operator Kivu Travel can organise pretty much any kind of safari throughout the Virunga National Park and elsewhere in eastern Congo.
India squads
Test squad against Afghanistan: Rahane (c), Dhawan, Vijay, Rahul, Pujara, Karun, Saha, Ashwin, Jadeja, Kuldeep, Umesh, Shami, Pandya, Ishant, Thakur.
T20 squad against Ireland and England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Raina, Pandey, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh.
ODI squad against England: Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Shreyas, Rayudu, Dhoni, Karthik, Chahal, Kuldeep, Sundar, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Pandya, Kaul, Umesh
Disposing of non-recycleable masks
Use your ‘black bag’ bin at home
Do not put them in a recycling bin
Take them home with you if there is no litter bin
- No need to bag the mask
Two-step truce
The UN-brokered ceasefire deal for Hodeidah will be implemented in two stages, with the first to be completed before the New Year begins, according to the Arab Coalition supporting the Yemeni government.
By midnight on December 31, the Houthi rebels will have to withdraw from the ports of Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Al Saqef, coalition officials told The National.
The second stage will be the complete withdrawal of all pro-government forces and rebels from Hodeidah city, to be completed by midnight on January 7.
The process is to be overseen by a Redeployment Co-ordination Committee (RCC) comprising UN monitors and representatives of the government and the rebels.
The agreement also calls the deployment of UN-supervised neutral forces in the city and the establishment of humanitarian corridors to ensure distribution of aid across the country.
Chelsea 2 Burnley 3
Chelsea Morata (69'), Luiz (88')
Burnley Vokes (24', 43'), Ward (39')
Red cards Cahill, Fabregas (Chelsea)
Abu Dhabi GP schedule
Friday: First practice - 1pm; Second practice - 5pm
Saturday: Final practice - 2pm; Qualifying - 5pm
Sunday: Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (55 laps) - 5.10pm
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
THE SPECS
Cadillac XT6 2020 Premium Luxury
Engine: 3.6L V-6
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 310hp
Torque: 367Nm
Price: Dh280,000
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Results
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Top Hundred overseas picks
London Spirit: Kieron Pollard, Riley Meredith
Welsh Fire: Adam Zampa, David Miller, Naseem Shah
Manchester Originals: Andre Russell, Wanindu Hasaranga, Sean Abbott
Northern Superchargers: Dwayne Bravo, Wahab Riaz
Oval Invincibles: Sunil Narine, Rilee Rossouw
Trent Rockets: Colin Munro
Birmingham Phoenix: Matthew Wade, Kane Richardson
Southern Brave: Quinton de Kock
The%20Beekeeper
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
