How will Hezbollah retaliate against Israel after killing of Saleh Al Arouri?



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Few but Hezbollah’s top leaders have a clear idea of what the group could do next after Israel's assassination of Hamas deputy Saleh Al Arouri in Beirut on Tuesday.

Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, in his first comments since the killing, had warned that the Iran-backed group “cannot be silent.”

But Mr Nasrallah, who is set to give another speech on Friday, did not elaborate further, and it is unclear how exactly the group plans to retaliate.

A source close to Hezbollah told The National on Thursday: “The retaliation has to be clear. It won’t be the kind that leads to a full-scale war, but an act that clearly says: this is our retaliation.

“There is no way the Hezbollah sees a strike on Dahieh and do nothing,” they said, referring to the Beirut neighbourhood where Mr Arouri was killed that is a stronghold for Hezbollah.

“Until yesterday, there was still no general mobilisation. The fighters at the borders are from nearby villages, not other regions, which means things haven’t escalated yet,” the source added.

“But that was until last night. Things could change at any moment.”

Measured retaliation?

For Bashir Saade, lecturer in politics and religion at the University of Stirling, Hezbollah's interest lies in a measured retaliation, in line with its strategy since October 7.

“Hezbollah looks at things on a longer trend; they do not react on the spot,” he said.

The group has so far maintained a low-level conflict with Israel across the border aimed at pressuring and deterring the country's war in Gaza.

But both Hezbollah and its Iranian backers have avoided initiating full-scale war and have exercised restraint despite repeated escalations from Israel.

“Hezbollah’s strategy so far has been to establish a pressure front at the border, to destroy strategic military material and dismantle intelligence frameworks,” said Mr Saade.

Historically, political assassinations of Hezbollah officials such as Imad Mughnieh, a senior member of Hezbollah killed by a joint US-Israeli operation, have not sparked a strong retaliation.

Hezbollah members carry the coffin of slain commander Imad Mughnieh at his funeral in the southern suburbs of Beirut in February 2008. AFP
Hezbollah members carry the coffin of slain commander Imad Mughnieh at his funeral in the southern suburbs of Beirut in February 2008. AFP

In the wake of the assassination of Mr Al Arouri, Hezbollah has a similar interest in keeping the war from escalating, say experts.

Analysts see Israel's recent escalation as a way to forcefully impose its objective of pushing Hezbollah out of Lebanon's deep south, which would limit the group's ability to threaten northern Israel and allow the return of the thousands of residents displaced from Israel’s border areas.

“The assassination of Saleh Al Arouri is an attempt to trigger an angry impulse, a miscalculation which would grant Benjamin Netanyahu the same legitimacy he claims to have in Gaza to trigger an all-out war in Lebanon,” said Mr Saade.

“But Hezbollah has no interest in providing this opportunity for Israel; it would be weakened by an all-out war, while it prospers in guerrilla warfare,” said Mr Saade.

Hezbollah just needs to “maintain a front of pressure to create a situation of instability in the north, pushing for an evacuation of northern settlements”, while Israel is pushing for a more violent escalation, which is its “only way” to achieve its military objectives, he added.

Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted near Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel on November 7, 2023. AFP
Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted near Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel on November 7, 2023. AFP

A repeat of 2006?

Hezbollah and Israel last engaged in an all-out war in 2006, when the circumstances were different.

Although analysts say Hezbollah does not want another all-out war, there are more risks of escalation in today's conflict.

Lebanon is also acutely aware of the economic and physical damage that it would sustain in the event of a full-on war. Since 2019, the country has been entrenched in one of the worst economic crisis in modern history.

The 2006 war served to distract from Hezbollah's domestic issues – the group was coming under pressure to disarm, and accused of assassinating former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Hezbollah started the war by launching a cross-border raid into Israel during which it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers.

Israel responded by bombing both Hezbollah and civilian targets, including Beirut's airport, and launching a ground invasion of southern Lebanon.

More than a 1,000 people were killed in Lebanon during the month-long war, which ended with a ceasefire on August 14.

The estimated damaged to Lebanon's civilian infrastructure was around $2.5 billion.

Today's conflict is a “totally different ballgame,” said Imad Salamey, an associate professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University in Beirut.

Hezbollah is just one cog in a much wider conflict, centred on the Israel-Gaza war but featuring conflict between Iran-backed groups and the US and its allies across Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

“Hezbollah’s ability to gain backing and co-ordination among various armed groups in the region is much more available than it was in 2006,” Prof Salamey said.

Since 2006, Hezbollah has itself been active in other conflicts across the region, most notably fighting alongside Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and other Iranian-backed groups in the Syrian Civil War.

The so-called Axis of Resistance is a loose coalition of Iran-backed groups opposed to Israel. Though Iranian-led, they also have the capacity to act independently.

An Israeli soldier, wearing a jacket featuring an image of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the centre of a target, prepares to fire towards a target in Lebanon. EPA
An Israeli soldier, wearing a jacket featuring an image of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the centre of a target, prepares to fire towards a target in Lebanon. EPA

Hezbollah's military threat

Hezbollah has also expanded its military arsenal since 2006 and now has a greater ability to damage Israel.

“Since 2006, Hezbollah's arsenal has significantly expanded; it has drones, long range missiles, and they can challenge the Iron Dome,” said Mr Saade, referring to the Israeli defence system built to intercept rockets.

Mr Nasrallah has said in previous speeches that his group has 100,000 trained fighters and can target every city in Israel.

“He is usually very cautious, so its estimates can be trusted,” Mr Saade said.

Whereas in 2006, Hezbollah may have had about 15,000 missiles in its arsenal, now it is rumoured to possess around 150,000.

“Armed technology has developed so much, Hezbollah today is totally in command of the Lebanese state, it has emerged victorious in Syria, it has logistical support coming in, modern arms, more capacity, training, they’ve learnt more from previous fights,” said Mr Salamey, who pointed to the experience the group would have gained from 2006, and its involvements in conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

“What we saw from Hamas on October 7 … flying people over the border, blowing up border fences. That’s something very minor to what capacities Hezbollah has,” he said.

“Hezbollah commands a much wider ground,” he added.

Hezbollah fighters during a training exercise in Jezzine District, southern Lebanon, in May, 2023. AP Photo
Hezbollah fighters during a training exercise in Jezzine District, southern Lebanon, in May, 2023. AP Photo

All eyes on Nasrallah

Many are waiting for Nasrallah's follow-up speech on Friday to see how Hezbollah might retaliate.

In the group's south Beirut heartland, many may expect a firmer response.

Zainoun Nabousli, a resident of the neighbourhood, said that many people close to Hezbollah are calling for stronger attacks against Israel.

“I realised that a full war is serving Israel's interests, so why would we give them what they want?” he said. He also stressed that Lebanese people remain very divided on the question, with many deeply critical of the Shiite armed group. “Hezbollah is not in the most secure position.”

Expectations are mounting before Mr Nasrallah’s second speech. “Everything depends on the coming days; you can't predict anything any more. But I hope there will be a bit of surprise because we are all waiting for a strong speech,” said Mr Nabousli.

UAE v Ireland

1st ODI, UAE win by 6 wickets

2nd ODI, January 12

3rd ODI, January 14

4th ODI, January 16

FIGHT%20CARD
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Key recommendations
  • Fewer criminals put behind bars and more to serve sentences in the community, with short sentences scrapped and many inmates released earlier.
  • Greater use of curfews and exclusion zones to deliver tougher supervision than ever on criminals.
  • Explore wider powers for judges to punish offenders by blocking them from attending football matches, banning them from driving or travelling abroad through an expansion of ‘ancillary orders’.
  • More Intensive Supervision Courts to tackle the root causes of crime such as alcohol and drug abuse – forcing repeat offenders to take part in tough treatment programmes or face prison.
Kill%20
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RESULTS

5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: M'A Yaromoon, Jesus Rosales (jockey), Khalifa Al Neydai (trainer)

5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: No Riesgo Al Maury, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami

6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: JAP Almahfuz, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi

6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Mahmouda, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi

7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AS Jezan, George Buckell, Ahmed Al Mehairbi

7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Dolman, Antonio Fresu, Bhupath Seemar

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.8-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C200rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%20from%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh111%2C195%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Stats at a glance:

Cost: 1.05 billion pounds (Dh 4.8 billion)

Number in service: 6

Complement 191 (space for up to 285)

Top speed: over 32 knots

Range: Over 7,000 nautical miles

Length 152.4 m

Displacement: 8,700 tonnes

Beam:   21.2 m

Draught: 7.4 m

F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
DUBAI WORLD CUP CARNIVAL CARD

6.30pm Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 2,410m

7.05pm UAE 1000 Guineas Listed $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m

7.40pm Dubai Dash Listed $175,000 (T) 1,000m

8.15pm Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions $100,000 (D) 1.900m

8.50pm Al Fahidi Fort Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,400m

9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (D) 2,000m

 

The National selections

6.30pm: Gifts Of Gold

7.05pm Final Song

7.40pm Equilateral

8.15pm Dark Of Night

8.50pm Mythical Magic

9.25pm Franz Kafka

MATCH INFO

Wales 1 (Bale 45 3')

Croatia 1 (Vlasic 09')

Super Saturday race card

4pm: Mahab Al Shimaal Group 3 | US$350,000 | (Dirt) | 1,200m
4.35pm: Al Bastakiya Listed | $300,000 | (D) | 1,900m
5.10pm: Nad Al Sheba Turf Group 3 | $350,000 | (Turf) | 1,200m
5.45pm: Burj Nahaar Group 3 | $350,000 | (D) | 1,600m
6.20pm: Dubai City of Gold Group 2 | $300,000 | (T) | 2,410m
6.55pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 3 Group 1 | $600,000 | (D) | 2,000m
7.30pm: Jebel Hatta Group 1 | $400,000 | (T) | 1,800m

While you're here
The specs

Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8

Power: 640hp

Torque: 760nm

On sale: 2026

Price: Not announced yet

THE SPECS

Engine: 3-litre V6

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 424hp

Torque: 580 Nm

Price: From Dh399,000

On sale: Now

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBen%20Wheatley%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJason%20Statham%2C%20Jing%20Wu%2C%20Cliff%20Curtis%2C%20Page%20Kennedy%2C%20Cliff%20Curtis%2C%20Melissanthi%20Mahut%20and%20Shuya%20Sophia%20Cai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UK-EU trade at a glance

EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years

Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products

Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries

Smoother border management with use of e-gates

Cutting red tape on import and export of food

Listen to Extra Time
Copa del Rey

Barcelona v Real Madrid
Semi-final, first leg
Wednesday (midnight UAE)

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Women’s World T20, Asia Qualifier

UAE results
Beat China by 16 runs
Lost to Thailand by 10 wickets
Beat Nepal by five runs
Beat Hong Kong by eight wickets
Beat Malaysia by 34 runs

Standings (P, W, l, NR, points)

1. Thailand 5 4 0 1 9
2. UAE 5 4 1 0 8
3. Nepal 5 2 1 2 6
4. Hong Kong 5 2 2 1 5
5. Malaysia 5 1 4 0 2
6. China 5 0 5 0 0

Final
Thailand v UAE, Monday, 7am

GOODBYE%20JULIA
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohamed%20Kordofani%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiran%20Riak%2C%20Eiman%20Yousif%2C%20Nazar%20Goma%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home. 

Info

What: 11th edition of the Mubadala World Tennis Championship

When: December 27-29, 2018

Confirmed: men: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Kevin Anderson, Dominic Thiem, Hyeon Chung, Karen Khachanov; women: Venus Williams

Tickets: www.ticketmaster.ae, Virgin megastores or call 800 86 823

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
  • November 2021: First 17 volumes launched 
  • November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
  • October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
  • November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
  • Flexible work arrangements
  • Pension support
  • Mental well-being assistance
  • Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
  • Financial well-being incentives 
Other simple ideas for sushi rice dishes

Cheat’s nigiri 
This is easier to make than sushi rolls. With damp hands, form the cooled rice into small tablet shapes. Place slices of fresh, raw salmon, mackerel or trout (or smoked salmon) lightly touched with wasabi, then press, wasabi side-down, onto the rice. Serve with soy sauce and pickled ginger.

Easy omurice
This fusion dish combines Asian fried rice with a western omelette. To make, fry cooked and cooled sushi rice with chopped vegetables such as carrot and onion and lashings of sweet-tangy ketchup, then wrap in a soft egg omelette.

Deconstructed sushi salad platter 
This makes a great, fuss-free sharing meal. Arrange sushi rice on a platter or board, then fill the space with all your favourite sushi ingredients (edamame beans, cooked prawns or tuna, tempura veggies, pickled ginger and chilli tofu), with a dressing or dipping sauce on the side.

HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Saeed%20Teebi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%C2%A0House%20of%20Anansi%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Who has been sanctioned?

Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.

Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.

Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.

Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.

THE SPECS

Engine: 4.4-litre V8

Transmission: Automatic

Power: 530bhp 

Torque: 750Nm 

Price: Dh535,000

On sale: Now

How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE

When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.

The biog

Fast facts on Neil Armstrong’s personal life:

  • Armstrong was born on August 5, 1930, in Wapakoneta, Ohio
  • He earned his private pilot’s license when he was 16 – he could fly before he could drive
  • There was tragedy in his married life: Neil and Janet Armstrong’s daughter Karen died at the age of two in 1962 after suffering a brain tumour. She was the couple’s only daughter. Their two sons, Rick and Mark, consulted on the film
  • After Armstrong departed Nasa, he bought a farm in the town of Lebanon, Ohio, in 1971 – its airstrip allowed him to tap back into his love of flying
  • In 1994, Janet divorced Neil after 38 years of marriage. Two years earlier, Neil met Carol Knight, who became his second wife in 1994 
Updated: January 04, 2024, 5:13 PM`