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Israel is gambling that its assassination of senior Hamas official Saleh Al Arouri in Beirut will not lead to a major escalation in its conflict with Hezbollah and Iran, analysts told The National.
The killing of Mr Arouri, who was deputy head of Hamas's political bureau, in a drone attack is seen as a significant escalation and a major break of the informal rules of engagement between Israel and Hezbollah.
Israel may have felt emboldened to carry out the strike – its first in Beirut since 2006 – by the relative restraint shown by Hezbollah and Iran since the outbreak of cross-border fighting between Israeli forces and the Iran-backed group on October 8.
“The government of Israel recognises Iran’s strategy and its limitations,” said Imad Salamey, an associate professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University in Beirut.
“Therefore Israel is more willing to escalate in terms of confrontation because they know it’s unlikely to lead to an open confrontation – either on the [Lebanese] front or in the region.”
Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, have rallied to militarily support their ally Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, after the group's attack on Israel October 7.
The Lebanese Hezbollah group has led the fight from its homeland – and in some cases Syria – where it has waged a contained border conflict with the stated aim of pressuring and deterring Israel from its assault on the besieged Gaza Strip.
The conflict in Lebanon has so far claimed more than 160 lives, including at least 19 civilians, although the vast majority of those killed have been Hezbollah militants and allied fighters. On the Israeli side, the death toll stands at nine soldiers and five civilians.
But the Iran-backed group has stopped short of initiating full-scale war, remaining restrained despite Israel’s increasingly aggressive responses on Lebanon. So, too, have other Iran-backed groups such as Yemen’s Houthis and Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah.
Hezbollah in difficult position
Israel's decision to hit Beirut puts Hezbollah in a difficult position after it publicly declared it would not tolerate any Israeli assassinations in Lebanon.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned in a televised speech last year that targeted assassinations by Israel in Lebanon would “not be tolerated".
"We will not allow Lebanon to become a new field of assassinations for Israel,” he said.
And in another speech in November, Mr Nasrallah warned Israel against making a “mistake” which would “exact a price you can’t even imagine”.
But despite Mr Nasrallah’s rhetoric, Hezbollah has so far shown little desire to trigger a major war with Israel since it became active on the Lebanese front in support of Hamas. Not the civilian deaths, nor the major destruction in parts of southern Lebanon close to the border, nor the triple-digit Hezbollah death toll has been enough to elicit a strong response.
It remains to be seen what form Hezbollah’s – and Iran’s – retaliation will take.
In a statement on Tuesday evening, Hezbollah called the killing of Mr Arouri “a serious assault on Lebanon, its people, its security, its sovereignty, and its resistance” and promised the "crimes will not pass without response and punishment".
While the strike is an escalation, Israel is gambling that Iran will maintain its strategy of avoiding a major war, despite being under pressure to save face, experts say.
Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre, a Beirut-based think tank, said Mr Al Arouri’s assassination was a significant and “direct strike against the first brass of Hamas”.
“But the Iranian strategy is to play a secondary support role in this conflict," he added.
"It would be difficult to see them turn this into a major war between Hezbollah and Israel.”
Still, Iran and proxies will “try to calibrate the response to save face”.
Israel's gamble?
A veteran Palestinian official in Gaza who handles communications between the Palestinian Authority and various factions told The National: "Israel is gambling".
He added Israel was "edging towards a bigger war with Hezbollah and telling the US it is not afraid to expand the war, even without Washington standing by its side".
"It is logical to assume that this gamble is very dangerous and has many consequences."
But the group has attempted to walk the fine line between mid-intensity conflict and full-scale war with Israel.
“Israel recognises that Iran doesn’t want regional war, nor does it want an open confrontation on any of its fronts where allies exist,” Mr Salamey said. “Instead it wants to maintain asymmetrical long-term warfare where Iran can negotiate political concessions” through its proxies.
Iran-backed militant groups across the Middle East – including the Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq – have united to support their ally Hamas in Gaza and pressure Israel.
Israel is under pressure to showcase a victory in the war in Gaza. Since Hamas killed 1,200 people on October 7, more than 174 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza, and tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced from northern Israel due to the threat from Hezbollah.
Israel has so far failed in its stated aim of eradicating Hamas, despite Gaza's Ministry of Health reporting the deaths of more than 22,300 people in the enclave, mostly civilians.
According to Mr Salamey, Hamas is persisting with operations in Gaza and has retained logistical capabilities. The group has continued to launch missiles into Israel, inflict serious harm on the Israeli military in Gaza daily and, most importantly, "they’ve made the Israeli invasion extremely costly for the Israelis on all levels: morally, politically, internationally and economically".
“The cost of Israel sustaining this war is not easy. Hamas has adapted to the situation and continued its operations,” Mr Salamey said.
“Israel is desperate to showcase some kind of tangible victory. And it is crossing red lines and taking a risk of a major escalation just to make some kind of win, which [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu and his government can sell domestically and internationally.”
The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
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The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
FIXTURES
December 28
Stan Wawrinka v Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Milos Raonic v Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 29 - semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Stan Wawrinka / Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic / Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 30
3rd/4th place play-off, 5pm
Final, 7pm
Sheikh Zayed's poem
When it is unveiled at Abu Dhabi Art, the Standing Tall exhibition will appear as an interplay of poetry and art. The 100 scarves are 100 fragments surrounding five, figurative, female sculptures, and both sculptures and scarves are hand-embroidered by a group of refugee women artisans, who used the Palestinian cross-stitch embroidery art of tatreez. Fragments of Sheikh Zayed’s poem Your Love is Ruling My Heart, written in Arabic as a love poem to his nation, are embroidered onto both the sculptures and the scarves. Here is the English translation.
Your love is ruling over my heart
Your love is ruling over my heart, even a mountain can’t bear all of it
Woe for my heart of such a love, if it befell it and made it its home
You came on me like a gleaming sun, you are the cure for my soul of its sickness
Be lenient on me, oh tender one, and have mercy on who because of you is in ruins
You are like the Ajeed Al-reem [leader of the gazelle herd] for my country, the source of all of its knowledge
You waddle even when you stand still, with feet white like the blooming of the dates of the palm
Oh, who wishes to deprive me of sleep, the night has ended and I still have not seen you
You are the cure for my sickness and my support, you dried my throat up let me go and damp it
Help me, oh children of mine, for in his love my life will pass me by.
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Canada
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'The Ice Road'
Director: Jonathan Hensleigh
Stars: Liam Neeson, Amber Midthunder, Laurence Fishburne
2/5
Electoral College Victory
Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate.
Popular Vote Tally
The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.
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Juliot Vinolia’s checklist for adopting alternate-day fasting
- Don’t do it more than once in three days
- Don’t go under 700 calories on fasting days
- Ensure there is sufficient water intake, as the body can go in dehydration mode
- Ensure there is enough roughage (fibre) in the food on fasting days as well
- Do not binge on processed or fatty foods on non-fasting days
- Complement fasting with plant-based foods, fruits, vegetables, seafood. Cut out processed meats and processed carbohydrates
- Manage your sleep
- People with existing gastric or mental health issues should avoid fasting
- Do not fast for prolonged periods without supervision by a qualified expert
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Results
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,600m; Winner: Rawat Al Reef, Adrie de Vries (jockey), Abdallah Al Hammadi (trainer)
5.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Noof KB, Richard Mullen, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Seven Skies, Bernardo Pinheiro, Qaiss Aboud
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: UAE Arabian Derby – Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Dergham Athbah, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Daggash
7.30pm: Emirates Championship – Group 1 (PA) Dh1,000,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Somoud, Richard Mullen, Jean de Roualle
8pm: Abu Dhabi Championship – Group 3 (TB) Dh380,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Irish Freedom, Antonio Fresu, Satish Seemar
Results
2.15pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Arrab, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
2.45pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mahaleel, Antonio Fresu, Ernst Oertel.
3.15pm: Sheikh Ahmed bin Rashid Al Maktoum handicap (TB) Dh200,000 2,000m; Winner: Dolmen, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
3.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Amang Alawda, Sandro Paiva, Bakhit Al Ketbi.
4.15pm: The Crown Prince of Sharjah Cup Prestige (PA) Dh200,000 1,200m; Winner: AF Alwajel, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
4.45pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: Al Jazi, Jesus Rosales, Eric Lemartinel.
RESULTS
6.30pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Final Song, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
Winner Almanaara, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Grand Argentier, Brett Doyle, Doug Watson.
8.15pm Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Major Partnership, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner Universal Order, Richard Mullen, David Simcock.
MATCH INFO
First Test at Barbados
West Indies won by 381 runs
Second Test at Antigua
West Indies won by 10 wickets
Third Test at St Lucia
February 9-13
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Mumbai Indians 213/6 (20 ov)
Royal Challengers Bangalore 167/8 (20 ov)
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The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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Concrete and Gold
Foo Fighters
RCA records
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Details
Through Her Lens: The stories behind the photography of Eva Sereny
Forewords by Jacqueline Bisset and Charlotte Rampling, ACC Art Books
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Structural%20weaknesses%20facing%20Israel%20economy
%3Cp%3E1.%20Labour%20productivity%20is%20lower%20than%20the%20average%20of%20the%20developed%20economies%2C%20particularly%20in%20the%20non-tradable%20industries.%3Cbr%3E2.%20The%20low%20level%20of%20basic%20skills%20among%20workers%20and%20the%20high%20level%20of%20inequality%20between%20those%20with%20various%20skills.%3Cbr%3E3.%20Low%20employment%20rates%2C%20particularly%20among%20Arab%20women%20and%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jewish%20men.%3Cbr%3E4.%20A%20lack%20of%20basic%20knowledge%20required%20for%20integration%20into%20the%20labour%20force%2C%20due%20to%20the%20lack%20of%20core%20curriculum%20studies%20in%20schools%20for%20Ultra-Othodox%20Jews.%3Cbr%3E5.%20A%20need%20to%20upgrade%20and%20expand%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20particularly%20mass%20transit%20infrastructure.%3Cbr%3E6.%20The%20poverty%20rate%20at%20more%20than%20double%20the%20OECD%20average.%3Cbr%3E7.%20Population%20growth%20of%20about%202%20per%20cent%20per%20year%2C%20compared%20to%200.6%20per%20cent%20OECD%20average%20posing%20challenge%20for%20fiscal%20policy%20and%20underpinning%20pressure%20on%20education%2C%20health%20care%2C%20welfare%20housing%20and%20physical%20infrastructure%2C%20which%20will%20increase%20in%20the%20coming%20years.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
All%20The%20Light%20We%20Cannot%20See%20
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