After its bloodiest weekend in its conflict with Israel, what is Hezbollah's strategy?


Jamie Prentis
  • English
  • Arabic

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With 26 Hezbollah fighters having been killed – about half of them over the weekend alone – the past two weeks have been the deadliest of the Iran-backed group’s long-running conflict with Israel since a war in 2006.

But Hezbollah is continuing relatively low-level clashes with Israel, even as the intensity gradually rises, with a second front on Lebanon's southern border yet to fully open.

Experts tell The National that what happens next could depend on the group's close co-ordination with Iran, especially if Tehran sees its Palestinian ally “seriously weakened", according to Karim Bitar, a professor of International Relations at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

The Iran-backed Lebanese armed group, part of the Tehran-led Axis of Resistance, reportedly put its death toll during that month-long conflict in the summer of 2006 at about 250.

That was a full-scale, cross-country war that devastated villages and neighbourhoods in Lebanon, unlike the skirmishes of the last two weeks. Around 1,200 Lebanese civilians, 44 Israelis and 121 Israeli soldiers also died in the 34-day war.

For now, exchanges of fire have followed unwritten rules of engagement between the two sides, a managed tit-for-tat struggle. Thus far, neither has wanted to revisit the destruction of 2006.

As Israel pummels Gaza, the Lebanese armed group, for now, has remained relatively restrained. But if Israel pursues a ground invasion of Gaza – said to be imminent – that could change, leading to rapid escalation.

So, is Hezbollah's tactic of managed escalation working, and what are they trying to achieve?

“Thus far it has continued to be skirmishes around the border areas and part of Hezbollah's tactics to show solidarity with Hamas and also distract the Israeli military campaign from being relaxed in its approach to Gaza,” said Imad Salamey, an associate professor of political science and international affairs at the Lebanese American University in Beirut.

“It thus far has been played out within the rules of engagement,” he said while adding that how those rules will look when Israel escalates even further in Gaza remains to be seen. An increase in fighting on the southern border could be expected or missiles could be fired on major Israeli cities, which could provoke significant retaliatory air strikes.

“We really have to keep in mind that Hezbollah is an integral part of a regional axis that had been co-ordinating its strategy (with Iran) for the past years and that is still coordinating its response,” Prof Bitar said.

“The organic link between Iran and Hezbollah is much stronger than the links between Iran and Hamas.

“As the death count increases, if the operation in Gaza becomes a bloodbath, if Hamas is seriously weakened, there is a genuine risk that Iran could allow Hezbollah, maybe not to open a new front altogether, but at least to strike at Israel from the northern front, to alleviate the pressure on Hamas and Gaza."

Hezbollah, the Shiite armed group conceived by Iran which first emerged in the Lebanese civil war to oppose Israel's invasion of the country, retains strong and vocal backing within its main support base.

That is despite the deaths of at least 24 Hezbollah fighters, Prof Salamey said. “The support base now is fully mobilised, fully charged, fully behind the party”.

“But all that doesn't matter, this is a proxy group, operating on behalf of Iranian interests in the region. What matters is how Iran is looking at this and seeing this fight,” he added.

And within Lebanon, including among many in the Shiite community, much of the country is deeply opposed to the idea of a new war, even if Hezbollah can operate with virtual impunity.

Lebanon's economic crisis

“So far we have seen a certain restraint because Hezbollah realises that the circumstances have completely changed,” said Prof Bitar.

“We are no longer in 2006, Lebanon is in the midst of a complete state collapse. The communal tensions in Lebanon are still there. Other communities and most Lebanese citizens of all sects are extremely hostile to seeing their country engulfed in a new conflict that would be devastating.”

Embroiled since 2019 in one of the worst economic crises in modern times, Lebanon has been without a president for about a year, has a caretaker government and important positions – including the central bank governor – are being run by acting heads.

Amid all of this, while Hezbollah's well-oiled media machine and senior figures have been continually issuing their messages, the man at the top has remained conspicuously silent.

Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah has yet to speak publicly about the escalation, since the escalation of the Israel-Gaza war more than two weeks ago when Hamas fighters breached Gaza's fences and attacked Israeli settlements and army garrisons, killing 1,400 people, mostly civilians.

On Sunday, Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah said there need not be any concern and that Mr Nasrallah was closely monitoring developments and directing commanders in battle.

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Part three: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

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The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Global Fungi Facts

• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil

Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion

The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.

Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".

The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.

He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.

"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.

As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.

'Joker'

Directed by: Todd Phillips

Starring: Joaquin Phoenix

Rating: Five out of five stars

While you're here
UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
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Where can I submit a sample?

Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.

Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:

  • Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
  • Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
  • Al Towayya in Al Ain
  • NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
  • Bareen International Hospital
  • NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
  • NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
  • NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Airev
Started: September 2023
Founder: Muhammad Khalid
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: Generative AI
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
 
Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Ajax v Juventus, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)

Match on BeIN Sports

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League quarter-final second leg:

Juventus 1 Ajax 2

Ajax advance 3-2 on aggregate

Women & Power: A Manifesto

Mary Beard

Profile Books and London Review of Books 

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Jetour T1 specs

Engine: 2-litre turbocharged

Power: 254hp

Torque: 390Nm

Price: From Dh126,000

Available: Now

Getting there

The flights

Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.

The stay

Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net 

Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama

Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com

Match info

Uefa Champions League Group B

Barcelona v Tottenham Hotspur, midnight

MATCH INFO

Juventus 1 (Dybala 45')

Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')

Red card: Rodrigo Bentancur (Juventus)

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NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

F1 The Movie

Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Rating: 4/5

The biog

Title: General Practitioner with a speciality in cardiology

Previous jobs: Worked in well-known hospitals Jaslok and Breach Candy in Mumbai, India

Education: Medical degree from the Government Medical College in Nagpur

How it all began: opened his first clinic in Ajman in 1993

Family: a 90-year-old mother, wife and two daughters

Remembers a time when medicines from India were purchased per kilo

The biog

Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi

Age: 23

How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them

Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need

Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman

Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs 

Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing

The specs

Engine: 4.0-litre, twin-turbocharged V8

Transmission: nine-speed automatic

Power: 630bhp

Torque: 900Nm

Price: Dh810,000

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UK-EU trade at a glance

EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years

Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products

Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries

Smoother border management with use of e-gates

Cutting red tape on import and export of food

Profile

Company: Justmop.com

Date started: December 2015

Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan

Sector: Technology and home services

Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai

Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month

Funding:  The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups. 

W.
Wael Kfoury
(Rotana)

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The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Power: 268bhp / 536bhp
Torque: 343Nm / 686Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
On sale: Later this year
Company%20Profile
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Brief scores:

QPR 0

Watford 1

Capoue 45' 1

The specs

Price, base / as tested Dh12 million

Engine 8.0-litre quad-turbo, W16

Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch auto

Power 1479 @ 6,700rpm

Torque 1600Nm @ 2,000rpm 0-100kph: 2.6 seconds 0-200kph: 6.1 seconds

Top speed 420 kph (governed)

Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)

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'Avengers: Infinity War'
Dir: The Russo Brothers
Starring: Chris Evans, Chris Pratt, Tom Holland, Robert Downey Junior, Scarlett Johansson, Elizabeth Olsen
Four stars

LILO & STITCH

Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders

Director: Dean Fleischer Camp

Rating: 4.5/5

Updated: October 23, 2023, 4:36 PM`