The conclusion of Michel Aoun’s presidency on October 31 has left the country in a power vacuum that has little prospect of being resolved anytime soon, with only a disempowered caretaker Cabinet serving as place holder.
A growing rift between the Iran-backed Hezbollah group and its Christian ally the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) threatens to further paralyse the arduous process of electing a new president.
A once-harmonious marriage of convenience between Hezbollah and the FPM has become tenuous, hindering agreement on a presidential candidate for the camp.
The two have shared a mutually beneficial relationship since 2006, when a memorandum called the ‘Mar Mikhael agreement’ was signed between the two groups. The alliance helped Michel Aoun ascend to the long-coveted presidency in 2016, in exchange for the FPM’s support for Hezbollah in the aftermath of the 2006 war with Israel.
It heralded an enduring era of deeply polarised politics that has evolved to the present day, with an Iran-backed bloc led by Hezbollah and a Saudi-backed Sunni-aligned bloc led by the Lebanese forces.
The ideological divide between blocs makes reaching a two thirds majority agreement on a presidential candidate difficult without internal agreements between political parties.
Why is there a widening rift forming between Hezbollah and FPM?
Sami Atallah, director of Lebanon-based think tank The Policy Initiative, referred to the Hezbollah-FPM arrangement as a “symbiotic relationship.”
“The two parties need each other. In a way they’re stuck to each other but they’re unable to forge the way forward.”
The dysfunctional codependency has become apparent as Gebran Bassil — the current leader of the FPM and Mr Aoun’s son-in-law — has refused to support Hezbollah’s preferred presidential candidate, instead levelling a number of criticisms at his allies.
It is an open secret that Mr Bassil has set his sights on the presidency. For six years, he was considered a top adviser and shadow to the then president and his father-in-law, Michel Aoun.
Resentment on both sides has escalated as Hezbollah continues to dismiss Mr Bassil's ambitions for the presidency, instead inclining towards ex-MP Suleiman Frangieh — another ally and the leader of the smaller Marada movement — or army general Joseph Aoun. Both are believed to be potential consensus candidates for which rival political parties might compromise. Mr Bassil has categorically rejected both.
In Lebanon, agreement on candidates is often a negotiation where political compromise is necessary between allies. In the absence of an officially announced candidate, Hezbollah and its allies have employed a strategy of submitting blank ballots, which until last week had consistently outnumbered the official candidate backed by the Lebanese Forces, Michel Moawad.
But in the ninth presidential session last Thursday, some FPM members deviated from the blank ballot strategy, sending a clear threat of non-compliance to Hezbollah.
Why is Gebran Bassil unhappy with Hezbollah?
Since the end of his father-in-law’s term, Mr Bassil has attempted to rally support from both domestic and international backers in recent weeks — largely failing to get around Hezbollah’s decision.
“When it came to Aoun, [Hezbollah] felt they owed him support” in exchange for FPM backing Hezbollah during the 2006 war with Israel, said Karim Bitar, the director of the Institute of Political Science at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut.
“This is not the case for Gebran Bassil who was never loved by Hezbollah’s leadership or its rank and file,” he told The National.
Sami Atallah of The Policy Institute elaborated that the FPM had alienated itself from the majority of Lebanon’s political leaders.
“The FPM doesn’t have many allies that are willing to lift Bassil to the presidency,” Dr Atallah said. “And they have numerous enemies. Bassil is pretty much not electable and I think Hezbollah realises this.”
“All he can do is try to nominate a candidate of his liking.”
Bargain and compromise
Although he appears to have acknowledged — but not given up on — his slim prospects for the presidency, political experts say getting Mr Bassil to forsake the influence he held during his father-in-law’s term will be difficult. This would explain why Hezbollah’s unofficial primary choice of Suleiman Frangieh is unfavourable for Mr Bassil.
“Frangieh would never agree to a behind the scenes co-presidency and would never allow his presidential mandate to be torpedoed,” said Mr Bitar.
The FPM leader has been vocal in his dissatisfaction at being shouldered out, accusing Hezbollah of being disloyal and insincere in its alliance.
“Nobody can impose a candidate or an ultimatum on the Free Patriotic Movement,” he reiterated in a speech on Sunday. He demanded his party’s say in choosing an alternative candidate for the post of head of state.
Tension between the two allies culminated in early December when Hezbollah attended a caretaker Cabinet session boycotted by the FPM, appearing to side with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
“Our free existence is more precious than any understanding,” Mr Bassil said following the incident, clearly referring to the Mar Mikhael agreement.
Thaw in relations unlikely to amount to a total break
Isolated, the FPM needs Hezbollah’s support to maintain control of its share of state institutions, Mr Bitar told The National.
And to preserve its position as a considerable parliamentary bloc, Hezbollah needs to nurture its alliance with its primary Christian backer.
“It is a very tense moment. But I don't think it will significantly change the political balance of power,” Mr Bitar said.
There is hope. Mr Bassil has signalled he would be willing to back a third candidate, and Hezbollah has suggested it is willing to compromise.
But a deepening of the internal rift — in a landscape with a deeply divided parliament and opposing ideologies — would further prolong a political vacuum that has already left the state paralysed.
According to Dr Atallah, “this whole presidential process is disconnected from the reality of what’s happening in Lebanon’s society and economy.”
“Unfortunately, we’re hostage to a situation where electing a president is subject to the process of bargaining.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
Sri Lanka Test squad:
Dimuth Karunaratne (stand-in captain), Niroshan Dickwella (vice captain), Lahiru Thirimanne, Kaushal Silva, Kusal Mendis, Kusal Janith Perera, Milinda Siriwardana, Dhananjaya de Silva, Oshada Fernando, Angelo Perera, Suranga Lakmal, Kasun Rajitha, Vishwa Fernando, Chamika Karunaratne, Mohamed Shiraz, Lakshan Sandakan and Lasith Embuldeniya.
Biggest%20applause
%3Cp%3EAsked%20to%20rate%20Boris%20Johnson's%20leadership%20out%20of%2010%2C%20Mr%20Sunak%20awarded%20a%20full%2010%20for%20delivering%20Brexit%20%E2%80%94%20remarks%20that%20earned%20him%20his%20biggest%20round%20of%20applause%20of%20the%20night.%20%22My%20views%20are%20clear%2C%20when%20he%20was%20great%20he%20was%20great%20and%20it%20got%20to%20a%20point%20where%20we%20need%20to%20move%20forward.%20In%20delivering%20a%20solution%20to%20Brexit%20and%20winning%20an%20election%20that's%20a%2010%2F10%20-%20you've%20got%20to%20give%20the%20guy%20credit%20for%20that%2C%20no-one%20else%20could%20probably%20have%20done%20that.%22%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Quarter-finals
Saturday (all times UAE)
England v Australia, 11.15am
New Zealand v Ireland, 2.15pm
Sunday
Wales v France, 11.15am
Japan v South Africa, 2.15pm
Did you know?
Brunch has been around, is some form or another, for more than a century. The word was first mentioned in print in an 1895 edition of Hunter’s Weekly, after making the rounds among university students in Britain. The article, entitled Brunch: A Plea, argued the case for a later, more sociable weekend meal. “By eliminating the need to get up early on Sunday, brunch would make life brighter for Saturday night carousers. It would promote human happiness in other ways as well,” the piece read. “It is talk-compelling. It puts you in a good temper, it makes you satisfied with yourself and your fellow beings, it sweeps away the worries and cobwebs of the week.” More than 100 years later, author Guy Beringer’s words still ring true, especially in the UAE, where brunches are often used to mark special, sociable occasions.
500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Yuki Means Happiness
Alison Jean Lester
John Murray
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The biog
Age: 59
From: Giza Governorate, Egypt
Family: A daughter, two sons and wife
Favourite tree: Ghaf
Runner up favourite tree: Frankincense
Favourite place on Sir Bani Yas Island: “I love all of Sir Bani Yas. Every spot of Sir Bani Yas, I love it.”
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
The specS: 2018 Toyota Camry
Price: base / as tested: Dh91,000 / Dh114,000
Engine: 3.5-litre V6
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 298hp @ 6,600rpm
Torque: 356Nm @ 4,700rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
More from Neighbourhood Watch
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Scoreline:
Barcelona 2
Suarez 85', Messi 86'
Atletico Madrid 0
Red card: Diego Costa 28' (Atletico)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Results
Stage seven
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates, in 3:20:24
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 1s
3. Pello Bilbao (ESP) Bahrain-Victorious, at 5s
General Classification
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates, in 25:38:16
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 22s
3. Pello Bilbao (ESP) Bahrain-Victorious, at 48s
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 720hp
Torque: 770Nm
Price: Dh1,100,000
On sale: now
