Lebanese and Israeli officials say there has been positive progress during maritime border talks between the two countries and US mediators have recently been back in the region in a bid to get progress.
But as a potential deal takes shape behind closed doors, Lebanese political rhetoric surrounding it has been loaded.
Officials in the country have promoted the benefits of an agreement, presenting it as the key to unlocking oil and gas resources and as a solution to Lebanon’s economic problems.
But energy experts in Lebanon say the rhetoric is largely populist appeasement.
Areas in Cyprus and Israel’s Exclusive Economic Zones, which border Lebanon’s waters, have proven to be rich in hydrocarbons. This, along with some seismic assessments conducted by surveyors in Lebanese waters, has raised hopes that the country's seas will also yield significant quantities of oil and gas.
But that is not necessarily the case, warn experts who also say that politicians should not pin solutions to today's crisis on a potential windfall from hydrocarbons down the road.
Exploration, they point out, is a long and prospective process. It is impossible to know when gas will be found and whether it will be abundant enough to warrant extraction.
"We cannot know how much a prospective field contains until we drill," said Marc Ayoub, an energy researcher at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs.
There is also a lengthy process of building the infrastructure to support the sector if and when oil and gas are found.
The momentum in negotiations comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions ― Iran-backed Hezbollah has threatened to attack Israel if it continues with its plan to extract gas from a field near disputed waters in September.
What is Israel and Lebanon's maritime dispute about?
Lebanon and Israel, formally at war since 1948, have no diplomatic ties and have done little to formally agree on the border between their two countries. Both claim an approximately 860 square kilometre section of the Mediterranean Sea.
The impetus to agree on where the boundary between the countries stood became more important when Israel discovered and began to extract oil and gas in its waters.
Since a maritime dispute between the two countries began in 2007, various rounds of US-mediated negotiations have taken place.
But talks have proceeded at a distinctly faster pace since June.
What is Lebanon's 'unified stance'?
Amos Hochstein, the Israeli-born US diplomat mediating between the two countries, has attributed the “positive” direction of the talks to the unified position adopted by Lebanon’s three leaders – President Michel Aoun, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri ― whom he met with last week.
The three men are from different political factions and previously had different red lines on any agreement.
The US made it a precondition to resuming the stalled talks that Lebanon agree on a unified position regarding the negotiations. This essentially means that if negotiators finalise a deal with Israel it will not then be blocked by a different part of the Lebanese state with its own demands.
But Mr Ayoub said the momentum created by this unified stance is also due to political pressure to make Lebanon concede a claim on the additional maritime territory.
Some energy experts, including Mr Ayoub, believe Lebanon is technically entitled to more of the maritime area than they are now negotiating over.
Line 23 is the maritime line officially claimed by Lebanese negotiators. The Qana prospective gas field sits mostly to the Lebanese north of the line and some lies to the south.
However, complicating the matter is that in 2011 a group of Lebanese army specialists - backed by the UK Hydrographic Office – demarked an area to the south which they said should be Lebanon's boundary named Line 29. This would give Lebanon about 1,400 square kilometres more territory than Line 23.
Claiming line 29 would put part of the Karish gas field that Israel is planning to start exploiting inside Lebanese territory.
However, Lebanon's negotiators have been working on the basis of the more northerly Line 23 ― in effect conceding the 1,400 square kilometres to Israel. This line cuts the Qana prospective gasfield near its furthest edge.
Israel is claiming that the border should follow Line 1, which would give it a further 860 square kilometres of sea.
Although the Lebanese survey placed the prospective border at Line 29, a decree amending the new co-ordinates of the frontier to match this was never ratified by Mr Aoun or sent to the UN.
Doing so would have officially registered the maritime area north of Line 29 as disputed under international law.
“The Lebanese position today is mainly focused on Line 23 and a little beyond so Lebanon can get all of Qana," Mr Ayoub said. "The compromise is all of Qana for Lebanon and all of Karish for Israel”.
It remains to be seen whether Lebanon’s demand will be met, with Mr Hochstein promising to deliver Israel’s response in the coming weeks.
Dysfunctional politics
Mr Ayoub worries that conceding Line 29 will cost the struggling country dearly in the long term.
He believes that Lebanon “conceded Line 29 because of US political pressure”.
But former US diplomat Frederic Hof, who previously mediated the border dispute from 2011 to 2012, said Lebanon's dysfunctional politicians were at fault for not making a deal years ago and squandering the potential benefit.
He said the years of previous failed negotiations were “a case study in political dysfunction, for which the Lebanese people are paying a high and totally unjustifiable price”.
Mr Hof proposed what became known as the Hof Line, which falls north of Line 23 just above the Qana potential gasfield but south of Israel's Line 1 demand.
It would put both the Qana and Karish gasfields in Israeli territory but give Lebanon about 480 square kilometres more territory than Israel's demands of Line 1.
However, he said that agreeing to that offer in 2012 would have ended the maritime dispute and allowed Lebanon to begin exploring for and producing hydrocarbons in potentially lucrative waters.
The slow pace of the talks under Mr Mikati’s 2012 government — rocked by political assassinations and upheaval — and its failure to accept the Hof Line ended up costing Lebanon “ten years and billions of dollars of revenues,” Mr Hof said.
The Hof Line proposal was taken off the table at the end of the US diplomat's tenure. Although Lebanon tried to negotiate a slightly improved offer in the years after, Mr Hof said that talks effectively returned to the start.
The struggling Mediterranean nation is in its fourth year of a prolonged financial crisis that has wrecked public institutions and brought the state to the point of collapse. The local currency has plummeted in value, causing severe inflation and leaving nearly 80 per cent of the population impoverished.
Shortages in power, diesel, medicine and water have come to define the economic crisis for residents.
In short, Lebanon is badly in need of a solution to the maritime dispute so it can exploit offshore prospects.
Best-case scenario
Ten years after the Hof Line was presented, Mr Mikati is again prime minister, albeit in a caretaker capacity, and struggling to form a new government during a period of economic upheaval.
But all the experts in the energy sector reiterate that a deal is just the first step.
“Even if a new compromise is agreed to ― and I hope it is ― several more years will pass before Lebanon is able to derive revenue from natural gas,” Mr Hof said.
Historically, Lebanon’s leadership have not been known for expedience or efficiency.
Mr Ayoub echoed Mr Hof's warning about the timetable involved and said that Lebanon would need at least five years if there are no delays, calling it the country's best-case scenario.
The specs
Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Power: 300hp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: Dh189,900
On sale: now
AVOID SCAMMERS: TIPS FROM EMIRATES NBD
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Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Steve Smith (capt), David Warner, Cameron Bancroft, Jackson Bird, Pat Cummins, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Shaun Marsh, Tim Paine, Chadd Sayers, Mitchell Starc.
What is Folia?
Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed bin Talal's new plant-based menu will launch at Four Seasons hotels in Dubai this November. A desire to cater to people looking for clean, healthy meals beyond green salad is what inspired Prince Khaled and American celebrity chef Matthew Kenney to create Folia. The word means "from the leaves" in Latin, and the exclusive menu offers fine plant-based cuisine across Four Seasons properties in Los Angeles, Bahrain and, soon, Dubai.
Kenney specialises in vegan cuisine and is the founder of Plant Food Wine and 20 other restaurants worldwide. "I’ve always appreciated Matthew’s work," says the Saudi royal. "He has a singular culinary talent and his approach to plant-based dining is prescient and unrivalled. I was a fan of his long before we established our professional relationship."
Folia first launched at The Four Seasons Hotel Los Angeles at Beverly Hills in July 2018. It is available at the poolside Cabana Restaurant and for in-room dining across the property, as well as in its private event space. The food is vibrant and colourful, full of fresh dishes such as the hearts of palm ceviche with California fruit, vegetables and edible flowers; green hearb tacos filled with roasted squash and king oyster barbacoa; and a savoury coconut cream pie with macadamia crust.
In March 2019, the Folia menu reached Gulf shores, as it was introduced at the Four Seasons Hotel Bahrain Bay, where it is served at the Bay View Lounge. Next, on Tuesday, November 1 – also known as World Vegan Day – it will come to the UAE, to the Four Seasons Resort Dubai at Jumeirah Beach and the Four Seasons DIFC, both properties Prince Khaled has spent "considerable time at and love".
There are also plans to take Folia to several more locations throughout the Middle East and Europe.
While health-conscious diners will be attracted to the concept, Prince Khaled is careful to stress Folia is "not meant for a specific subset of customers. It is meant for everyone who wants a culinary experience without the negative impact that eating out so often comes with."
SPECS
Toyota land Cruiser 2020 5.7L VXR
Engine: 5.7-litre V8
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 362hp
Torque: 530Nm
Price: Dh329,000 (base model 4.0L EXR Dh215,900)
Mountain%20Boy
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SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20IPHONE%2014
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ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
Company%20Profile
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RACECARD
6pm Emaar Dubai Sprint – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Turf) 1,200m
6.35pm Graduate Stakes – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.10pm Al Khail Trophy – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,810m
7.45pm UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
8.20pm Zabeel Turf – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,000m
8.55pm Downtown Dubai Cup – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 1,400m
9.30pm Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m
10.05pm Dubai Sprint – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 1,200m
FINAL RESULT
Sharjah Wanderers 20 Dubai Tigers 25 (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries: Gormley, Penalty
cons: Flaherty
Pens: Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries: O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons: Caldwell 2
Pens: Caldwell, Cross
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
CHELSEA'S NEXT FIVE GAMES
Mar 10: Norwich(A)
Mar 13: Newcastle(H)
Mar 16: Lille(A)
Mar 19: Middlesbrough(A)
Apr 2: Brentford(H)
Results
Women finals: 48kg - Urantsetseg Munkhbat (MGL) bt Distria Krasniqi (KOS); 52kg - Odette Guiffrida (ITA) bt Majlinda Kelmendi (KOS); 57kg - Nora Gjakova (KOS) bt Anastasiia Konkina (Rus)
Men’s finals: 60kg - Amiran Papinashvili (GEO) bt Francisco Garrigos (ESP); 66kg - Vazha Margvelashvili (Geo) bt Yerlan Serikzhanov (KAZ)
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
PROFILE OF INVYGO
Started: 2018
Founders: Eslam Hussein and Pulkit Ganjoo
Based: Dubai
Sector: Transport
Size: 9 employees
Investment: $1,275,000
Investors: Class 5 Global, Equitrust, Gulf Islamic Investments, Kairos K50 and William Zeqiri
Racecard
6pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 Group 1 (PA) $55,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
6.35pm: Oud Metha Stakes Rated Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,200m
7.10pm: Jumeirah Classic Listed (TB) $150,000 (Turf) 1,600m
7.45pm: Firebreak Stakes Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m
8.20pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 Group 2 (TB) $350,000 (D) 1,900m
8.55pm: Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions (TB) $60,000 (D) 1,900m
9.30pm: Balanchine Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
Prop idols
Girls full-contact rugby may be in its infancy in the Middle East, but there are already a number of role models for players to look up to.
Sophie Shams (Dubai Exiles mini, England sevens international)
An Emirati student who is blazing a trail in rugby. She first learnt the game at Dubai Exiles and captained her JESS Primary school team. After going to study geophysics at university in the UK, she scored a sensational try in a cup final at Twickenham. She has played for England sevens, and is now contracted to top Premiership club Saracens.
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Seren Gough-Walters (Sharjah Wanderers mini, Wales rugby league international)
Few players anywhere will have taken a more circuitous route to playing rugby on Sky Sports. Gough-Walters was born in Al Wasl Hospital in Dubai, raised in Sharjah, did not take up rugby seriously till she was 15, has a master’s in global governance and ethics, and once worked as an immigration officer at the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi. In the summer of 2021 she played for Wales against England in rugby league, in a match that was broadcast live on TV.
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Erin King (Dubai Hurricanes mini, Ireland sevens international)
Aged five, Australia-born King went to Dubai Hurricanes training at The Sevens with her brothers. She immediately struck up a deep affection for rugby. She returned to the city at the end of last year to play at the Dubai Rugby Sevens in the colours of Ireland in the Women’s World Series tournament on Pitch 1.
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
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