With parliamentary elections over, Lebanon must designate a prime minister to form a new government, but analysts say political divisions could get in the way.
President Michel Aoun is expected to call for consultations in the coming days, when representatives from the blocs in Parliament will put forward their candidates.
Choosing the right prime minister could be vital to reforms designed to pull Lebanon out of one of the worst economic crises in its history.
Under the state's confessional political convention, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the speaker a Shiite and the prime minister a Sunni.
Analysts said political divisions across a polarised new Parliament and a void in Sunni leadership could threaten the process.
Saad Hariri, leader of the Future Movemen, the biggest Sunni party in Lebanon, announced his withdrawal from political life on January 22 and declined to run in May’s parliamentary elections, instructing his party to boycott them.
Hariri's departure created a vacuum in the Sunni political sphere, analysts said, leaving opportunity for new leadership.
Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, has observed that no one leader represents Sunnis, while voices in the community have become more diverse.
“The new Sunni leadership, those who won the election, have one thread in common, which is that they are refusing the domination of Hezbollah and the influence of Iran,” Mr Nader said.
Lebanon’s Parliament is split. Unlike the previous assembly, in which the pro-Hezbollah bloc had an absolute majority, no bloc has a clear majority this time.
The hung parliament has led analysts to predict a prolonged deadlock in the upcoming government formation process.
Joseph Bahout, the director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs in Beirut, said that one of the major considerations in designating a prime minister would be whether they would be able to balance regional interests.
It is not yet clear what the regional backers of the Sunni community will do, he said.
While the influence of Iran-backed Hezbollah has grown in Lebanon, including in formal government institutions, the country’s relations with Gulf states have deteriorated.
A diplomatic row with the Gulf began in October 2021 when a Lebanese minister made comments about the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention in Yemen.
The incident led Saudi Arabia to expel the Lebanese ambassador and recall its envoy from Beirut. The UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait followed suit.
Riyadh also ordered an immediate ban of all Lebanese imports and barred its citizens from travelling to the country.
Although Saudi Arabia reinstated its ambassador in Lebanon in April, Mr Bahout said it was unclear the extent of the influence the kingdom would have in the country at this stage.
Any contender for prime minister, Mr Bahout said, would need be accepted by the pro-Hezbollah bloc and the Sunni bloc.
Why is Lebanon experiencing a vacuum in Sunni leadership?
Lebanon’s Sunni power vacuum has its origins in October 2019, when the first signs of the country’s financial trouble began to show.
It led to a mass uprising that forced prime minister Mr Hariri’s government to resign.
Since then, Lebanon has slid deeper into instability. An economic collapse marked by shortages of fuel, electricity and medicine took hold as the value of the Lebanese pound plummeted and about 80 per cent of the population was driven into poverty.
In August 2020, an explosion of thousands of tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored for years at Beirut Port destroyed large parts of the capital and killed more than 215 people.
Prime minister Hassan Diab resigned, and although there were attempts to form successive governments by Mr Hariri and relative newcomer Mustapha Adib, Mr Diab’s government remained in a caretaker capacity for 13 months owing to prolonged deadlocks.
In July 2021, Najib Mikati was appointed prime minister. His government has remained in a caretaker role since last month's parliamentary elections.
Given the void in Sunni leadership in Lebanon and the difficulties involved in designating a prime minister who is acceptable to a majority, Mr Bahout predicts Mr Mikati will be chosen to lead the government once again.
Mr Mikati last month said he was reluctant to take on the job, telling media in Lebanon that the task would be “difficult … because most of the political discourse revolves around who has a stronger backing than who”.
He said he would support any candidate designated for the job and suggested MPs Ashraf Rifi and Abdul Rahman Bizri could take the post, as well as the former IMF economist Amer Bisat.
'Hard time' finding global acceptance
Mr Bahout said anyone chosen as prime minister needed popular legitimacy and a diplomatic finesse to rally parliamentary blocs and regional powers.
But although figures such as Mr Rifi will try to “maximise their space in the Sunni arena” now that Mr Hariri is out of it, Mr Bahout said, his designation for the post is unlikely given his outspoken opposition to Hezbollah.
Despite this, Mr Bahout said, former members of Mr Hariri's Future Movement such as Mr Rifi will be worth watching because they are well-suited to seeking support from Saudi Arabia.
But Mr Nader said the formation of a government by any figure close to Hezbollah and its allies would have a hard time with the reforms necessary to take Lebanon towards an economy revival or strike a deal for an IMF bailout.
“They would have a hard time finding acceptance in the international community,” he said.
Whomever Mr Aoun chooses, analysts are not upbeat about the political future.
Mr Nader said that “this does not bode well for the comeback of proper functioning of institutions”.
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
Company profile
Name: One Good Thing
Founders: Bridgett Lau and Micheal Cooke
Based in: Dubai
Sector: e-commerce
Size: 5 employees
Stage: Looking for seed funding
Investors: Self-funded and seeking external investors
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
THE%20HOLDOVERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlexander%20Payne%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Paul%20Giamatti%2C%20Da'Vine%20Joy%20Randolph%2C%20Dominic%20Sessa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Jaguar F-Type Convertible
Price, base / as tested: Dh283,080 / Dh318,465
Engine: 2.0-litre inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 295hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 1,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.2L / 100km
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
BRIEF SCORES:
Toss: Nepal, chose to field
UAE 153-6: Shaiman (59), Usman (30); Regmi 2-23
Nepal 132-7: Jora 53 not out; Zahoor 2-17
Result: UAE won by 21 runs
Series: UAE lead 1-0
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Apple%20Mac%20through%20the%20years
%3Cp%3E1984%20-%20Apple%20unveiled%20the%20Macintosh%20on%20January%2024%3Cbr%3E1985%20-%20Steve%20Jobs%20departed%20from%20Apple%20and%20established%20NeXT%3Cbr%3E1986%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20the%20Macintosh%20Plus%2C%20featuring%20enhanced%20memory%3Cbr%3E1987%20-%20Apple%20launched%20the%20Macintosh%20II%2C%20equipped%20with%20colour%20capabilities%3Cbr%3E1989%20-%20The%20widely%20acclaimed%20Macintosh%20SE%2F30%20made%20its%20debut%3Cbr%3E1994%20-%20Apple%20presented%20the%20Power%20Macintosh%3Cbr%3E1996%20-%20The%20Macintosh%20System%20Software%20OS%20underwent%20a%20rebranding%20as%20Mac%20OS%3Cbr%3E2001%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20Mac%20OS%20X%2C%20marrying%20Unix%20stability%20with%20a%20user-friendly%20interface%3Cbr%3E2006%20-%20Apple%20adopted%20Intel%20processors%20in%20MacBook%20Pro%20laptops%3Cbr%3E2008%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20the%20MacBook%20Air%2C%20a%20lightweight%20laptop%3Cbr%3E2012%20-%20Apple%20launched%20the%20MacBook%20Pro%20with%20a%20retina%20display%3Cbr%3E2016%20-%20The%20Mac%20operating%20system%20underwent%20rebranding%20as%20macOS%3Cbr%3E2020%20-%20Apple%20introduced%20the%20M1%20chip%20for%20Macs%2C%20combining%20high%20performance%20and%20energy%20efficiency%3Cbr%3E2022%20-%20The%20M2%20chip%20was%20announced%3Cbr%3E2023%20-The%20M3%20line-up%20of%20chip%20was%20announced%20to%20improve%20performance%20and%20add%20new%20capabilities%20for%20Mac.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The five pillars of Islam
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
More from Aya Iskandarani
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Belong%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Askew%20and%20Matthew%20Gaziano%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%243.5%20million%20from%20crowd%20funding%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BRIEF SCORES
England 353 and 313-8 dec
(B Stokes 112, A Cook 88; M Morkel 3-70, K Rabada 3-85)
(J Bairstow 63, T Westley 59, J Root 50; K Maharaj 3-50)
South Africa 175 and 252
(T Bavuma 52; T Roland-Jones 5-57, J Anderson 3-25)
(D Elgar 136; M Ali 4-45, T Roland-Jones 3-72)
Result: England won by 239 runs
England lead four-match series 2-1
How it works
Booklava works on a subscription model. On signing up you receive a free book as part of a 30-day-trial period, after which you pay US$9.99 (Dh36.70) per month to gain access to a library of books and discounts of up to 30 per cent on selected titles. You can cancel your subscription at any time. For more details go to www.booklava.com
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Floward%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERiyadh%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdulaziz%20Al%20Loughani%20and%20Mohamed%20Al%20Arifi%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EE-commerce%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbout%20%24200%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAljazira%20Capital%2C%20Rainwater%20Partners%2C%20STV%20and%20Impact46%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C200%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
ZAYED SUSTAINABILITY PRIZE
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UAE Falcons
Carly Lewis (captain), Emily Fensome, Kelly Loy, Isabel Affley, Jessica Cronin, Jemma Eley, Jenna Guy, Kate Lewis, Megan Polley, Charlie Preston, Becki Quigley and Sophie Siffre. Deb Jones and Lucia Sdao – coach and assistant coach.
more from Janine di Giovanni
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How to keep control of your emotions
If your investment decisions are being dictated by emotions such as fear, greed, hope, frustration and boredom, it is time for a rethink, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at online trading platform IG, says.
Greed
Greedy investors trade beyond their means, open more positions than usual or hold on to positions too long to chase an even greater gain. “All too often, they incur a heavy loss and may even wipe out the profit already made.
Tip: Ignore the short-term hype, noise and froth and invest for the long-term plan, based on sound fundamentals.
Fear
The risk of making a loss can cloud decision-making. “This can cause you to close out a position too early, or miss out on a profit by being too afraid to open a trade,” he says.
Tip: Start with a plan, and stick to it. For added security, consider placing stops to reduce any losses and limits to lock in profits.
Hope
While all traders need hope to start trading, excessive optimism can backfire. Too many traders hold on to a losing trade because they believe that it will reverse its trend and become profitable.
Tip: Set realistic goals. Be happy with what you have earned, rather than frustrated by what you could have earned.
Frustration
Traders can get annoyed when the markets have behaved in unexpected ways and generates losses or fails to deliver anticipated gains.
Tip: Accept in advance that asset price movements are completely unpredictable and you will suffer losses at some point. These can be managed, say, by attaching stops and limits to your trades.
Boredom
Too many investors buy and sell because they want something to do. They are trading as entertainment, rather than in the hope of making money. As well as making bad decisions, the extra dealing charges eat into returns.
Tip: Open an online demo account and get your thrills without risking real money.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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The biog
Name: Samar Frost
Born: Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: Singing, music and socialising with friends
Favourite singer: Adele
