Early elections will not solve Iraq's political deadlock and may drag the country further into crisis, experts told The National on Wednesday.
For months, powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr has been calling for re-elections and the dissolution of Parliament. This comes after his political party won last October's polls but fell short of a majority.
The country has been without a newly elected government for 11 months.
“Holding new elections may be a way to reset the deadlock but we may end up in another deadlock,” Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst based in Baghdad and a fellow at Century International, said.
Calls are being made for re-elections as deals are not being struck between political parties and there is not an alternative for a way out of the impasse, he added.
Mr Al Sadr and his followers, who call themselves the Sadrists, have staged protests across the country against their rival group the Shiite Co-ordination Framework.
Tensions heightened drastically last week after the cleric's followers stormed Baghdad's Fortified Green Zone. The move killed at least 30 people, mostly Mr Al Sader's supporters, following clashes with armed groups after he announced he was quitting politics.
At least 400 people were wounded in the violence.
Normal life has returned to Baghdad after a bloody week, but the political stand-off remains.
Mr Al Sadr was frustrated in his attempts to form a government after the general election, despite his bloc winning the largest number of seats.
His rivals in the Iran-aligned Co-ordination Framework alliance have insisted a government should be formed and there is no need for another vote.
“Elections are not the solution and they may lead to the situation becoming even more serious and people losing all trust in democracy and the election process,” Mr Jiyad told The National.
Mr Al Sadr has been calling for early elections, which is a critical demand for him and his supporters who have called for the dissolution of Parliament.
Meanwhile, the Co-ordination Framework want a new head of government appointed before new polls are held.
Results might “be more of the same because of turnouts, we expect turnout to be low again, maybe the Sadrists will come out on top and the framework will do a bit better, but we expect the results to be the same,” Mr Jiyad said.
Low voter turnout
The turnout was 43 per cent in last October's election, but the results were lower than the last election in 2018.
The country's electoral commission said more than 9.6 million people voted in the October 10 vote.
"It is difficult to see whether we can expect different results because what we know is that most Iraqis are not voting and in every election the voter turnout has been lower and lower," Renad Mansour, an Iraq scholar at the Chatham House think tank in London, told The National.
"What that means is those coming to voting age are less likely to vote so the only people who are voting are those linked to the social base of political parties."
October's vote involved at least 167 parties and more than 3,200 candidates competing for 329 seats in Parliament.
It is only the Sadrists that are calling for fresh elections and, based on Chatham House's research, Mr Al Sadr has a strong base that is willing to go out and vote.
"The question is have they [Sadrists] learnt that if they can get more votes, that they can actually pursue a majority government in a way that they couldn’t compared to last year’s elections?" Mr Mansour said.
"This is what they are planning for, to have another early election and they will be in a better position, their people have learnt that voting does matter," he said.
Mr Mansour said that it was hard to "see a very big difference" if Iraq was to hold another election.
"The Sadrists are hoping they can re-emerge with stronger political capital," he said.
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TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENCE (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US's most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out ballistic missiles as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles inside and outside the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 150 kilometres above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then stationed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The years Ramadan fell in May
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Race card
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m.
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,200m.
2.45pm: Handicap Dh95,000 1,200m.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh120,000 1,400m.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,400m.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,800m.
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,950m.
The National selections:
1.45pm: Galaxy Road – So Hi Speed
2.15pm: Majestic Thunder – Daltrey
2.45pm: Call To War – Taamol
3.15pm: Eqtiraan - Bochart
3.45pm: Kidd Malibu – Initial
4.15pm: Arroway – Arch Gold
4.35pm: Compliance - Muqaatil
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
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The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
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Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
The bio
Favourite book: Kane and Abel by Jeffrey Archer
Favourite quote: “The world makes way for the man who knows where he is going.” - Ralph Waldo Emerson, American essayist
Favourite Authors: Arab poet Abu At-Tayyib Al-Mutanabbi
Favourite Emirati food: Luqaimat, a deep-fried dough soaked in date syrup
Hobbies: Reading and drawing
Ticket prices
General admission Dh295 (under-three free)
Buy a four-person Family & Friends ticket and pay for only three tickets, so the fourth family member is free
Buy tickets at: wbworldabudhabi.com/en/tickets
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Innotech Profile
Date started: 2013
Founder/CEO: Othman Al Mandhari
Based: Muscat, Oman
Sector: Additive manufacturing, 3D printing technologies
Size: 15 full-time employees
Stage: Seed stage and seeking Series A round of financing
Investors: Oman Technology Fund from 2017 to 2019, exited through an agreement with a new investor to secure new funding that it under negotiation right now.
EXPATS
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The Outsider
Stephen King, Penguin
