Iraq was grappling with the prospect of all-out intra-Shiite civil strife after a day of clashes in central Baghdad and the south that analysts said could push the country into a protracted conflict resembling Yemen and Libya, where dozens of armed groups are fighting out competing agendas.
On Monday night, heavily armed rival militias battled in the streets around the seat of government in Baghdad's Green Zone. In the south, protesters set political party offices on fire and more clashes took place.
By Tuesday afternoon, there was a lull after nationalist cleric Moqtada Al Sadr, who has authority over one of the militias, ordered an immediate ceasefire. But analysts said any peace could be tenuous.
At least 30 people were killed in the worst violence in Iraq since militias crushed a national anti-government protest movement in 2019, killing hundreds then.
That followed a period of relative calm after the struggle to defeat ISIS between 2014 and 2018.
“It could be very much like a Yemen or Libya-style situation,” said Alex Almeida, a regional security consultant with the company Horizon Client Access, pointing to a situation where fighting between non-state groups has destroyed infrastructure, caused humanitarian disasters and embroiled the countries in protracted and complicated conflicts.
“It's very fluid, with groups rapidly coalescing and dispersing,” Mr Almeida said, warning that no side has the resources to gain the upper hand if fighting flares up again.
Rival militias in the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a collection of paramilitary groups ostensibly linked to the government, were once loosely held together by a common enemy — ISIS.
With that threat minimised there are growing divisions within the PMF about Iraq’s future — as well as mafia-style turf wars between factions that have involvement in continuing low-level violence, including assassinations.
But the rivalry has been supercharged after October 2021's disputed elections that have yet to produce a government.
Who are Iraq's rival militias?
On one side is Saraya Al Salam, loyal to nationalist cleric Moqtada Al Sadr. Mr Al Sadr has long rejected Iranian and US influence in Iraq, unlike his rivals in the Co-ordination Framework, who are largely linked to Iran.
Mr Al Sadr's party took the most seats in the 2021 election while the Iran-backed coalition suffered humiliating losses in the national vote.
But the cleric angrily withdrew from politics after 10 months of stalled government formation on Monday, condemning what he called corrupt and unconstitutional challenges to his right to form the next administration as the winner of the largest number of seats in October’s elections.
Facing him are a number of US and EU terrorist groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl Al Haq and Saraya Khorasani. They are associated with the Co-ordination Framework, which includes Mr Al Sadr’s rival and former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki.
Once anti-US insurgents, both groups are now heavily armed, having benefited from connections in government — including an annual budget of more than $2 billion to field tanks, drones and heavy artillery. The opposing sides have a long history of severe human rights abuses.
The bitter rivalry between these parties and their militias goes back to the period following the US invasion, long before they were merged into the fragmented PMF during the war against ISIS.
But, unlike previous intra-Shiite conflicts — which mainly focused on control of oil in cities such as Basra, holy sites in cities such as Karbala and illegal checkpoints that levied taxes, today’s friction points are across much of the country’s Shiite south, towns where many of the militiamen hail from.
These points of competition cross over tribal lines in a country that is one of the most heavily armed in the world, which worries analysts who say hopes for peace are slipping away.
Iraq can ill afford another conflict, still trying to rebuild after decades of turmoil since the Iran-Iraq war, Gulf Wars, international sanctions, the US invasion, civil strife and the fight against ISIS.
Why are the Shiites fighting?
At the heart of the latest dispute is an intra-Shiite battle for the regional alignment of Iraq, whether it will be closely aligned to Iran — including strict clerical rule along the lines of Iran’s Wilayat Al Faqih system, or whether religious Iraqi leaders in Najaf will hold sway, so-called quietists known for refraining from politics.
For Iran and Mr Al Sadr, it is a zero-sum game to dominate state institutions, their revenue and government funding, but also claims of religious authority.
“Here the state is besieged by multiple groups. It's on collision course ― and it’s interesting to see a fight in which neither side can afford to throw the first punch,” says Michael Knights, an Iraq analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
An analysis by Mr Knights of Kataib Hezbollah, whose forces have entered the Green Zone in the past, estimates they could field a force of up to 10,000 fighters.
And he said that Iraq faces a protracted and bloody stalemate if this happens as Mr Al Sadr commands vastly more supporters but has fewer weapons than his Iran-backed rivals.
Mediation?
But Shiite political leaders have a long history of clashing, often violently, only to have last-minute meetings to defuse intra-Shiite violence and end deadlock. This happened in 2008 in Basra and in 2014 when former prime minister Mr Al Maliki was ousted.
“Chances are they will try to mediate again,” said Ruba Ali Al Hassani, postdoctoral research associate at Lancaster University.
“Prime Minister Kadhimi held talks a few weeks ago and Al Sadr refused to take part. But Al Sadr didn’t mention his Saraya Al Salam when he resigned from politics, so it raises a question, will Kadhimi and other politicians allow for violence to continue between the two coalitions,” she asked.
“I don’t like to predicate the future, but chances are that politicians will try to jump in and engage in some kind of dialogue to avoid violence.”
Sajad Jiyad, an analyst with The Century Foundation think tank, is warier that peace can be achieved.
“There is no serious mediator who will strike an agreement at this time. Nor do foreign powers know how to respond so it’s most likely that the escalation will continue. It is a serious moment but I think we still have room for more, things might get more serious,” he told The National on Monday, just before major fighting erupted.
What about the Iraqi Army?
Iraq has a regular army of more than 300,000 soldiers and — with the exception of some units, has relative political neutrality.
Iraq also has a renowned Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) trained by the US and credited with winning many battles against ISIS, as well as fighting Shiite militias during the US occupation.
Both the army and CTS were seen trying to hold the rival militias apart on Monday, but at one point appeared to have been caught up in fighting in Baghdad.
There are also other armed groups who could yet stay on the sidelines.
Firstly, there are around 10,000 militiamen in the PMF linked to Iraq’s Shiite religious leadership in Najaf and Karbala. Since Iraq’s holiest clerics, including Grand Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, refrain from political statements and often call for peace, it’s unlikely they will mobilise for war.
Secondly, there are tens of thousands of Sunni fighters aligned with the PMF, who fought in the war against ISIS. It’s unclear whether they would wish to partake in what is, for now, a Shiite dispute.
Al Sadr’s religious challenge
On the religious front, analysts say a key development for Mr Al Sadr — who sent his fighters to defend his followers around the Green Zone in the past week ― is the retirement of Ayatollah Al Haeri, once an influential figure in the Sadrist movement.
Mr Al Haeri pledged allegiance to Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei upon resigning, a humiliating snub for Mr Al Sadr.
"Ayatollah Al Haeri's resignation is very curious because Marjas don't really get to resign, it's a lifetime commitment. In his statement Al Haeri presses a number of political issues, talking about the Hashed (PMF) who must continue to operate outside the state's reach, calling for their endorsement and mobilisation so that the Baathists don't come back into power," Ms Al Hassani says.
"He called on all of those who emulate him to switch and emulate Khamenei and the timing is of the essence because as much as he follows Wilayat Al Faqih, why now?" she adds.
“It looks like Moqtada was really upset by Haeri's ‘retirement’ which, it seems, he's interpreting as Tehran turning the tables on him,’ said Omar Al Nidawi, an analyst with the NGO Enabling Peace in Iraq Centre.
Mr Nidawi’s outlook for Iraq’s near future is bleak, in part because Mr Al Sadr and his rivals have such a long history of using violent militias against each other.
“If Sadr feels cornered and facing an existential threat, he could lash out militarily to regain deterrence. But he also has an issue with discipline within his movement. If he loses control, things could spiral from there.
“When people don't know what to do, things can easily go wrong,” he says, pointing to the volatile character of leaders like Mr Al Maliki and Mr Al Sadr.
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (UAE kick-off times)
Borussia Dortmund v Paderborn (11.30pm)
Saturday
Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg (6.30pm)
Werder Bremen v Schalke (6.30pm)
Union Berlin v Borussia Monchengladbach (6.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg (6.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldof v Bayern Munich (6.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Cologne (9.30pm)
Sunday
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin (6.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Mainz (9pm)
MATCH INFO
Day 1 at Mount Maunganui
England 241-4
Denly 74, Stokes 67 not out, De Grandhomme 2-28
New Zealand
Yet to bat
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
Marathon results
Men:
1. Titus Ekiru(KEN) 2:06:13
2. Alphonce Simbu(TAN) 2:07:50
3. Reuben Kipyego(KEN) 2:08:25
4. Abel Kirui(KEN) 2:08:46
5. Felix Kemutai(KEN) 2:10:48
Women:
1. Judith Korir(KEN) 2:22:30
2. Eunice Chumba(BHR) 2:26:01
3. Immaculate Chemutai(UGA) 2:28:30
4. Abebech Bekele(ETH) 2:29:43
5. Aleksandra Morozova(RUS) 2:33:01
Temple numbers
Expected completion: 2022
Height: 24 meters
Ground floor banquet hall: 370 square metres to accommodate about 750 people
Ground floor multipurpose hall: 92 square metres for up to 200 people
First floor main Prayer Hall: 465 square metres to hold 1,500 people at a time
First floor terrace areas: 2,30 square metres
Temple will be spread over 6,900 square metres
Structure includes two basements, ground and first floor
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
ATP RANKINGS (NOVEMBER 4)
1. Rafael Nadal (ESP) 9,585 pts ( 1)
2. Novak Djokovic (SRB) 8,945 (-1)
3. Roger Federer (SUI) 6,190
4. Daniil Medvedev (RUS) 5,705
5. Dominic Thiem (AUT) 5,025
6. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 4,000 ( 1)
7. Alexander Zverev (GER) 2,945 (-1)
8. Matteo Berrettini (ITA) 2,670 ( 1)
9. Roberto Bautista (ESP) 2,540 ( 1)
10. Gaël Monfils (FRA) 2,530 ( 3)
11. David Goffin (BEL) 2,335 ( 3)
12. Fabio Fognini (ITA) 2,290
13. Kei Nishikori (JPN) 2,180 (-2)
14. Diego Schwartzman (ARG) 2,125 ( 1)
15. Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 2,050 ( 13)
16. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) 2,000
17. Karen Khachanov (RUS) 1,840 (-9)
18. Alex De Minaur (AUS) 1,775
19. John Isner (USA) 1,770 (-2)
20. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 1,747 ( 7)
Scoreline
Bournemouth 2
Wilson 70', Ibe 74'
Arsenal 1
Bellerin 52'
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Indian origin executives leading top technology firms
Sundar Pichai
Chief executive, Google and Alphabet
Satya Nadella
Chief executive, Microsoft
Ajaypal Singh Banga
President and chief executive, Mastercard
Shantanu Narayen
Chief executive, chairman, and president, Adobe
Indra Nooyi
Board of directors, Amazon and former chief executive, PepsiCo
WIDE%20VIEW
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Rock in a Hard Place: Music and Mayhem in the Middle East
Orlando Crowcroft
Zed Books
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ovasave%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20November%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Majd%20Abu%20Zant%20and%20Torkia%20Mahloul%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Healthtech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Three%20employees%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24400%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
Gulf Under 19s final
Dubai College A 50-12 Dubai College B
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The stats
Ship name: MSC Bellissima
Ship class: Meraviglia Class
Delivery date: February 27, 2019
Gross tonnage: 171,598 GT
Passenger capacity: 5,686
Crew members: 1,536
Number of cabins: 2,217
Length: 315.3 metres
Maximum speed: 22.7 knots (42kph)
Simran
Director Hansal Mehta
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey
Three stars
Opening Premier League fixtures, August 14
- Brentford v Arsenal
- Burnley v Brighton
- Chelsea v Crystal Palace
- Everton v Southampton
- Leicester City v Wolves
- Manchester United v Leeds United
- Newcastle United v West Ham United
- Norwich City v Liverpool
- Tottenham v Manchester City
- Watford v Aston Villa
Profile of RentSher
Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi
Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE
Sector: Online rental marketplace
Size: 40 employees
Investment: $2 million
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: BorrowMe (BorrowMe.com)
Date started: August 2021
Founder: Nour Sabri
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce / Marketplace
Size: Two employees
Funding stage: Seed investment
Initial investment: $200,000
Investors: Amr Manaa (director, PwC Middle East)
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
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Stamp%20duty%20timeline
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Results:
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah (PA) | Group 2 | US$55,000 (Dirt) | 1,600 metres
Winner: AF Al Sajanjle, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint (TB) | Group 2 | $250,000 (Turf) | 1,000m
Winner: Blue Point, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.40pm: Firebreak Stakes | Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Muntazah, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson
8.15pm: Meydan Trophy Conditions (TB) | $100,000 (T) | 1,900m
Winner: Art Du Val, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.50pm: Balanchine Group 2 (TB) | $250,000 (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Poetic Charm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (D) | 1,200m
Winner: Lava Spin, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,410m
Winner: Mountain Hunter, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
if you go
The flights
Emirates offer flights to Buenos Aires from Dubai, via Rio De Janeiro from around Dh6,300. emirates.com
Seeing the games
Tangol sell experiences across South America and generally have good access to tickets for most of the big teams in Buenos Aires: Boca Juniors, River Plate, and Independiente. Prices from Dh550 and include pick up and drop off from your hotel in the city. tangol.com
Staying there
Tangol will pick up tourists from any hotel in Buenos Aires, but after the intensity of the game, the Faena makes for tranquil, upmarket accommodation. Doubles from Dh1,110. faena.com
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
The specs
Engine: four-litre V6 and 3.5-litre V6 twin-turbo
Transmission: six-speed and 10-speed
Power: 271 and 409 horsepower
Torque: 385 and 650Nm
Price: from Dh229,900 to Dh355,000
What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.
Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.
