Iraq’s stumbling government formation process has taken a dangerous turn after an allegedly leaked recording of former prime minister Nouri Al Maliki was made public last week.
Influential nationalist cleric Moqtada Al Sadr responded angrily to the recording, which contains personal attacks on him, sparking protests by his supporters in Baghdad and several southern Iraqi towns.
Both Mr Al Sadr and his rivals in the Shiite Co-ordination Framework (SCF) command heavily armed followers and have clashed in the past.
In the recording — the authenticity of which is contested — the former prime minister claims Mr Al Sadr is backed by foreign powers, whom he accuses of a kidnapping and murder campaign across Iraq during years of sectarian violence after the 2003 US-led invasion.
Mr Al Maliki, who led Iraq between 2006 and 2014 before being removed from office as ISIS took over one third of Iraq, has been nominated by his State of Law Coalition for the role of prime minister, amid a government formation process that has stumbled for nearly 10 months.
Mr Al Sadr once commanded a notorious militia, the Jaish Al Mahdi, which is accused of human rights violations.
In perhaps the most politically damaging part of the recording, Mr Al Maliki calls the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a largely Iran-backed militia force accused of war crimes and violent crackdowns on protesters, “cowards”.
Mr Al Maliki is allied to parties linked to the PMF and passed legislation in June 2014 to legalise the militias as a state-backed force.
The two men are bitter rivals. In 2008, Mr Al Maliki sent the Iraqi army to the southern port city of Basra to drive out a militia force loyal to Mr Al Sadr, which had taken control of the city.
Yesar Al Maleki, a Gulf analyst at the Middle East Economic Survey, said the recordings “fit the narrative of the Maliki versus Sadr saga, which is that this old rivalry that is not going to die".
"So has Maliki been ambushed?" he said. "Yes.
“The timing is very important. This is where Sadr is still a major player. He put out all these statements and we saw how many people went out to support him afterwards. The Sadrists were having gatherings and just last Friday they had perhaps one of the biggest Friday rallies in post-2003 Iraq.”
Mr Al Sadr says Mr Al Maliki should apologise to him and leave politics.
Government formation stumbles
The backlash against Mr Al Maliki could complicate efforts by the SCF to form the next government.
In a surprise move, Mr Al Sadr last month passed the responsibility of government formation to his rival parliamentary bloc when he asked his MPs to withdraw from government, instantly removing the Sadrists from Parliament.
Sixty-four out of 73 MPs loyal to the cleric — the largest bloc in Parliament — have since been replaced, mainly by members of the Co-ordination Framework.
At the head of that grouping is Mr Al Maliki and Fatah Alliance head, former militiaman and Iran-loyalist Hadi Al Amiri.
On paper, they are now in pole position to form the next government, with the largest bloc, but will still need the support of Sunni and Kurdish parties, some of whom were allied to Mr Al Sadr.
But Mr Al Sadr’s move, while self-destructive in appearance, has revealed splits within the SCF that have now been exacerbated by the leaked recording.
Mr Al Maliki was an uncertain choice for some in the SCF who felt he could be too divisive and provoke mass protests from the Sadrists.
“That recording has clearly hit a nerve," said Kirk Sowell, who runs Iraq-focused consultancy Utica Risk.
"My view is that Maliki's unofficial candidacy to have a third term never had a chance, and it was just a question of how long and what they'd have to give him to save face and back down. If this weakens Maliki, maybe it speeds up government formation by weakening Maliki's hand."
A new civil war?
While the Sadrists and some militias linked to the SCF have clashed in the past, and recent months have seen a sharp rise in assassinations of figures linked to the PMF, some believe a new Shiite-Shiite conflict can be avoided.
Norman Ricklefs, who advised Iraqi security forces during Mr Al Maliki’s last major clash with Sadrists in 2008, predicts political chaos could drag on into next year, but is uncertain about armed conflict.
“The most important outcome of the press release by Sadr’s office is that it makes the formation of a new government from this Parliament more difficult, making fresh elections in 2023 more likely," he said.
"It also affirms to the Sadrist movement that it can continue to play a powerful political role from outside the Parliament, which has the unfortunate effect of undermining Parliament’s authority.”
Mr Al Maleki agrees that Mr Al Sadr likes to maintain the image of being separate from the political process, despite retaining strong influence in ministries.
Mr Al Sadr is "back to where he is most comfortable, which is influencing government policy, influencing politics while not getting his hands dirty in the process", he said.
Mr Sowell said despite the seemingly endless deadlock between parties with armed groups, conflict is not preordained.
He said there appeared to be considerable efforts to avoid any Shiite-Shiite conflict and predicted “that we are headed for a 2018 scenario”.
Under such a scenario, Shiite leaders would select someone “with no electoral mandate or political base, someone not controversial for Sadr, and Iraq gets another weak government”.
Mr Sowell said: "In my mind, the main uncertainty is how many weeks or months it takes to get Maliki to climb down."
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, second leg:
Liverpool (0) v Barcelona (3), Tuesday, 11pm UAE
Game is on BeIN Sports
Champions parade (UAE timings)
7pm Gates open
8pm Deansgate stage showing starts
9pm Parade starts at Manchester Cathedral
9.45pm Parade ends at Peter Street
10pm City players on stage
11pm event ends
Sleep Well Beast
The National
4AD
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
WRESTLING HIGHLIGHTS
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
AUSTRALIA%20SQUAD
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Company%20profile
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UAE%20v%20West%20Indies
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The Gandhi Murder
- 71 - Years since the death of MK Gandhi, also christened India's Father of the Nation
- 34 - Nationalities featured in the film The Gandhi Murder
- 7 - million dollars, the film's budget
Revival
Eminem
Interscope
Results:
6.30pm: Maiden | US$45,000 (Dirt) | 1,400 metres
Winner: Tabarak, Royston Ffrench (jockey), Rashed Bouresly (trainer)
7.05pm: Handicap | $175,000 (Turf) | 3,200m
Winner: Dubhe, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Group 3 | $250,000 (D) | 1,600m
Winner: Estihdaaf, Christophe Soumillon, Saeed bin Suroor
8.15pm: Handicap | $135,000 (T) | 1,800m
Winner: Nordic Lights, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
8.50pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 Group 2 | $450,000 (D) | 1,900m
Winner: North America, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
9.25pm: Handicap | $175,000 (T) | 1,200m
Winner: Mazzini, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass
10pm: Handicap | $135,000 (T) | 1,400m.
Winner: Mubtasim, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh289,000
Roll of honour 2019-2020
Dubai Rugby Sevens
Winners: Dubai Hurricanes
Runners up: Bahrain
West Asia Premiership
Winners: Bahrain
Runners up: UAE Premiership
UAE Premiership
}Winners: Dubai Exiles
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes
UAE Division One
Winners: Abu Dhabi Saracens
Runners up: Dubai Hurricanes II
UAE Division Two
Winners: Barrelhouse
Runners up: RAK Rugby
Itcan profile
Founders: Mansour Althani and Abdullah Althani
Based: Business Bay, with offices in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and India
Sector: Technology, digital marketing and e-commerce
Size: 70 employees
Revenue: On track to make Dh100 million in revenue this year since its 2015 launch
Funding: Self-funded to date
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
New schools in Dubai
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Who has lived at The Bishops Avenue?
- George Sainsbury of the supermarket dynasty, sugar magnate William Park Lyle and actress Dame Gracie Fields were residents in the 1930s when the street was only known as ‘Millionaires’ Row’.
- Then came the international super rich, including the last king of Greece, Constantine II, the Sultan of Brunei and Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal who was at one point ranked the third richest person in the world.
- Turkish tycoon Halis Torprak sold his mansion for £50m in 2008 after spending just two days there. The House of Saud sold 10 properties on the road in 2013 for almost £80m.
- Other residents have included Iraqi businessman Nemir Kirdar, singer Ariana Grande, holiday camp impresario Sir Billy Butlin, businessman Asil Nadir, Paul McCartney’s former wife Heather Mills.
Hunting park to luxury living
- Land was originally the Bishop of London's hunting park, hence the name
- The road was laid out in the mid 19th Century, meandering through woodland and farmland
- Its earliest houses at the turn of the 20th Century were substantial detached properties with extensive grounds
Brahmastra%3A%20Part%20One%20-%20Shiva
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Getting there
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly to Johannesburg or Cape Town daily. Flights cost from about Dh3,325, with a flying time of 8hours and 15 minutes. From there, fly South African Airlines or Air Namibia to Namibia’s Windhoek Hosea Kutako International Airport, for about Dh850. Flying time is 2 hours.
The stay
Wilderness Little Kulala offers stays from £460 (Dh2,135) per person, per night. It is one of seven Wilderness Safari lodges in Namibia; www.wilderness-safaris.com.
Skeleton Coast Safaris’ four-day adventure involves joining a very small group in a private plane, flying to some of the remotest areas in the world, with each night spent at a different camp. It costs from US$8,335.30 (Dh30,611); www.skeletoncoastsafaris.com
How Islam's view of posthumous transplant surgery changed
Transplants from the deceased have been carried out in hospitals across the globe for decades, but in some countries in the Middle East, including the UAE, the practise was banned until relatively recently.
Opinion has been divided as to whether organ donations from a deceased person is permissible in Islam.
The body is viewed as sacred, during and after death, thus prohibiting cremation and tattoos.
One school of thought viewed the removal of organs after death as equally impermissible.
That view has largely changed, and among scholars and indeed many in society, to be seen as permissible to save another life.
Results
1. New Zealand Daniel Meech – Fine (name of horse), Richard Gardner – Calisto, Bruce Goodin - Backatorps Danny V, Samantha McIntosh – Check In. Team total First round: 200.22; Second round: 201.75 – Penalties 12 (jump-off 40.16 seconds) Prize €64,000
2. Ireland Cameron Hanley – Aiyetoro, David Simpson – Keoki, Paul Kennedy – Cartown Danger Mouse, Shane Breen – Laith. Team total 200.25/202.84 – P 12 (jump-off 51.79 – P17) Prize €40,000
3. Italy Luca Maria Moneta – Connery, Luca Coata – Crandessa, Simone Coata – Dardonge, Natale Chiaudani – Almero. Team total 130.82/198.-4 – P20. Prize €32,000
