Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi meets US President Joe Biden in Washington on Monday in the latest round of dialogue on strengthening bilateral security.
In an interview published a day earlier, he touched on the focus of the meeting for political forces at home, saying: “There is no need for any foreign combat forces on Iraqi soil.”
US forces returned to Iraq in 2014 to lead an international effort against ISIS which largely focused on training and advising, although some US combat troops accompanied Iraqi Special Forces on anti-ISIS missions until 2019.
Mr Al Kadhimi has said before that Iraq no longer needed US combat troops, a position analysts consider to be symbolic because technically, the small US military presence in Iraq is there to train the Iraqi military.
Even if US forces were present solely for combat, the military “tooth to tail” ratio – the number of troops who can be deployed in battle (“tooth”) for every soldier in a logistical role (“tail”) would mean that in a crisis, fewer than 30 per cent of the 2,500 US soldiers in Iraq now would be able to fight at a given time, according to a 2007 US military study.
Without factoring in civilian contractors, the percentage available to fight would be far less.
US forces voted out?
Mr Al Kadhimi’s statements are aimed at Iraqi political parties who consider any presence of US combat forces as occupation.
The Iraqi parliament is dominated by parties linked to militias who are either accused of fighting US forces or have fought them in the past, including Asaib Ahl Al Haq and Saraya Al Salaam, headed by the radical cleric Moqtada Al Sadr.
There is also the powerful Badr Organisation, a group with strong influence in the Iraqi police which also has a number of parallel militias.
These groups fall under the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella organisation of paramilitary groups mostly linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
This is problematic for Mr Al Kadhimi.
PMF-linked parties passed a parliamentary resolution on January 5, 2020, that mandated the withdrawal of all US forces.
The resolution was passed two days after the US killed the de facto PMF head Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis in a drone strike near Baghdad. He was assassinated along with Iranian general Qassem Suleimani, characterised by many analysts as the brain of Iran’s regional irregular warfare efforts.
Parliament’s decision, some argued, was non-binding because under the Iraqi constitution legislation originates in the executive before being passed by lawmakers.
The prime minister at the time, Adel Abdul Mahdi, voiced support for a continued US presence despite initially supporting the vote.
“In view of the continued activity of ISIS terrorist gangs in many regions of Iraq ... it was decided to undertake joint actions [with the coalition] that provide facilities for our forces, ” he said in February 2020.
Mr Abdul Mahdi’s government was beset with other problems, including a nationwide protest movement and the coronavirus pandemic that would eventually spur his departure.
The US remains instrumental in supporting Iraq's counter-terrorism efforts, including providing maintenance for high-end equipment such as F-16 jets. This has been vital for keeping ISIS remnants suppressed in Iraq’s hinterlands, useful for Mr Al Kadhimi, given how politically damaging large ISIS attacks are in Iraq.
Kadhimi's balancing act
Mr Al Kadhimi, who replaced Mr Abdul Mahdi in May last year, consolidated his position with the backing of Mr Al Sadr’s powerful but unpredictable movement, which according to a recent Reuters investigation has continued to seed most of Iraq’s bureaucracy with loyalists.
A host of smaller moderate parties also backed Mr Al Kadhimi, taking the wind from momentum to remove coalition forces.
Mr Al Kadhimi’s announcement that US combat forces must leave Iraq will be likely to be seen as an attempt at appeasing rivals who demand nothing less than complete withdrawal.
It is difficult to tell what will happen next in Iraq's fractious parliament.
Iran-backed groups, including some of Iraq’s most well-equipped militias, are once again waiting to see whether political pressure can get them results.
For now, this means holding back from major attacks on US forces.
Mr Al Kadhimi might seek assurances of more US support in his efforts to rein in these groups. But like the Iran-backed groups, he is wary of major escalation.
Adding to the likelihood of inertia, Mr Biden’s government has little appetite for deeper engagement in Iraq, and the US military has shown reluctance to launch large-scale counter strikes after PMF attacks.
“The pro-Iran camp has the initiative because it can up the ante with more intense attacks any time it wants. US deterrence has been ineffective [in] hitting camps of Iran-backed groups out on the Iraq-Syrian border, and I've gotten the impression that US military doesn't like escalation,” said Joel Wing, a California-based analyst who has been tracking violence and political developments in Iraq for 13 years through his blog, Musings on Iraq.
"In Monday’s meeting, we can expect that a small reduction of US forces will be formalised, which will be unacceptable to radical Iran-backed groups."
Small-scale attacks, such as the explosive drone attack on a US military base in Iraq's Kurdish region on Friday, are likely to escalate once more and could prove fatal yet again.
But a strong response from Washington is unlikely. During his election campaign in 2019, Mr Biden touted his efforts to fully withdraw US forces from Iraq, despite Republican misgivings.
LUKA CHUPPI
Director: Laxman Utekar
Producer: Maddock Films, Jio Cinema
Cast: Kartik Aaryan, Kriti Sanon, Pankaj Tripathi, Vinay Pathak, Aparshakti Khurana
Rating: 3/5
SUZUME
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Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
The specs: 2018 Nissan 370Z Nismo
Price, base / as tested: Dh182,178
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Power: 350hp @ 7,400rpm
Torque: 374Nm @ 5,200rpm
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 10.5L / 100km
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How the bonus system works
The two riders are among several riders in the UAE to receive the top payment of £10,000 under the Thank You Fund of £16 million (Dh80m), which was announced in conjunction with Deliveroo's £8 billion (Dh40bn) stock market listing earlier this year.
The £10,000 (Dh50,000) payment is made to those riders who have completed the highest number of orders in each market.
There are also riders who will receive payments of £1,000 (Dh5,000) and £500 (Dh2,500).
All riders who have worked with Deliveroo for at least one year and completed 2,000 orders will receive £200 (Dh1,000), the company said when it announced the scheme.
Crazy Rich Asians
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan
Four stars
The Gentlemen
Director: Guy Ritchie
Stars: Colin Farrell, Hugh Grant
Three out of five stars
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Australia (15-1): Israel Folau; Dane Haylett-Petty, Reece Hodge, Kurtley Beale, Marika Koroibete; Bernard Foley, Will Genia; David Pocock, Michael Hooper (capt), Lukhan Tui; Adam Coleman, Izack Rodda; Sekope Kepu, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Tom Robertson.
Replacements: Tolu Latu, Allan Alaalatoa, Taniela Tupou, Rob Simmons, Pete Samu, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Jack Maddocks.
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Rocketman
Director: Dexter Fletcher
Starring: Taron Egerton, Richard Madden, Jamie Bell
Rating: 3 out of 5 stars
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What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
US PGA Championship in numbers
1 Joost Luiten produced a memorable hole in one at the par-three fourth in the first round.
2 To date, the only two players to win the PGA Championship after winning the week before are Rory McIlroy (2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational) and Tiger Woods (2007, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational). Hideki Matsuyama or Chris Stroud could have made it three.
3 Number of seasons without a major for McIlroy, who finished in a tie for 22nd.
4 Louis Oosthuizen has now finished second in all four of the game's major championships.
5 In the fifth hole of the final round, McIlroy holed his longest putt of the week - from 16ft 8in - for birdie.
6 For the sixth successive year, play was disrupted by bad weather with a delay of one hour and 43 minutes on Friday.
7 Seven under par (64) was the best round of the week, shot by Matsuyama and Francesco Molinari on Day 2.
8 Number of shots taken by Jason Day on the 18th hole in round three after a risky recovery shot backfired.
9 Jon Rahm's age in months the last time Phil Mickelson missed the cut in the US PGA, in 1995.
10 Jimmy Walker's opening round as defending champion was a 10-over-par 81.
11 The par-four 11th coincidentally ranked as the 11th hardest hole overall with a scoring average of 4.192.
12 Paul Casey was a combined 12 under par for his first round in this year's majors.
13 The average world ranking of the last 13 PGA winners before this week was 25. Kevin Kisner began the week ranked 25th.
14 The world ranking of Justin Thomas before his victory.
15 Of the top 15 players after 54 holes, only Oosthuizen had previously won a major.
16 The par-four 16th marks the start of Quail Hollow's so-called "Green Mile" of finishing holes, some of the toughest in golf.
17 The first round scoring average of the last 17 major champions was 67.2. Kisner and Thorbjorn Olesen shot 67 on day one at Quail Hollow.
18 For the first time in 18 majors, the eventual winner was over par after round one (Thomas shot 73).
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
BRAZIL%20SQUAD
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