Turkey's most critical election yet ended in uncertainty as neither incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu won more than 50 per cent of votes by Monday.
A final result rests on a second run-off, on May 28, the first in Turkey's history, despite turnout reaching a record high of 88.8 per cent on Sunday.
With exit polling banned in Turkey, the race remained on a knife edge for most of the evening.
Both candidates were confident of victory, but as votes arrived, Mr Erdogan's edge slimmed. By 11pm, state media predicted he had fallen short of the threshold for outright victory.
On Monday morning, the country's supreme election board said Mr Erdogan had won 49.4 per cent of the vote, with 99 per cent of domestic ballot boxes opened and more than 86 per cent of overseas ballot boxes counted.
It later confirmed that a second-run off would take place on May 28.
While both were certain of a first-round victory, Mr Erdogan and Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Mr Kilicdaroglu have accepted the uncertainty, with the President saying a second round is “welcome” if it is the will of the people.
“We will definitely, definitely win this election in the second round … and bring democracy,” said Mr Kilicdaroglu.
How the next few weeks will unfold is unclear. More than three million people voted from abroad at overseas diplomatic missions and airport customs.
They will now have to vote again, as will the more than 60 million eligible domestic voters — as long as voter apathy does not take hold.
One clear result emerging from Sunday's vote is the power yielded by nationalist presidential candidate Sinan Ogan, who managed to secure more than 5 per cent of the vote.
Mr Ogan said he would not back the opposition unless Mr Kilicdaroglu provides assurances that he would not give concessions to Kurdish parties, who have backed the CHP leader against Mr Erdogan.
“We will consult with our voter base for our decision in the run-off. But we already made clear that the fight against terrorism and sending refugees back are our red lines,” he told Reuters on Monday.
Why did Kilicdaroglu come second?
Analysts have told The National it will be difficult for the opposition to make a strong enough comeback to secure the presidency.
The result has surprised many, including Prof Mesut Yegen, a researcher at the Reform Institute in Istanbul, who said he expected Mr Kilicdaroglu to secure more votes than Mr Erdogan, if not enough for a majority.
“It's rather difficult for Kilicdaroglu to win and Erdogan to lose,” he said, citing a 4.5 per cent margin between the two rivals and the likelihood of most votes for Sinan Ogan going to the incumbent leader on May 28.
Reasons for Mr Kilicdaroglu's failure to clinch a victory are varied, he said, including the AKP's efforts to link the opposition to the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK), designated a terror group in Turkey.
“Erdogan has been quite successful in convincing Turkish voters, or the majority of them, that there is a link between the PKK and Kilicdaroglu, While we were expecting the first topic on the agenda would be the economy and inflation rates, Erdogan managed to change the agenda,” he told The National.
“Many people bought this idea that integrity of the state is under threat.”
Secondly, he said, was the opposition's diverse six-party alliance, which, although it endorsed Mr Kilicdaroglu as its presidential candidate, is composed of a number of parties with varying political views, some of which are significantly more right-wing than the CHP.
“Erdogan is a strong candidate, and the opposition had seven or eight figures, including for vice-president. Again, he seems to have persuaded voters that there would be a crisis and governance problems if the opposition won.”
Despite the result, EU leaders have praised Turkey for the record turnout.
“It's a very clear sign that the Turkish people are committed to exercising their democratic rights to go and vote and that they value the democratic institutions,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Mr Erdogan has been building up to this election for years, with both he and his rival touring the country, including earthquake-hit areas, to drum up votes.
Parliamentary vote
With only two weeks until voters return to the polls, they may focus on the urban centres of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir — often decisive in calling the election — to turn the tide in their favour.
More decisive, however, was the parliamentary vote which also took place on Sunday.
Media affiliated with the ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) proclaimed victory for Mr Erdogan in the parliament, which may give him an edge entering the second round of voting.
Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at Chatham House international affairs think tank, said Mr Erdogan's ruling alliance would go into the second round “with numeric and psychological advantages”.
“During the campaign period ahead of the run-off, Mr Erdogan is likely to emphasise stability as he already retains the majority in the parliament,” Mr Dalay told AFP.
Groom and Two Brides
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The drill
Recharge as needed, says Mat Dryden: “We try to make it a rule that every two to three months, even if it’s for four days, we get away, get some time together, recharge, refresh.” The couple take an hour a day to check into their businesses and that’s it.
Stick to the schedule, says Mike Addo: “We have an entire wall known as ‘The Lab,’ covered with colour-coded Post-it notes dedicated to our joint weekly planner, content board, marketing strategy, trends, ideas and upcoming meetings.”
Be a team, suggests Addo: “When training together, you have to trust in each other’s abilities. Otherwise working out together very quickly becomes one person training the other.”
Pull your weight, says Thuymi Do: “To do what we do, there definitely can be no lazy member of the team.”
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The biog
Born: Kuwait in 1986
Family: She is the youngest of seven siblings
Time in the UAE: 10 years
Hobbies: audiobooks and fitness: she works out every day, enjoying kickboxing and basketball
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
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Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Dirham Stretcher tips for having a baby in the UAE
Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:
• Buy second hand stuff
They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.
• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres
Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.
• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.
Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.
• Once baby is ready for solids, cook at home
Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.
Tamkeen's offering
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Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
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ACC 2019: The winners in full
Best Actress Maha Alemi, Sofia
Best Actor Mohamed Dhrif, Weldi
Best Screenplay Meryem Benm’Barek, Sofia
Best Documentary Of Fathers and Sons by Talal Derki
Best Film Yomeddine by Abu Bakr Shawky
Best Director Nadine Labaki, Capernaum
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