The three months that have passed since devastating earthquakes laid waste to cities across southern Turkey have seen progress towards President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s promise to “rebuild from the ground up”.
The scale of the task ahead, however, remains no less daunting after the clearing of rubble and the unveiling of new housing.
Rebuilding the earthquake zone is taking place as Turkey faces elections on May 14 and the effect of the disaster on voting behaviour has been widely debated. Polls show the race could be the toughest of Mr Erdogan's 20-year rule.
The economic cost of the February 6 quakes is estimated at $103.6 billion, or about 10 per cent of Turkey’s GDP. The cost, revealed in a March report from the presidency’s strategy and budget office, covers damage to buildings, infrastructure, industry, insurance and the ensuing macroeconomic impact.
Then there is the human cost. The most recent official estimate is that 50,783 people lost their lives in an area covering 110,000 square kilometres, which is roughly the size of Bulgaria.
About 3 million people initially fled the 11 provinces hit by the disaster, leaving more than 300,000 buildings destroyed or unsafe. It is unclear how many have returned.
In the days immediately after the disaster, Mr Erdogan pledged to repair the destruction within a year — a commitment that seemed fanciful given the mammoth reconstruction effort and expenditure required.
On April 22, the President unveiled the first new homes — 10 village houses in Nurdagi, close to the epicentre in Kahramanmaras province.
“We’ve started the construction of more than 105,000 houses and completed the ground-breaking of almost half of them,” Mr Erdogan said.
He has promised to rebuild 650,000 homes, including 319,000 within a year. The new buildings will be no more than four storeys and located on ground that will mitigate the effects of future tremors.
But the government’s timetable seems unrealistic and some say it has underestimated the magnitude of reconstruction.
Reconstruction and prevention
Burcu Aydin Ozudogru, a director at the Tepav think tank in Ankara, said the earthquakes would have “a significant and long-term negative impact on the Turkish economy, especially on growth, employment, inflation, fiscal and financial accounts, wealth and poverty”.
Tepav estimated the cost of the recovery will reach $150 billion over a five-year period and slow Turkey’s economic growth by 1.2 per cent this year.
The earthquakes have also focused attention on other at-risk parts of the country, notably Istanbul, Turkey’s mega-city of 16 million. With about 90,000 structures at risk of collapse should a big tremor hit, the city needs to spend at least $19 billion to fortify its building stock, according to Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
In a report released this week, Turkey’s Chamber of Architects said reconstruction and recovery efforts have failed to address the need to protect public health, create safe living conditions and meet essential needs.
It also said that reconstruction projects worth billions of lira had been allocated without following procurement laws.
“By ignoring public and legal supervision, the planning and zoning process in the region began to be restructured, focusing on the transformation of public resources, cities, natural and cultural utilities into investment instruments,” the report said.
The international community, meanwhile, has rallied to provide financial support.
At an EU donors’ conference in March $7.69 billion was pledged for reconstruction, including $1 billion for Syria. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank have offered loans worth a total of $3.4 billion.
The question remains how Turkey will make up the shortfall. Mr Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies and the erosion of the rule of law have scared off foreign investors and any foreign borrowing would attract high rates.
Hard-hit domestic banks are already struggling to cope with a series of measures forced on them by the government in a bid to buoy the faltering economy.
Compounding a dire economic situation, the cost burden of the earthquakes and Turkey’s reliance on overseas financing to rebuild homes, factories, roads and most other aspects of life has led to questions about the country’s status in the world.
Mr Erdogan has long championed the view of Ankara as a global leader, steering its own course in international affairs and offering an alternative to European and US leadership.
“There’s nothing wrong with asking for help in a time of need,” said Namik Tan, Turkey’s former Washington ambassador who is standing as an opposition parliamentary candidate in this month’s election.
“But it was scarcely a few months before the earthquakes that we were bragging about how Turkey ‘provided the most humanitarian aid in the world [based on per capita income]'.
“Now we hear from our government that the least developed countries have been digging into their pockets for us. Now we see our own near bankruptcy, heretofore skilfully concealed, poking its ugly head out.”
The most heavily affected provinces, with the exception of Hatay, are under the control of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). How Mr Erdogan’s supporters will react to the government’s post-earthquake policies at the ballot box will not become apparent until election day.
“I think many AKP voters would agree with the point that the government was ill-equipped and insufficient in its response, especially within the first 72 hours,” said Berk Esen, assistant professor of political science at Sabanci University in Istanbul.
“That doesn’t mean that it’s going to lead to a major electoral decline for the party in the region but I think it was a heavy blow and it’s already impacted the AKP government economically.
“They were planning to distribute more resources in the lead up to the election and the earthquake simply suffocated those efforts and depleted their resources, which is why the regime has become even weaker than it otherwise would have been.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
JAPAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Masaaki Higashiguchi, Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt
Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Tomoaki Makino, Maya Yoshida, Sho Sasaki, Hiroki Sakai, Sei Muroya, Genta Miura, Takehiro Tomiyasu
Midfielders: Toshihiro Aoyama, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki, Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Takumi Minamino, Hidemasa Morita, Ritsu Doan
Forwards: Yuya Osako, Takuma Asano, Koya Kitagawa
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The biog
Alwyn Stephen says much of his success is a result of taking an educated chance on business decisions.
His advice to anyone starting out in business is to have no fear as life is about taking on challenges.
“If you have the ambition and dream of something, follow that dream, be positive, determined and set goals.
"Nothing and no-one can stop you from succeeding with the right work application, and a little bit of luck along the way.”
Mr Stephen sells his luxury fragrances at selected perfumeries around the UAE, including the House of Niche Boutique in Al Seef.
He relaxes by spending time with his family at home, and enjoying his wife’s India cooking.
Specs
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How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
Country-size land deals
US interest in purchasing territory is not as outlandish as it sounds. Here's a look at some big land transactions between nations:
Louisiana Purchase
If Donald Trump is one who aims to broker "a deal of the century", then this was the "deal of the 19th Century". In 1803, the US nearly doubled in size when it bought 2,140,000 square kilometres from France for $15 million.
Florida Purchase Treaty
The US courted Spain for Florida for years. Spain eventually realised its burden in holding on to the territory and in 1819 effectively ceded it to America in a wider border treaty.
Alaska purchase
America's spending spree continued in 1867 when it acquired 1,518,800 km2 of Alaskan land from Russia for $7.2m. Critics panned the government for buying "useless land".
The Philippines
At the end of the Spanish-American War, a provision in the 1898 Treaty of Paris saw Spain surrender the Philippines for a payment of $20 million.
US Virgin Islands
It's not like a US president has never reached a deal with Denmark before. In 1917 the US purchased the Danish West Indies for $25m and renamed them the US Virgin Islands.
Gwadar
The most recent sovereign land purchase was in 1958 when Pakistan bought the southwestern port of Gwadar from Oman for 5.5bn Pakistan rupees.
Squads
Sri Lanka Tharanga (c), Mathews, Dickwella (wk), Gunathilaka, Mendis, Kapugedera, Siriwardana, Pushpakumara, Dananjaya, Sandakan, Perera, Hasaranga, Malinga, Chameera, Fernando.
India Kohli (c), Dhawan, Rohit, Rahul, Pandey, Rahane, Jadhav, Dhoni (wk), Pandya, Axar, Kuldeep, Chahal, Bumrah, Bhuvneshwar, Thakur.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
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The Year Earth Changed
Directed by:Tom Beard
Narrated by: Sir David Attenborough
Stars: 4
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
if you go
The flights
Fly to Rome with Etihad (www.etihad.ae) or Emirates (www.emirates.com) from Dh2,480 return including taxes. The flight takes six hours. Fly from Rome to Trapani with Ryanair (www.ryanair.com) from Dh420 return including taxes. The flight takes one hour 10 minutes.
The hotels
The author recommends the following hotels for this itinerary. In Trapani, Ai Lumi (www.ailumi.it); in Marsala, Viacolvento (www.viacolventomarsala.it); and in Marsala Del Vallo, the Meliaresort Dimore Storiche (www.meliaresort.it).
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Graduated from the American University of Sharjah
She is the eldest of three brothers and two sisters
Has helped solve 15 cases of electric shocks
Enjoys travelling, reading and horse riding
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
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AT4 Ultimate, as tested
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