What's next for Riad Salameh as French inquiry speeds up?

As the French investigation into Riad Salameh gathers pace, with recent reports indicating that French judges intend to press preliminary charges at his hearing on May 16, many wonder what lies ahead for Lebanon's embattled Central Bank Governor.

The French judiciary, along with five other countries, is part of a cross-border investigative team looking into an alleged scheme allegedly designed by Mr Salameh to embezzle millions of dollars from the central bank through commissions paid by commercial banks to a shell company owned by his brother Raja.

The investigators suspect that the embezzled funds were then invested in high-end property across several European countries, including France, Belgium, the UK and Germany, using the banking systems of Switzerland and Luxembourg.

Both brothers have denied any wrongdoing.

With multiple investigations spanning different countries and a litany of charges, it can be challenging to discern the precise legal consequences at hand, and what they would entail.

What would happen if Riad Salameh does not show up at his hearing in France? Could he be indicted in absentia? Would Lebanon be willing to extradite him? What are the chances that the once acclaimed governor will be sentenced to jail?

Here is our analysis of the different scenarios after May 16:

Red notice for Salameh?

Pierre Olivier Sur, the governor's lawyer in France, stated that his client has not yet decided whether he will show up at his hearing in France, where he faces potential indictment, Reuters reported.

According to sources close to the matter, intense negotiations are currently under way between the governor and the French judiciary about his attendance.

Riad Salameh, who is a dual citizen of Lebanon and France, may attend if he secures a good deal with the judiciary, which includes certain advantages such as freedom of movement during the time of the proceedings in exchange for posting bail. He could also receive a reduced sentence in exchange for providing information.

In the event that no deal is found and Riad Salameh fails to attend, France could issue an international arrest warrant and ask Interpol to issue a red notice, which is a request to law enforcement agencies worldwide to locate and provisionally arrest an individual. This would effectively prevent Riad Salameh from leaving Lebanon.

It is worth noting that under French law, an indictment means that an investigation has advanced to a stage where there is enough evidence to support a formal accusation of wrongdoing.

Yet, it is not the end of the investigation. It could take several more months before an order of settlement, which will present the judge's findings to a prosecutor, is issued.

Sources suggest that French judge Aude Buresi initially aimed for her investigation to be done by June.

Depending on the judge's evaluation of the case, the outcome could be a non-lieu decision, meaning a dismissal of charges against the indicted individuals, or a referral to court.

If the evidence is considered compelling enough and a trial is initiated, Riad Salameh could face up to 10 years in prison based on the charges outlined in the French file.

A final verdict may take several years to be reached, but his assets would remain frozen during the legal proceedings.

If he is found guilty, his misappropriated assets could be recovered by Lebanon through mechanisms proposed in the new “ill-gotten assets” law passed in France in 2021.

This law allows harmed states to recover stolen assets, on certain conditions. These include measures ensuring that they do not fall into the same patterns of corruption.

A Carlos Ghosn déjà vu

If Riad Salameh fails to co-operate, he may face indictment and trial in absentia, allowing the legal proceedings to move forward in France while he stays in Lebanon.

There, the governor would be out of the French judiciary's reach thanks to Lebanon's long-standing policy of not extraditing its own citizens, former Justice Minister Marie-Claude Najm explained in an interview with The National.

“Extradition is governed by Articles 30 to 36 of the criminal code and is not allowed when it concerns Lebanese citizens unless there is an extradition treaty that provides for such between the involved countries,” she said.

“Mr Salameh would not be extradited based on Lebanese legal provisions and in the absence of an extradition treaty.”

This scenario draws a comparison to that of Carlos Ghosn, the Lebanese businessman who fled from his house arrest in Japan to Lebanon.

Despite being subject to an international arrest warrant, Lebanon has refused to extradite him, and he now lives a — seemingly — normal life in Beirut.

“The major difference is that Mr Salameh does not work in the private sector, like Mr Ghosn. He is the head of the banking system regulator and a key interlocutor of the international community,” said lawyer Wadih Akl, a member of the political bureau of the Free Patriotic Movement political party.

A French diplomatic source who chose to remain anonymous, does not believe that this case could have an impact on diplomatic relations between France and Lebanon, in the event of non-extradition, emphasising the separation of power between politics and the judiciary.

“The case against Mr Salameh is not political, it is rooted in allegations of financial crimes in Europe and therefore does not fall under the diplomatic sphere,” the source told The National.

However, the diplomat conceded that if charges were brought and Riad Salameh remained in his current position, “it would not reflect well on Lebanon”, at a moment when the cash-strapped country is negotiating with the IMF for a loan to address its steep economic crisis.

'Lame duck'

In any case, if extradition seems out of the question, Lebanon appears to recognise the potential damage to its reputation by retaining Riad Salameh as governor while he faces increasing legal challenges.

“There are already continuing talks to find his successor,” said political scientist Karim Emile Bitar.

While Riad Salameh's mandate, which started in 1993, is set to expire at the end of June, “an indictment could expedite the process of finding a replacement,” he added.

There appears to be both international and local consensus on appointing Camille Abou Sleiman, a lawyer and former labour minister, to replace Riad Salameh, as local media has been widely reporting.

As he loses his political backing, he will probably be viewed “as a lame duck”, Mr Bitar said. But he still holds a valuable card — the information he acquired as one of the most influential figures of the now completely collapsed Lebanese financial system, which could implicate others in wrongdoing and potentially bring them down alongside him.

“His security in Lebanon will be the main issue as he could face retaliation or other threats,” Mr Bitar said.