The truce between Israel and Gaza Strip militants could hold for a few months, but a longer-lasting peace deal remains unlikely, analysts told The National.
After three days of violence that claimed the lives of 44 Palestinians inside the enclave, according to the Palestinian health ministry, Egypt brokered a ceasefire between Israel and militants in Gaza that came into effect on Sunday night.
The three-day conflict began when Israel launched targeted attacks on members of the Iran-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad inside Gaza. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said its operation, codenamed Breaking Dawn, was responding to threats from the militant group after the arrest of one of its senior members in the occupied West Bank last week.
Former Egyptian foreign minister Nabil Fahmy said the truce's fate will depend on factors including Israel’s ability to appease the PIJ in the coming days.
He said it is in Israel's best interests to end the violence, as it prepares for its latest legislative election in November.
“What I anticipate is for a short-term peace to be upheld between both sides which can even extend into the medium-term provided both sides get a decent takeaway from the negotiations,” Mr Fahmy said. “However, the ideological differences between both sides run far too deep for any long-lasting peace agreement to be reached.”
He said that because Israel, through its undeniable military supremacy over the Palestinian side, was able to claim the three-day conflict as a victory for its defence forces, the PIJ’s legitimacy as an effective resistance group took a hit. This could make it more aggressive towards Israel in the coming weeks if its demands are not met.
There was a marked difference between the tones of both sides’ public statements following the announcement of the truce. Where Israel was diplomatic and lauded Egypt’s efforts to broker the ceasefire, the PIJ was aggressive and promised to escalate the conflict further if Israel did not release Bassam Al Saadi and Khalil Awawda, two key PIJ figures in Israeli custody.
PIJ secretary general Ziad Nakhaleh issued a statement claiming that Israel had agreed to release the two prisoners but was now defaulting on its promise.
Mr Fahmy added that the imbalance in casualties in the latest round of violence, with 44 Palestinians dead compared to no Israeli casualties, had undoubtedly made the PIJ take a more hardline approach.
“The PIJ needs to get a takeaway from whatever agreement comes out because their legitimacy is going to be lessened if they don’t,” he said.
“If Israel wants a peace that extends beyond a simple military victory, they are going to have to provide some accommodation to the PIJ and they will therefore have to balance between appearing strong but also a little lenient when it needs to be.”
On Monday, an Israeli official told Times of Israel that the country’s security apparatus had not agreed to release either prisoner. But the official said Israel was “absolutely aware that there is an opportunity in the aftermath that we don’t want to miss” and that there was desire on Israel’s side to also bring Hamas into its negotiations with the PIJ. Hamas is holding two Israelis captive as well as the bodies of two others.
Operation Breaking Dawn has been widely denounced by rights groups all over the world. Human Rights Watch issued a statement on Monday saying that Israeli aggression in the Gaza Strip often goes unpunished and, in the absence of accountability, the violence is likely to continue.
“Every time Gaza is pounded by Israeli fire, focus is brought to bear on bringing about a ceasefire, and then the focus on bringing about a more sustainable solution ends," said senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace H A Hellyer.
"Gaza is under occupation and under siege, according to the United Nations and most governments, with these periodic bombardments only increasing the difficulties that Palestinians in Gaza live under. However, as long as such operations prove to be popular in Israeli politics, and there is little accountability for them, the cycle of violence is likely to continue.”
Iran’s nuclear deal with the US could also play a role in the negotiations between Israel and Gaza. Mr Fahmy said that because Iran backs the PIJ through funding and armament, if its talks with the US fall through, it could encourage a more aggressive attitude towards Israel among the various militant groups it funds.
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Joe Root (captain), Alastair Cook, Keaton Jennings, Gary Ballance, Jonny Bairstow (wicketkeeper), Ben Stokes (vice-captain), Moeen Ali, Liam Dawson, Toby Roland-Jones, Stuart Broad, Mark Wood, James Anderson.
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
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Notable salonnières of the Middle East through history
Al Khasan (Okaz, Saudi Arabia)
Tamadir bint Amr Al Harith, known simply as Al Khasan, was a poet from Najd famed for elegies, earning great renown for the eulogy of her brothers Mu’awiyah and Sakhr, both killed in tribal wars. Although not a salonnière, this prestigious 7th century poet fostered a culture of literary criticism and could be found standing in the souq of Okaz and reciting her poetry, publicly pronouncing her views and inviting others to join in the debate on scholarship. She later converted to Islam.
Maryana Marrash (Aleppo)
A poet and writer, Marrash helped revive the tradition of the salon and was an active part of the Nadha movement, or Arab Renaissance. Born to an established family in Aleppo in Ottoman Syria in 1848, Marrash was educated at missionary schools in Aleppo and Beirut at a time when many women did not receive an education. After touring Europe, she began to host salons where writers played chess and cards, competed in the art of poetry, and discussed literature and politics. An accomplished singer and canon player, music and dancing were a part of these evenings.
Princess Nazil Fadil (Cairo)
Princess Nazil Fadil gathered religious, literary and political elite together at her Cairo palace, although she stopped short of inviting women. The princess, a niece of Khedive Ismail, believed that Egypt’s situation could only be solved through education and she donated her own property to help fund the first modern Egyptian University in Cairo.
Mayy Ziyadah (Cairo)
Ziyadah was the first to entertain both men and women at her Cairo salon, founded in 1913. The writer, poet, public speaker and critic, her writing explored language, religious identity, language, nationalism and hierarchy. Born in Nazareth, Palestine, to a Lebanese father and Palestinian mother, her salon was open to different social classes and earned comparisons with souq of where Al Khansa herself once recited.
