Jordan's regional influence boosted by latest calm in Jerusalem

Violence sparked by Israeli incursions into Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque this month has thrust Jordan into the forefront of efforts to prevent another war.

The cooldown helped bring back some of Jordan’s regional influence, but showed the limitations of a country undercut by Middle East shifts and sharp economic retreat.

A parched kingdom of 10 million, Jordan has historically owed its outsized role to its location across the Jordan River from Israel and to the dynamics of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A large proportion of Jordan's population are of Palestinian origin.

Even before the latest violence started at the onset of Ramadan, King Abdullah campaigned for an assertive Arab position to pre-empt the unrest.

He sought and received enhanced Arab recognition for Jordan over its custodianship of the shrine, one of the holiest in Islam.

On the domestic scene, Jordanian officials portrayed Al Aqsa as integral to the sociopolitical fabric of the kingdom.

Umayyad Ruler Hisham bin Malik built the mosque in the eighth century on the contested site Muslims call Al Haram Al Sharif, in East Jerusalem, which was under Jordanian administration until 1967.

“The entire 144,000 square metres of the Al Haram Al Sharif is solely a Muslim place of worship,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Al Safadi said on Monday.

He said long-term agreements must be reached by resuming Palestinian-Israeli negotiations to prevent any repeat of the violence. The talks were halted eight years ago as the right strengthened its grip on the political scene in Israel.

Violence at Al Aqsa Mosque - in pictures

The last time violence flared up at Al Aqsa, during Ramadan in May last year, it led to an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas, the militant group supported by Iran.

The war further undermined the beleaguered Palestinian Authority of President Mahmoud Abbas, which is strongly backed by Jordan, by exposing the PA as powerless to influence the events.

Intervention by the US put an end to the war, after more than 200 Palestinians were killed and 12 people in Israel by rockets fired from Gaza.

The conflict ignited civil strife in Israel proper, with bloodshed between Arab and Jewish communities.

After the war ended, and contrary to what Jordan hoped, Washington did not pursue a resumption of peace negotiations.

President Joe Biden continued his predecessor Donald Trump's policies of encouraging normalisation between Israel and Arab states in the Gulf and North Africa.

In the past few days, however, Israel has backed down. Morocco and the UAE, which had co-ordinated with Jordan, had summoned Israeli envoys to condemn what they described as Israeli attacks on Palestinians at the compound. The two countries normalised relations with Israel in 2020.

Israel curbed Jewish entry to Al Aqsa after scores of people, mainly Palestinians, were wounded at the mosque this month.

In addition to outside pressure, other considerations may have influenced Israel.

Its coalition government is fragile and is dealing with other external challenges, such as Iranian presence in Syria, which might expand as Russia devotes more resources to its war on Ukraine.

Jordanian professor Hassan Al Momani said that while the Israeli government has to placate its right-wing constituencies, it cannot afford to jeopardise the 1994 peace deal between Israel and Jordan.

While the agreement does not specifically mention a Jordanian custodianship of Al Aqsa, its spirit is predicated on Israel respecting the status quo that existed before 1967, he said.

Jordan annexed East Jerusalem and the West Bank in the middle of the last century, before losing the territories to Israel in the 1967 war.

International law 'on Jordan’s side'

Under restrictions dating from Ottoman times, Jews were largely banned from entering the top of the site. Lower down is the famous Western Wall, the last remains of the Jewish Second Temple, which Rome destroyed in the year 70 AD.

But in a major provocation in 2000, the late Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, who was an opposition figure at the time, toured the site, protected by hundreds of police, ushering in a new era of Israeli intransigence.

“Israel is an occupying power and international law is on Jordan’s side,” said Prof Momani, an international studies specialist at Jordan University.

He said Jordan had no option but to act on the latest crisis because "Al Aqsa is part of the legitimacy of its rule".

But he said Jordan’s goal of resuming Israeli-Palestinian talks remains far-fetched, considering western occupation with Ukraine.

Palestinian-Israeli tension remains high. On Tuesday, Israeli forces stormed a refugee camp in the occupied West Bank and a Palestinian man was killed on the site.

A European diplomat expected little progress in the direction of long-term calm, although he said Jordan remains a crucial moderate player.

“The Arab position has been a blow to Israel and Jordan can take some credit for that. But attention is on Ukraine and the Palestinian Authority is too weak of a counterpart in any talks," he said.

“The international approach will continue to be 'fix it as you go'."