Two years have passed since the Trump administration ordered the assassination of Iran’s top general Qassem Suleimani in hopes of not only sending a message to Iran but halting much of Iran’s ambitions across the region.
While the general's death has seemingly done little to stop Iran’s regional ambitions, his absence has certainly dented the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and delivered a blow to Iran’s strength and transnational networks, according to Arash Azizi, a journalist and author of The Shadow Commander: Soleimani, the US, and Iran's Global Ambitions.
“Mr Suleimani was one of the most unique operatives in the history of modern warfare, not just in the Middle East but anywhere in the world,” Azizi told The National, pointing out that the general commanded a multinational ideological army of more 100,000 that spanned the region.
But while Suleimani’s legacy is unique and impressive, it is not one that is likely to be long-lasting, he said.
Esmail Qaani, who was appointed head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force just hours after the assassination, has failed to fill the shoes of his predecessor, Azizi said.
“Mr Qaani lacks Suleimani's charisma, diplomatic acumen, fluent command of the Arabic language and years of experience in building personal relationships with the Iranian regime's allies in the region, such as Hassan Nasrallah, head of Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Iraqi militia leaders.”
In Iraq in particular, Suleimani’s death was a massive loss in terms of keeping a degree of cohesion among the already “discordant and disunited” Shiite militias, Azizi said. The effects of that were seen in the October general election, when Iran-backed groups lost most of their seats in Iraq's parliament.
Adnan Tabatabai, co-founder and chief executive of the German-based think tank Carpo, said the assassination of Abu Mahdi Al Muhandis, leader of Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who was also killed in the drone strike on Suleimani outside Baghdad airport, had a large part to play in the disunity among its member militias.
The death of Al Muhandis “unleashed a dangerous inner-Iraqi competition”, he said.
Mr Tabatabai said that both Al Muhandis and Suleimani were able to “tame the ambitions of these groups”, but the double assassination and the varying “pledge for vendetta and leadership claims” by PMF units undermined their cohesion.
The problem now for Iran, Iraq and the Quds Force is that “mobilising them for an attack will still work, while demanding these groups to hold back has become increasingly difficult”, he said. This “endangers the stability of Iraq and exacerbates the vulnerability of US presence”.
Suleimani was highly focused on Iran’s relationship and dominance in Iraq and his legacy there, in particular, is a complicated one. Under his direction, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard was a critical component to fighting ISIS. Suleimani often put himself at the front lines and forged close ties not just with Shiite groups, but also with Iraqi Kurdish parties, so he was respected and revered, Azizi said.
However, Iran and Suleimani’s role in suppressing Iraqi political movements, especially the bloody crackdown on the 2019 protests, and taking an outsize role in Iraq’s governance, often undermined Iraq’s sovereignty, according to Azizi. “Most people don’t like a strong and bigger neighbour undermining their country’s sovereignty, even if they are both from the Shia community,” he noted.
Holding on to the gains made by Suleimani a near impossible task not just because of his loss but also because of what Iran is promoting. Its theocratic government is one of a kind and widely unpopular even within Iran: over the 40 years of its existence, Iranians have often taken to the streets. It is, as Azizi says, “effectively unexportable”.
Countries where Iran has a big presence and has tried to export its ideology are not, as Azizi says, “enviable” places. Syria and Yemen have been stuck in civil wars that have caused widespread destruction and hunger. In Iraq and Lebanon, Iran’s network of allies has created a system of corruption that has led to ineffective and hamstrung governments.
Even before Suleimani’s death, Iraqi and Lebanese people were taking to the streets to protest against Iran’s role in creating government corruption and exacerbating sectarianism.
Lastly, the impact of US economic sanctions on Iran’s ability to project influence beyond its borders should not be dismissed. Suleimani’s ability to expand and create these alliances were costly for Iran; the US sanctions curtailed its ability to fund regional activity to some degree, although not as much as the former Trump administration would have hoped. The budget for 2022 more than doubled funding for the Revolutionary Guard, from 403 trillion rials to 930 trillion rials ($22 billion).
Despite all of these factors, Iran’s power in the region does not solely rely on its political influence, or even its financial backing of like-minded groups across the region. Iran still has military might, and Azizi says this is not something that will just fade away.
Mr Tabatabai attributes this to the institutionalised structure of the Quds Force. Iran’s military, although an ally in the fight against ISIS in both Iraq and Syria, also used its influence and might in Syria to support President Bashar Al Assad, and its military has backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. These aspects of Suleimani’s legacy — the aspects that are devoid of Iranian ideology — are unlikely to fade.
Despite the assassination of its revered general, Iran has continued to forge its path in the region both militarily and diplomatically, and it is unlikely to fully lose its footing in those countries where Suleimani invested his time.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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BRIEF SCORES
England 353 and 313-8 dec
(B Stokes 112, A Cook 88; M Morkel 3-70, K Rabada 3-85)
(J Bairstow 63, T Westley 59, J Root 50; K Maharaj 3-50)
South Africa 175 and 252
(T Bavuma 52; T Roland-Jones 5-57, J Anderson 3-25)
(D Elgar 136; M Ali 4-45, T Roland-Jones 3-72)
Result: England won by 239 runs
England lead four-match series 2-1
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
The%20specs
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Sour%20Grapes
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Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
NYBL PROFILE
Company name: Nybl
Date started: November 2018
Founder: Noor Alnahhas, Michael LeTan, Hafsa Yazdni, Sufyaan Abdul Haseeb, Waleed Rifaat, Mohammed Shono
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Software Technology / Artificial Intelligence
Initial investment: $500,000
Funding round: Series B (raising $5m)
Partners/Incubators: Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 4, Dubai Future Accelerators Cohort 6, AI Venture Labs Cohort 1, Microsoft Scale-up
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
Results
2.30pm: Park Avenue – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (Dirt) 2,000m; Winner: Rb Seqondtonone, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
3.05pm: Al Furjan – Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Bosphorus, Dane O’Neill, Bhupat Seemar
3.40pm: Mina – Rated Condition (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Royal Mews, Tadhg O’Shea, Bhupat Seemar
4.15pm: Aliyah – Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (T) 1,900m; Winner: Ursa Minor, Ray Dawson, Ahmad bin Harmash
4.50pm: Riviera Beach – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh95,000 (D) 2,200m; Winner: Woodditton, Saif Al Balushi, Ahmad bin Harmash
5.25pm: Riviera – Handicap (TB) Dh2,000 (T) 2,000m; Winner: Al Madhar, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
6pm: Creek Views – Handicap (TB) Dh95,000 (T) 1,400m; Winner: Al Salt, Dane O’Neill, Erwan Charpy
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
DUNGEONS%20%26%20DRAGONS%3A%20HONOR%20AMONG%20THIEVES
%3Cp%3EDirectors%3A%20John%20Francis%20Daley%20and%20Jonathan%20Goldstein%3Cbr%3EStars%3A%20Chris%20Pine%2C%20Michelle%20Rodriguez%2C%20Rege-Jean%20Page%2C%20Justice%20Smith%2C%20Sophia%20Lillis%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Movie: Saheb, Biwi aur Gangster 3
Producer: JAR Films
Director: Tigmanshu Dhulia
Cast: Sanjay Dutt, Jimmy Sheirgill, Mahie Gill, Chitrangda Singh, Kabir Bedi
Rating: 3 star
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
Remaining fixtures
Third-place-play-off: Portugal v Mexico, 4pm on Sunday
Final: Chile v Germany, 10pm on Sunday
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
