Hope remains that the US, Iran and the EU can reach an agreement on reviving the 2015 nuclear pact as negotiators resume talks in Vienna on Thursday, according to Vali Nasr, a former US State Department senior adviser.
The talks ended last week amid an air of pessimism, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying time was running out for a deal.
In Tehran, a senior diplomat said US reluctance to guarantee lifting sanctions was the obstacle.
However, both sides on a “fundamental level” need to make a deal and that is a good thing, according to Mr Nasr, now a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
For Iran, the incentive is the lifting of US sanctions imposed by former president Donald Trump that have seriously damaged its economy. For the US, there are concerns that failure to reach a deal could lead to a regional crisis and conflict, Mr Nasr told The National.
He said the grim scenarios that the 2015 nuclear agreement sought to prevent had returned.
Mr Nasr said the dangers increase if Iran heads towards nuclear weapons capability,
“That’s a scenario in which we know how to start a conflict, but nobody in Washington is confident that they can contain it or end it.
“Not only would it be costly for the US but very costly for Iran’s neighbours, and one thing Iran has made clear is that a war would not be contained on Iranian soil.”
Mr Nasr said the main problem in the negotiations was a lack of trust. Iran's leadership has lost its trust in the US and that sanctions will be lifted at all.
“What makes these talks difficult for Iran is that going back into a deal without US guarantees is risky ... hugely risky.”
The 2015 deal was reached during the final year in office of Mr Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama. Former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate who faced criticism for the agreement from Iranian hardliners, was succeeded by hardline President Ebrahim Raisi in August.
“If a deal is made then, in two years when a new [US] president comes in everything comes back, Mr Raisi loses face, Iran's supreme leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] loses face and then the moderates will be back and say you didn’t do any better,” Mr Nasr said.
Iran is still willing to cut a deal, but the question is at what price, Mr Nasr said.
The Iranians have been asking for a guarantee that a repeat of 2018 – when Mr Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal – will not happen, but this is guarantee that President Joe Biden cannot give, he said.
“The US is basically telling them, 'You give up your nuclear programme, go back to 2015, give up missiles, cut back in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen; you do all those things but we cannot guarantee that sanctions won’t come back.' For Iran, this won’t work.”
Iran responded to Mr Trump's withdrawal from the nuclear pact, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, by incrementally breaching the limits set on its levels of enriched uranium and stockpiles, a tactic Mr Nasr said was dictated by the US style of negotiation.
“When you go the table with the US, the US runs a really rough bargain – 'I can impose sanctions on you and it is nothing to me. What do you have to bargain with me?' The problem Iran had under Trump, which it is trying to avoid now, is the issue of leverage. With the signing of the JCPOA, Iran gave up any leverage it may have had, leaving them vulnerable during the Trump years.”
Now the tactic is to “build as big and scary a programme as possible”, creating an incentive for the US to come to the table, he said.
Mr Nasr said another obstacle to progress in the talks is the domestic landscape in the US and Iran.
Mr Biden is facing a Congress that has bipartisan support against diplomacy with Iran and he will be unlikely to sell a “less for less” deal, essentially a deal where Iran gives up less and the US asks for less, he said.
Mr Raisi has to deal with a struggling economy, water and electricity shortages, the coronavirus pandemic, frequent protests, political infighting and the question of eventual succession of the supreme leader.
Mr Raisi's administration needs success in the talks not just for himself but for the conservative factions in Iran, Mr Nasr said.
For the past eight years, Iran's conservative and hardline groups have been saying they could do better than the moderates and the Rouhani administration, now they need to deliver, he said.
Unlike other authoritarian governments, Iran’s government does face pushback from its people and if the new government cannot deliver on their promises, “they are going to face a very unhappy disgruntled population and the cost of managing that will be high”, he said.
Mr Nasr said the talks are likely to go on for another two or three rounds until March 2022. Although a deal is unlikely in that time frame, there is a possibility of a breather. The US could give Iran some leeway to sell more oil and get access to funds in exchange for a halt to the ramping up its nuclear programme, he said.
Ultimately, a deal can only be reached through building up trust and both sides showing that they can abide by the terms, he said.
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
SPEC%20SHEET
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MATCH DETAILS
Juventus 2 (Bonucci 36, Ronaldo 90 6)
Genoa 1 (Kouame 40)
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Director: Scott Cooper
Starring: Jeremy Allen White, Odessa Young, Jeremy Strong
Rating: 4/5
25-MAN SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Francis Uzoho, Ikechukwu Ezenwa, Daniel Akpeyi
Defenders: Olaoluwa Aina, Abdullahi Shehu, Chidozie Awaziem, William Ekong, Leon Balogun, Kenneth Omeruo, Jamilu Collins, Semi Ajayi
Midfielders: John Obi Mikel, Wilfred Ndidi, Oghenekaro Etebo, John Ogu
Forwards: Ahmed Musa, Victor Osimhen, Moses Simon, Henry Onyekuru, Odion Ighalo, Alexander Iwobi, Samuel Kalu, Paul Onuachu, Kelechi Iheanacho, Samuel Chukwueze
On Standby: Theophilus Afelokhai, Bryan Idowu, Ikouwem Utin, Mikel Agu, Junior Ajayi, Valentine Ozornwafor
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
More on animal trafficking
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Results
6.30pm: Madjani Stakes Group 2 (PA) Dh97,500 (Dirt) 1,900m, Winner: RB Frynchh Dude, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Mnasek, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Grand Dubai, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m, Winner: Meqdam, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Thegreatcollection, Pat Cosgrave, Doug Watson.
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,900m, Winner: Sanad Libya, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Madkhal, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
Tips from the expert
Dobromir Radichkov, chief data officer at dubizzle and Bayut, offers a few tips for UAE residents looking to earn some cash from pre-loved items.
- Sellers should focus on providing high-quality used goods at attractive prices to buyers.
- It’s important to use clear and appealing photos, with catchy titles and detailed descriptions to capture the attention of prospective buyers.
- Try to advertise a realistic price to attract buyers looking for good deals, especially in the current environment where consumers are significantly more price-sensitive.
- Be creative and look around your home for valuable items that you no longer need but might be useful to others.
Global Fungi Facts
• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
• Only about 160,000 have been officially described leaving around 90% undiscovered
• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
Under 19 World Cup
Group A: India, Japan, New Zealand, Sri Lanka
Group B: Australia, England, Nigeria, West Indies
Group C: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Scotland, Zimbabwe
Group D: Afghanistan, Canada, South Africa, UAE
UAE fixtures
Saturday, January 18, v Canada
Wednesday, January 22, v Afghanistan
Saturday, January 25, v South Africa
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,200 metres
Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Younis Kalbani (trainer)
5.30pm: UAE Arabian Derby (PA) | Prestige | Dh150,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Octave, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round 3 (PA) | Group 3 Dh300,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Harrab, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Ali
6.30pm: Emirates Championship (PA) | Group 1 | Dh1million | 2,200m
Winner: BF Mughader, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (TB) | Group 3 | Dh380,000 | 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) | Conditions | Dh70,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF La’Asae, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
Polarised public
31% in UK say BBC is biased to left-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is biased to right-wing views
19% in UK say BBC is not biased at all
Source: YouGov
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Mubadala World Tennis Championship 2018 schedule
Thursday December 27
Men's quarter-finals
Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung 4pm
Dominic Thiem v Karen Khachanov 6pm
Women's exhibition
Serena Williams v Venus Williams 8pm
Friday December 28
5th place play-off 3pm
Men's semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Anderson/Chung 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Thiem/Khachanov 7pm
Saturday December 29
3rd place play-off 5pm
Men's final 7pm
New UK refugee system
- A new “core protection” for refugees moving from permanent to a more basic, temporary protection
- Shortened leave to remain - refugees will receive 30 months instead of five years
- A longer path to settlement with no indefinite settled status until a refugee has spent 20 years in Britain
- To encourage refugees to integrate the government will encourage them to out of the core protection route wherever possible.
- Under core protection there will be no automatic right to family reunion
- Refugees will have a reduced right to public funds
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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box
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Letstango.com
Started: June 2013
Founder: Alex Tchablakian
Based: Dubai
Industry: e-commerce
Initial investment: Dh10 million
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 300,000 unique customers every month
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2-litre%204-cylinder%20petrol%20(V%20Class)%3B%20electric%20motor%20with%2060kW%20or%2090kW%20powerpack%20(EQV)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20233hp%20(V%20Class%2C%20best%20option)%3B%20204hp%20(EQV%2C%20best%20option)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20350Nm%20(V%20Class%2C%20best%20option)%3B%20TBA%20(EQV)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMid-2024%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ETBA%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight Championship AJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
2018 ICC World Twenty20 Asian Western Sub Regional Qualifier
Event info: The tournament in Kuwait is the first phase of the qualifying process for sides from Asia for the 2020 World T20 in Australia. The UAE must finish within the top three teams out of the six at the competition to advance to the Asia regional finals. Success at regional finals would mean progression to the World T20 Qualifier.
Teams: UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Maldives, Qatar
Friday fixtures: 9.30am (UAE time) - Kuwait v Maldives, Qatar v UAE; 3pm - Saudi Arabia v Bahrain
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
NBA Finals results
Game 1: Warriors 124, Cavaliers 114
Game 2: Warriors 122, Cavaliers 103
Game 3: Cavaliers 102, Warriors 110
Game 4: In Cleveland, Sunday (Monday morning UAE)
Playing records of the top 10 in 2017
How many games the top 10 have undertaken in the 2017 ATP season
1. Rafael Nadal 58 (49-9)
2. Andy Murray 35 (25-10)
3. Roger Federer 38 (35-3)
4. Stan Wawrinka 37 (26-11)
5. Novak Djokovic 40 (32-8)
6. Alexander Zverev 60 (46-14)
7. Marin Cilic 43 (29-14)
8. Dominic Thiem 60 (41-19)
9. Grigor Dimitrov 48 (34-14)
10. Kei Nishikori 43 (30-13)
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Brief scores:
Toss: Kerala Knights, opted to fielf
Pakhtoons 109-5 (10 ov)
Fletcher 32; Lamichhane 3-17
Kerala Knights 110-2 (7.5 ov)
Morgan 46 not out, Stirling 40
The Travel Diaries of Albert Einstein The Far East, Palestine, and Spain, 1922 – 1923
Editor Ze’ev Rosenkranz
Princeton
Match info
UAE v Bolivia, Friday, 6.25pm, Maktoum bin Rashid Stadium, Dubai
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MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
