One of Lebanon’s worst episodes of violence since the end of the civil war is unlikely to topple the government or even stoke wide-scale civil unrest, analysts have told The National.
Seven people were killed in fighting fuelled by rising tension over the Beirut blast probe.
The Iran-backed Hezbollah has accused its political rival, the Christian Lebanese Forces (LF) party, of firing at “peaceful demonstrators” who took to the streets last week to demand the dismissal of the judge leading the investigation into the port explosion.
The LF denies the accusations, arguing that fighting broke out between Hezbollah loyalists and residents after protesters stormed the area that separated Muslim and Christian neighbourhoods during Lebanon’s 15-year civil war.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah gave a warning on Monday that the country was facing a “dangerous and critical new stage” while boasting that his party commanded a strong force of 100,000 fighters.
“Don't miscalculate. Sit quietly and get your act together,” Nasrallah said in a fiery speech, addressing LF chief Samir Geagea. But Mr Nasrallah said Hezbollah would not be lured into a domestic conflict.
His message, analysts say, is multifaceted.
“Hezbollah is saying 'we don’t want to be involved in a domestic conflict but we’re strong and ready',” Ibrahim Bayram, an expert in the party’s affairs, told The National.
That said, Hezbollah and its Shiite ally, the Amal movement led by parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, are unlikely to concede when it comes to replacing Judge Tarek Bitar, Mr Bayram said.
Nasrallah has accused Mr Bitar and the US of politicising the probe after the judge issued arrest warrants for former public works minister Youssef Finanous, a Hezbollah ally, and ex-finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil, a member of Mr Berri’s parliamentary bloc and the target of US sanctions.
Both Mr Hassan Khalil and Mr Finanous, along with ex-prime minister Hassan Diab and two former ministers, have snubbed Mr Bitar’s summons, arguing he had no constitutional authority to prosecute them.
Historic economic crisis
All five officials have been charged with criminal negligence in connection with the blast that killed more than 214 people and forced Mr Diab’s resignation, leaving the country without a functioning government for more than a year. The political vacuum accelerated Lebanon's financial meltdown, which the World Bank says ranks in the top three economic crises since the 1850s.
Mr Bayram said the latest tension over the probe was unlikely to topple the government of prime minister Najib Mikati given the country’s economic and financial woes.
“The risk of miscalculation, however, is real against the backdrop of tensions between Tehran and the US over Iran’s nuclear programme," he said.
Mr Mikati has yet to schedule a Cabinet meeting. Ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and Amal have threatened to boycott coming sessions if the Cabinet fails to block Mr Bitar from prosecuting senior officials. Hezbollah and its allies say political officials should be tried before a special body that comprises senior judges and politicians.
Mr Bayram said the Cabinet was unlikely to meet before a compromise deal was reached.
As of Tuesday morning, Mr Mikati had yet to decide on the timing of the Cabinet’s coming session, a source close to the prime minister told The National. Such a meeting would take place when political tension subsides, the source said.
Reforms stall
Though tension is likely to be wholly contained in the near future, the renewed political bickering deals a major blow for the government’s credibility and its commitment to enacting reforms, Mr Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Centre said.
The international community has been pressuring the government into enacting reforms in exchange for financial aid and demanding open elections in the spring, as well as an independent investigation in the port blast.
“The spotlight is now back on Hezbollah and its arsenal of weapons rather than the government’s reform programme and the investigation into the Beirut blast,” Mr Hage Ali said.
The confrontation was no longer between the ruling class and opposition groups but rather between Hezbollah and the LF, he said.
“It remains to be seen whether the LF gains from this confrontation by polarising Christian voters ahead of the upcoming elections,” he said.
The spotlight is now back on Hezbollah and its arsenal of weapons
Mohanad Haj Ali
Mr Bayram said continuing tension between the LF and Hezbollah was likely to weigh on President Michel Aoun, Hezbollah’s Christian ally.
Mr Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil, the leader of largest Christian parliamentary bloc and a staunch Hezbollah ally, has accused his Mr Geagea of stoking civil strife.
PREMIER LEAGUE FIXTURES
All kick-off times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Saturday
Liverpool v Manchester United - 3.30pm
Burnley v West Ham United - 6pm
Crystal Palace v Chelsea - 6pm
Manchester City v Stoke City - 6pm
Swansea City v Huddersfield Town - 6pm
Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth - 6pm
Watford v Arsenal - 8.30pm
Sunday
Brighton and Hove Albion v Everton - 4.30pm
Southampton v Newcastle United - 7pm
Monday
Leicester City v West Bromwich Albion - 11pm
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3ECompany%3A%20Zywa%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202021%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Nuha%20Hashem%20and%20Alok%20Kumar%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20UAE%3Cbr%3EIndustry%3A%20FinTech%3Cbr%3EFunding%20size%3A%20%243m%3Cbr%3ECompany%20valuation%3A%20%2430m%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
Company%C2%A0profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Eamana%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Karim%20Farra%20and%20Ziad%20Aboujeb%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERegulator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDFSA%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinancial%20services%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E85%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESelf-funded%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Milestones on the road to union
1970
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
The biog
Name: Dhabia Khalifa AlQubaisi
Age: 23
How she spends spare time: Playing with cats at the clinic and feeding them
Inspiration: My father. He’s a hard working man who has been through a lot to provide us with everything we need
Favourite book: Attitude, emotions and the psychology of cats by Dr Nicholes Dodman
Favourit film: 101 Dalmatians - it remind me of my childhood and began my love of dogs
Word of advice: By being patient, good things will come and by staying positive you’ll have the will to continue to love what you're doing
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
LIVING IN...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EEngine%3A%204.4-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20653hp%20at%205%2C400rpm%0D%3Cbr%3ETorque%3A%20800Nm%20at%201%2C600-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3ETransmission%3A%208-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E0-100kph%20in%204.3sec%0D%3Cbr%3ETop%20speed%20250kph%0D%3Cbr%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20NA%0D%3Cbr%3EOn%20sale%3A%20Q2%202023%0D%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh750%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
BRIGHTON 0
MANCHESTER UNITED 3
McTominay 44'
Mata 73'
Pogba 80'
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Results
2.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Mezmar, Adam McLean (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer).
3pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 2,000m; Winner: AF Ajwad, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.
3.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Gold Silver, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel.
4pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 1,000m; Winner: Atrash, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez.
4.30pm: Gulf Cup Prestige (PA) Dh150,000 1,700m; Winner: AF Momtaz, Saif Al Balushi, Musabah Al Muhairi.
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 1,200m; Winner: Al Mushtashar, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 268hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 380Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: CVT auto
Fuel consumption: 9.5L/100km
On sale: now
Price: from Dh195,000
