Increase in sectarianism will lead to more bloodshed in Lebanon



The streets of the neighbourhood of Bir Hassan shook as explosions, reportedly caused by suicide bombers using a motorcycle bomb and a stolen BMW struck the Iranian cultural centre. Eleven people were killed in the blasts last week.

The group claiming responsibility was Lebanon’s Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an organisation associated with Al Qaeda. While these are hardly Beirut’s first bombs related to the Syrian war, it is increasingly clear that the bloody conflict will have a more active Lebanese front. Most of all, the blasts showcase that radical actors on both sides are reaping the benefits of this development.

Jabhat Al Nusra, Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isil, which Al Qaeda disaffiliated from), and the Abdullah Azzam Brigades have all made efforts to increase their campaign against the Shia Islamist group Hizbollah and their Iranian backers. As a result, since the start of this year, attacks targeting mainly Shia areas have killed many civilians.

It was no mistake the Iranian cultural centre was targeted by the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, the same group that claimed responsibility for the double suicide bombing against the Iranian embassy in November. The message is clear: Iran and Hizbollah will be hit in the perceived centres of their power. Striking targets associated with Iran, Hizbollah’s state sponsor, underlines that these groups wish to show that Hizbollah cannot even project power in its own bastions.

Complex operations, such as using double suicide bombings, are the heralded strategy. When held up to Hizbollah’s increased security and intelligence measures, the likely hope by Sunni jihadi elements would be to strike fear into Hizbollah’s establishment and in average supporters on the ground.

The Abdullah Azzam Brigades responded by claiming their most recent bombing was part of an effort to get Hizbollah to withdraw its forces from Syria and to free its prisoners in Lebanese jails. Yet this campaign has done little to disengage Hizbollah or Iran from their intervention in Syria. If anything, it may be aiding Hizbollah’s narratives for continuing the war. Not only did Hizbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah state on February 16 that Hizbollah’s forces would remain in the country, he said that Al Qaeda-type groups “would have come sooner or later regardless of our involvement in Syria”.

It would be easy to assume that attacks between Sunni Salafi jihadis and Hizbollah are simple tit-for-tat operations spilling into Lebanon. Instead, they demonstrate larger sectarian currents, which play to the strengths of both the Sunni Salafi jihadis and Hizbollah.

Hizbollah has only stirred the pot and issued what could be described as self-fulfilling prophecies. Mr Nasrallah used a well-known fact to his organisation’s benefit: many Sunni Salafi jihadi organisations targeting Hizbollah are bent on destroying Shi’ism. Thus, Hizbollah can use the ravages of future car bombings as increased leverage among Lebanese Shia. To feel safe, Shia will, like it or not, be forced to back Hizbollah. Despite Mr Nasrallah’s insistence that his group is not emphasising sectarian messages, the undercurrent of his rhetorical strategy is sectarian.

Highlighting the increasingly sectarian rhetoric on both sides, the Abdullah Azzam Brigade’s unit that has carried out bombings was named after Husayn bin Ali, an important historical figure for Sunnis and Shia. For Shia Muslims Husayn was the third Imam, grandson of the Prophet Mohammed and a main historical figure in the formation of Shi’ism. Shia Islamist foreign fighters in Syria wear headbands with “O Husayn” into battle and accuse their enemies of being “Nawasib” or haters of the family of the Prophet Mohammed.

In the words of jihadi specialist Aaron Zelin, “the conflict is viewed as existential by both sides.” By naming their unit after Husayn, the Sunni Salafi jihadis are trying to “take Husayn back”. Neither side wants to lose the current battle; they are far less willing to cede their history.

As sectarian tempo surges, it is likely there will come a point when a more indiscriminate and potentially devastating bombing campaign is launched. Hizbollah’s continued presence in Syria is feeding the reasons for the bombing campaign now, but as radical sectarian themes take firmer hold, bombing targets due to their being “Shia” as opposed to “Hizbollah” may become the norm. Nevertheless, this trajectory actually aids Hizbollah.

There is a strange convergence of interest among Hizbollah and Al Qaeda-type organisations. The latter’s bombing campaigns are another way to show that they, not more moderate rebel organisations, are taking the fight to the heart of a hated enemy. The actors who present the most victories gain the most followers, funds and power.

Hizbollah has sought to brand all Syrian rebels as little more than Al Qaeda. With more bombings, this narrative will continue to gain steam. The narrative also adds to Sunni Salafi jihadi organisations since it builds a mystique for them. Despite Hizbollah’s Islamist radicalism, it can present itself as more moderate, thus shifting the “Overton Window” – the range of ideas the public will accept – in its favour.

Phillip Smyth is a researcher at the University of Maryland. He focuses on Lebanon and Syria and specialises in Shia militias in Syria

On Twitter: PhillipSmyth

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Selma Abdelhamid, the group's moderator, offers her guide to guide the cost of having a young family:

• Buy second hand stuff

 They grow so fast. Don't get a second hand car seat though, unless you 100 per cent know it's not expired and hasn't been in an accident.

• Get a health card and vaccinate your child for free at government health centres

 Ms Ma says she discovered this after spending thousands on vaccinations at private clinics.

• Join mum and baby coffee mornings provided by clinics, babysitting companies or nurseries.

Before joining baby classes ask for a free trial session. This way you will know if it's for you or not. You'll be surprised how great some classes are and how bad others are.

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Take the food with you in reusable pouches or jars. You'll save a fortune and you'll know exactly what you're feeding your child.

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Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction

Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.

Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.

Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.

Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.

Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.

What are the guidelines?

Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.

Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.

Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.

Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.

Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.

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Install an air filter in your home.

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Dubai Sports City Eagles 8 Dubai Exiles 85

Eagles
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Exiles
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Cons: Gerber 7
Pens: Gerber 3

Man of the match: Tomas Sackmann (Exiles)

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Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district

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His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes

Favourite hobby: Football

Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk