Inaction risks instability in a post-Assad Syria



Events around Syria's borders have created new hope this week, in some quarters at least, that foreign intervention to end Syria's agony may be drawing near.

In fact, the latest developments fall far short of creating the necessary conditions for decisive action by outsiders. But they do tell us that the 21 million Syrians will not be trapped in this nightmare, now 19 months old and getting worse, indefinitely.

Last week a few Syrian army mortar rounds struck a Turkish village, killing five, and Nato's top official Anders Fogh Rasmussen warned quickly and bluntly that the alliance deems an attack on any member, including Turkey, to be an attack upon all.

This conjured up visions of US air power smashing President Bashar Al Assad's military, thereby dooming his regime. But Mr Rasmussen, as Nato's secretary-general, is a bureaucrat, not a decision-maker. The idea of US military action in Syria remains hopelessly improbable.

Well, then, what about Turkey? On Wednesday, Turkish fighters intercepted a Syrian Air jetliner overflying Turkey en route from Moscow to Damascus, forced it to land, and confiscated some cargo. Also, Ankara allows the Free Syrian Army a presence in border areas. But none of that signifies that Turkey is anywhere near prepared for significant military action, alone or with others.

Nor can the 150 US soldiers sent to Jordan this week be seen as the vanguard of an imagined liberation. These "planners" no doubt include intelligence operatives, but the group's avowed first mission - helping Jordan cope with 100,000 refugees (and more arriving daily) - is plainly necessary. Indeed Syria's neighbours, like bigger powers farther away, are now most concerned not with stopping Syria's tumult, but with confining it there.

The combat balance does appear to be tipping, slowly, against the regime. But what comes after? The FSA has no real platform nor even much coherence as a fighting force. At the political level, "the opposition" looks like a mere gaggle of squabbling opportunists. Foreign extremists are said to be arriving in alarming numbers. This political vacuum helps explain why the US and others have been so stingy in feeding the FSA serious weaponry: who can say who would control it?

Nor is this potential chaos limited to Syria. The regime's proxies and tools, notably Hizbollah and certain Kurdish elements, cannot save the Assads, but can and may export Syria's war to neighbouring countries with fragile ethnic and sectarian balances.

The world's inaction on Syria may have been inevitable, but it certainly has not helped.

WWE TLC results

Asuka won the SmackDown Women's title in a TLC triple threat with Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair

Dean Ambrose won the Intercontinental title against Seth Rollins

Daniel Bryan retained the WWE World Heavyweight Championship against AJ Styles

Ronda Rousey retained the Raw Women's Championship against Nia Jax

Rey Mysterio beat Randy Orton in a chairs match

Finn Balor defeated Drew McIntyre

Natalya beat Ruby Riott in a tables match

Braun Strowman beat Baron Corbin in a TLC match

Sheamus and Cesaro retained the SmackDown Tag Titles against The Usos and New Day

R-Truth and Carmella won the Mixed Match Challenge by beating Jinder Mahal and Alicia Fox

Sun jukebox

Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)

This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.

Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)

The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.

Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)

Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.

Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)

Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.

Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)

An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.

Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)

Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.

If you go

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes. Portland is a 260 km drive from Seattle and Emirates offers codeshare flights to Portland with its partner Alaska Airlines.

The car

Hertz (www.hertz.ae) offers compact car rental from about $300 per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.

Parks and accommodation

For information on Crater Lake National Park, visit www.nps.gov/crla/index.htm . Because of the altitude, large parts of the park are closed in winter due to snow. While the park’s summer season is May 22-October 31, typically, the full loop of the Rim Drive is only possible from late July until the end of October. Entry costs $25 per car for a day. For accommodation, see www.travelcraterlake.com. For information on Umpqua Hot Springs, see www.fs.usda.gov and https://soakoregon.com/umpqua-hot-springs/. For Bend, see https://www.visitbend.com/.

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

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A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

Results

5pm Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m

Winner No Riesgo Al Maury, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)

5.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m

Winner Marwa W’Rsan, Sam Hitchcott, Jaci Wickham.

6pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m

Winner Dahess D’Arabie, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi.

6.30pm Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m

Winner Safin Al Reef, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi.

7pm Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 2,200m

Winner Thulbaseera Al Jasra, Shakir Al Balushi, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami.

7.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh 80,000 2,200m

Winner Autumn Pride, Szczepan Mazur, Helal Al Alawi.

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia