Plummeting fertility rates mean the populations of more than three quarters of the world’s countries could shrink by 2050, posing multiple threats to health, the environment and economies, according to a new study.
By 2050, 155 of 204 countries and territories will fall below the population replacement rate, known as the total fertility rate, of 2.1 children per woman.
And by 2100, when more than half of live births are expected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa, just six out of 204 countries and territories will have fertility rates capable of sustaining their populations.
The authors of the study, published in The Lancet, warned the world is approaching a “low-fertility future”, with differing fertility rates set to create a “demographically divided world”.
In 2021, 29 per cent of the world’s babies were born in sub-Saharan Africa – a percentage predicted to rise to 54 per cent by 2100.
Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author and lead research scientist in the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s school of medicine, said the implications of the change were “immense”.
“These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies,” she said.
“Global recognition of the challenges around migration and global aid networks are going to be all the more critical when there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth and as sub-Saharan Africa’s baby boom continues apace.”
By 2050, Kuwait is predicted to have one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, at just 1.07 births per woman. The lowest fertility rate overall is predicted to be South Korea, at just 0.82 children per woman.
Niger is expected to have the highest, at 5.15. Afghanistan, the only other country in the Middle East and North Africa predicted to be among the world’s top 10 most fertile, is expected to have a fertility rate of 3.34.
By 2100, 13 countries, including Saudi Arabia, are predicted to have fertility rates that fall below one. Bhutan is predicted to have the lowest overall fertility rate at 0.69.
The highest is tipped to be Samoa, with a fertility rate of 2.57. Israel and Egypt will also have among the world’s top 10 highest rates, at 2.09 and 2.05 births, respectively.
The global total fertility rate has more than halved over the past 70 years, from about five in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
But the rate varies, depending on the country and region.
In some countries it is much less, such as South Korea and Serbia, where the rate is less than 1.1. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, it is nearly twice the global average of four in 2021.
According to a study released in 2020, the UAE has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, with high living costs and a growing focus on building careers over starting families contributing to a decades-long decline.
The new research shows that Chad has the world’s highest rate, at seven births per woman. Global fertility is predicted to fall further in the coming decades, reaching 1.8 in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100, which is well below the replacement level.
“In many ways, tumbling fertility rates are a success story, reflecting not only better, easily available contraception but also many women choosing to delay or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment,” said senior author Prof Stein Vollset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
Nevertheless, the declines mean the world is facing “staggering social change through the 21st century”, simultaneously tackling a “baby boom” in some countries and a “baby bust” in others, he said.
World population hits 8 billion – in pictures
“As most of the world contends with the serious challenges to the economic growth of a shrinking workforce and how to care for and pay for ageing populations, many of the most resource-limited countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be grappling with how to support the youngest, fastest-growing population on the planet in some of the most politically and economically unstable, heat-stressed and health system-strained places on Earth,” added Prof Vollset.
Obesity, poor diet, exposure to harmful environmental toxins and overuse of medications are thought to have all contributed to a rapid decline in sperm rates since the 1970s.
Normal sperm count ranges from 15 million to 200 million sperm per millilitre of semen, with the global average dropping from about 104 million in 1973 to 49 million in 2019.
Research published by the University of Jerusalem's Hadassah Braun School of Public Health found the rate of decline accelerated in the 21st century.
Profile of RentSher
Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE
Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi
Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE
Sector: Online rental marketplace
Size: 40 employees
Investment: $2 million
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Timeline
2012-2015
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
November 2025
180 Petrofac employees laid off in the UAE
More on animal trafficking
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Jurassic%20Park
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Jeff Buckley: From Hallelujah To The Last Goodbye
By Dave Lory with Jim Irvin
Kanguva
Director: Siva
Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Wydad 2 Urawa 3
Wydad Nahiri 21’, Hajhouj 90'
Urawa Antonio 18’, 60’, Kashiwagi 26’
ALRAWABI%20SCHOOL%20FOR%20GIRLS
%3Cp%3ECreator%3A%20Tima%20Shomali%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%C2%A0Tara%20Abboud%2C%C2%A0Kira%20Yaghnam%2C%20Tara%20Atalla%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
DUBAI CARNIVAL RESULTS
6.30pm Handicap US$135,000 (Turf) 2,410m
Winner Dubai Future, Harry Bentley (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm UAE 1000 Guineas Listed $250,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner Dubai Love, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
7.40pm Dubai Dash Listed $175,000 (T) 1,000m
Winner: Equilateral, James Doyle, Charles Hills.
8.15pm Al Bastakiya Trial Conditions $100,000 (D) 1.900m
Winner Laser Show, Kevin Stott, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Al Fahidi Fort Group Two $250,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Glorious Journey, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby.
9.25pm Handicap $135,000 (D) 2,000m
Winner George Villiers, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
The biog
Name: Sari Al Zubaidi
Occupation: co-founder of Cafe di Rosati
Age: 42
Marital status: single
Favourite drink: drip coffee V60
Favourite destination: Bali, Indonesia
Favourite book: 100 Years of Solitude
The past winners
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2011 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2012 - Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2013 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2015 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 - Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
