Yemen’s armed groups should be integrated into a national army in order to rebuild the country’s security apparatus, the adviser to the head of the country's presidential council told The National.
”A state cannot be created while militia roam free. Militias do not build nations,” Yaseen Makkawi said in an exclusive interview on the sidelines of the first Yemen International Forum in Stockholm.
The three-day event organised by the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies and the Swedish government is being attended by Yemeni politicians, legal experts and prominent members of civil society as well as the UN and US special envoys and a number of representatives from the international community and finance officials linked to the Houthi rebels.
The meeting is being held amid the longest nationwide truce since civil war broke out in late 2014 when the Iran-backed rebels overran the capital, Sanaa, forcing the government to flee south and later into exile in Saudi Arabia.
Nearly eight years later, the rebels control most of the north, while the government, backed by the army and an array of militias, holds the south.
The conflict has forced millions of Yemenis to leave their homes and left 70 per cent of the population reliant on aid to survive in what the UN has called the world's biggest humanitarian crisis.
Mr Makkawi said the eight-member presidential council, which replaced former president Abdrabu Mansur Hadi in April following intra-Yemeni talks hosted by Saudi Arabia, is up against “complex challenges”. These include creating a military front that prioritises national interests “in the north and in the south”, he said.
“The security situation in Yemen should be rooted in its national identity through power-sharing,” said Mr Makkawi, who was also adviser to Mr Hadi
“We need a true and genuine national army that has loyalty to all the country’s governorates — without militias — within a decentralised, Federal system,“ he said.
The Houthis‘ presence in Sanaa as an armed group and their position of power present “a real dilemma“, Mr Makkawi said.
He conceded that the group could play a political role, “so long as they do not possess weapons”, adding that he feared the emergence of a government like Lebanon's in which the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, the country's only armed group outside the military, holds considerable sway over politics.
”What is preventing Lebanon from returning to its former glory? It’s the weaponisation of decision-making, and having a veto power through arms,” he said.
In closed sessions at the forum on Saturday, experts discussed ways to integrate fighters into a national security apparatus or civilian life. The presence of child soldiers and the number of armed state and non-state actors, thought to be in the millions, are major challenges to establishing such a programme, they said.
Mr Makkawi believes finding common ground is imperative in this juncture, as the country enters the third month of the UN-brokered truce that has largely held despite reports of violations by the warring sides.
”It is time to talk about the commonalities among Yemenis, and that is the fact that the country is being destroyed and is in the last stages of destruction. It is time to rebuild it by reshuffling our cards on the road to rebuilding institutions," he said.
“Civilians are being starved and killed. The presidential council needs to look to the future - and give Yemenis hope for their own future.”
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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