Gulf nations face pressure from the Muslim Brotherhood



Gulf states must cooperate to face down the threat posed by the Muslim Brotherhood

UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan last week made a statement to the effect that Gulf states must cooperate to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from plotting to undermine regional governments.

But does this Emirati wish, asked Kuwaiti writer Shamlan Youssef Al Essa in the UAE-based paper Al Ittihad, stand a chance of coming true? What is the nature of this prospective cooperation? And how can the influence of the Brotherhood be countered?

To be sure, the Muslim Brotherhood was given a push by the Arab Spring uprisings in several countries, notably Jordan, Morocco and Kuwait.

But the question is: what are the hurdles to the call from Sheikh Abdullah?

The security and intelligence cooperation is already on, but the source of the Brotherhood's threat is unknown to the Gulf states, the writer remarked.

This organisation has a long experience in underground political activity that has spanned more than 80 years. Egypt's intelligence, as powerful as it has been, could not prevent their rise to power, and their attempts to extend their reach to other Arab countries.

Gulf sates did not hesitant in backing Bahrain when Manama faced serious challenges from the opposition, but they stepped in because foreign powers, particularly Iran, were involved, according to the writer.

The history of the Gulf and the Brotherhood is a long and thorny one. It was the Gulf states - especially Kuwait and Saudi Arabia - that hosted the Islamist organisation when Egypt's former president, Gamal Abdel Nasser, was hunting them down following their 1954 attempt to assassinate him.

The Brotherhood-inspired Islamic Constitutional Movement is currently Kuwait's most powerful party. They have taken over most of the ministries, and have hit out at strong political rivals.

And although the government has entered a battle against the opposition, including the Brotherhood, it is unlikely that the latter will falter. So how could Kuwait help the UAE fight the Brotherhood when it is unable to do so at home? the writer wrote.

Saudi Arabia is overtly antagonistic towards the Brotherhood, and surely will back the UAE should a Brotherhood threat arise.

Bahrain and Oman will stand by the UAE because the Brotherhood in is weak there.

Qatar, which backed the Arab Spring in Libya, Egypt and now in Syria, will remain silent due to its strong ties with the Brotherhood, and the absence of a strong Brotherhood inside Qatar.

"The Brotherhood will surely try to seek power in the Gulf, and therefore, the Gulf States are required to quickly introduce political reforms because the West, mainly the US, wants these states to carry out the necessary reforms to avert any internal turmoil," concluded the writer.

Twenty months on, no end in sight in Syria

There is no shortage of disagreement about the Syrian crisis and ways to deal with it, not only among the ideologically and politically fragmented opposition, but also among regional and international countries that are involved in this issue, opined the London-based daily Al Quds Al Arabi in its lead editorial on Monday.

"But the one issue that everyone seems to agree on is that no foreseeable end could be detected on the horizon," said the paper.

The most important development in Syria is two-fold: first, the struggle can no longer be called a revolution as it is progressively turning into an armed confrontation. Second, the flames of the Syrian conflict have indeed spilt into neighbouring countries, especially into Turkey, and are expected to reach Jordan at a later stage.

On the one hand, the Assad regime's decision to wage a long and fierce war against its own people has indeed exhausted its fighting capabilities and weakened its control over large portions of the land. It wouldn't have lasted so long if it weren't for the support of Russia, China and Iran.

On the other hand, the Western camp's confusion and indecision about a clear strategy for dealing with the crisis, mainly when it comes to arming the opposition, has contributed to the Assad regime's resistance. Although some may argue that it also prevented a regional war.

Some still want Egypt to go back in time

Egypt is experiencing yet another substantial political bump due to court sentences in the "Camel Incident" and the president's attempt to lay off the attorney general, a decision he was forced to retract later since it falls outside his jurisdiction.

"But the issue isn't limited to that," said Tariq Al Homayed, the editor of the pan-Arab daily Asharq Al Awsat. "The real issue is that there are those who are seeking to take Egypt back to the age of the camel."

This becomes evident when one reviews a recent statement by Yussuf Al Qardawi, the Muslim Brotherhood's highest spiritual reference, who called on pilgrims in Mecca to pray against those he called "the nation's enemies". He also called for the re-prosecution of the officials that were acquitted from responsibility in the camel incident last year.

"The situation is clearly chaotic. This proves a continued desire to dismantle the concept of state, laws and regulations and replace them with 'spiritual' powers that transcend the powers of state and law, especially that Al Qardawi isn't Egypt's mufti."

The writer added: "Talk about state, law and institutions becomes void when these concepts are marginalised and destroyed through political positions shrouded in religious rhetoric."

* Digest compiled by The Translation Desk

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

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