AI chips: The nuclear arms race of the 21st century, says Vinod Dham


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The global race for dominance in artificial intelligence is drawing parallels to the nuclear arms race of the 20th century, says Vinod Dham, founder of IndoUS Venture Partners and a pioneer in the semiconductor industry.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Raisina Middle East, Mr Dham compared the importance of AI chips to the "nuclear weapons of the 1940s and 1950s".

“If you give away the recipe for building a bomb to everybody, then there'll be chaos in the world,” adding that the US was pursuing an appropriate policy of working in partnership with “trusted nations”.

“One thing that America has done that will make it very difficult for the rest of the world to replicate. There's some fundamental complex machinery needed to build these chips. And those machines are only being made by the US or companies it controls.”

His comments came as news emerged this week about DeepSeek's advancements in AI-driven chip design. Some experts say these advances could disrupt the current dominance of US-based companies like Nvidia in the graphics processing unit market.

It has also called into question investment strategies in the booming AI sector, especially as China-based DeepSeek was able to train its large language model with significantly less budget and in less time.

But as much as the US would like to keep an advantage in the sector, that will not be possible, he says, as other nations are figuring AI out.

In a wide ranging discussion, Mr Dham, who is sometimes referred to as the father of the Pentium chip because of his role in the development of Intel’s microprocessor, said the coronavirus pandemic five years ago acted as a springboard for the current AI-driven era.

“During the pandemic, everything shut down, and people had to stay home. Suddenly, there was a need for more computers. A huge demand and peak, which nobody had anticipated. It looked like a shortage, but it was really a shortage because demand went up and not because there was some issue with the supply chain.

“Subsequently, after the pandemic, it became apparent that AI would become crucial for strategic military use, warfare and weaponry.

“That made countries like the US, which is really at the leading edge, realise that maybe we should not have this technology freely given to everybody in the world, restricting those supplies to the so-called trusted nations that they felt it was okay to give it to. And that's really where we are today.

Mr Dham also reflected on the foundation story of Pentium chips and how pricing and technology has changed.

“When we were building Pentium, these chips were costing us maybe a couple of hundred dollars, $100, $50 to make. We were selling them for $200, $300, $400. The GPUs today, which are a very different type of a processor, cost $40,000 for just one set of chips.

“They are so expensive that an average person cannot buy them and use them at home. It’s a different ballgame than what we played during our time.”

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May 12, 2020: PM and his wife Carrie attend 'work meeting' with at least 17 staff 

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Nov 27, 2020: PM gives speech at leaving party for his staff 

Dec 10, 2020: Staff party held by then-education secretary Gavin Williamson 

Dec 13, 2020: PM and his wife throw a party

Dec 14, 2020: London mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey holds staff event at Conservative Party headquarters 

Dec 15, 2020: PM takes part in a staff quiz 

Dec 18, 2020: Downing Street Christmas party 

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How much of your income do you need to save?

The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.

In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)

Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.

 

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Updated: January 29, 2025, 12:32 PM