Global sales of electric passenger vehicles are expected to increase by nearly a third in 2025, leading an automotive industry that is cautiously optimistic amid economic and political uncertainty, a new study from S&P Global has shown.
Sales of the most popular type of EV are projected to hit 15.1 million next year, which would be about 30 per cent up on this year's estimated 11.6 million, the New York-based ratings agency's mobility unit said on Friday.
That would account for 16.7 per cent of overall global light vehicle sales, which would be an improvement from 13.2 per cent in 2024, it said.
The rise is expected despite concern over a perceived slowdown in demand and EV manufacturers scaling back production plans as governments rethink incentive and subsidy strategies, in addition to infrastructure challenges, analysts at S&P Global said.
China, the world's second-largest economy and biggest EV market, would capture the major chunk of sales with 29.7 per cent, followed by Europe (20.4 per cent) and the US (11.2 per cent). India would only corner 7.5 per cent in 2025, but that would be more than double its share this year.
“Many uncertainties persist regarding the pace of electrification, especially regarding charging infrastructure, grid power, battery supply chains, global sourcing trends, tariff trade barriers, the rate of technological advancements and the necessary level of support from policymakers to facilitate the shift from fossil fuels to electric alternatives,” the analysts said.
Overall global vehicle sales, on the other hand, would inch up by 1.7 per cent annually to about 89.6 million units in 2025, reflecting an across-the-board downgrade underpinned by “cautious recovery growth”, S&P said.
The shift in tone is attributed to the expected policy change by the incoming administration of US president-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened higher tariffs, coupled with other factors, especially interest rates, trade flows, sourcing and EV adoption rates. These are expected to have a “significant” impact on vehicle demand, it said.
Notably, manufacturers remain focused on managing production and inventory levels in response to regional demand patterns, which include slower growth in key markets, in some cases related to slower EV adoption rates, S&P said.
For 2024, global vehicle sales are expected to hit 88.2 million units, also a tepid a 1.7 per cent increase from 2023, supported by continuing inventory restocking throughout the year as supply chains become more stable.
“The forecast outlook incorporates several factors, including improved supply, tariff impacts, still-high interest rates, affordability challenges, elevated new vehicle prices, uneven consumer confidence, energy price and supply concerns, risks in auto lending and the challenges of electrification,” the analysts said.
“In the US, president-elect Donald Trump is expected to hit the ground running in 2025 with a range of policy priorities, including universal tariffs, deregulation and wavering [battery electric vehicle] support.”
EV sales continue to grow, but have slowed down, forcing manufacturers to rethink their strategies. Elon Musk's Tesla Motors, the world's biggest EV maker, has been forced to slash its prices several times to prop up demand.
It also remains uncertain how Mr Trump's tariffs, if they come to fruition, will affect EV appetite in the world's biggest economy that holds big potential for Chinese-made cars.
The EU imposed duties on EVs imported from China from October, which also raises the spectre of another trade war.
“2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new US administration adds fresh uncertainty from day one,” said Colin Couchman, an executive director at S&P Global Mobility.
“A key concern is how 'natural' EV demand fares as governments rethink policy support, especially incentives and subsidies, industrial policy, tariffs and fast evolving [original equipment manufacturer] target setting.”
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
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3) Ederson, Benfica to Manchester City (£35m)
4) Gianluigi Buffon, Parma to Juventus (£33m)
5) Angelo Peruzzi, Inter Milan to Lazio (£15.7m
SPECS
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Ibrahim's play list
Completed an electrical diploma at the Adnoc Technical Institute
Works as a public relations officer with Adnoc
Apart from the piano, he plays the accordion, oud and guitar
His favourite composer is Johann Sebastian Bach
Also enjoys listening to Mozart
Likes all genres of music including Arabic music and jazz
Enjoys rock groups Scorpions and Metallica
Other musicians he likes are Syrian-American pianist Malek Jandali and Lebanese oud player Rabih Abou Khalil
Squad
Ali Kasheif, Salim Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdulrahman, Mohammed Al Attas, Abdullah Ramadan, Zayed Al Ameri (Al Jazira), Mohammed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammed Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Essa, Mohammed Shaker, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah) Walid Abbas, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli), Tariq Ahmed, Jasim Yaqoub (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Muharami (Baniyas)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
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THE SPECS
Engine: six-litre W12 twin-turbo
Transmission: eight-speed dual clutch auto
Power: 626bhp
Torque: 900Nm
Price: Dh940,160 (plus VAT)
On sale: Q1 2020
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Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
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