Will Trump 2.0 policies benefit tech, or only Elon Musk and friends?


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While analysts are predicting significant and far-reaching impacts from Donald Trump's second presidential term, the technology sector is already experiencing the potential effects of the next four years. Mr Trump has made many promises on the campaign trail, including higher tariffs to favour American industry, mass deportation of migrants and the replacement of Obamacare, among others.

However, when it comes to technology, while the recent performance of tech stocks appears promising, there is still a significant amount of uncertainty and cautiousness about the broader sector's prospects. Mr Trump's tech sector backers will be pushing for him to roll back regulations that they view as unfriendly to companies in areas like artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, said Kevin Allison, president of Minerva Technology Policy Advisors, a Washington-based consultancy specialising in technology and geopolitics.

"At the same time, Mr Trump is promising tariffs, which raise costs for businesses and consumers and could disrupt tech supply chains. Mr Trump is also likely to continue or expand on [outgoing President Joe] Biden’s tough-on-China tech policies with support from security hawks in Congress," he tells The National. That, he adds, could drive a further geopolitical split of the tech stack and put other countries under more pressure to choose sides.

Many tech leaders – Tesla and X boss Elon Musk being the most notable – have proactively engaged with Mr Trump, aiming to build influential connections that could help them navigate upcoming policy shifts. Mr Musk's favourite memecoin, Dogecoin, has already doubled in value and has created more crypto millionaires since Mr Trump's victory.

That also led to the creation of a new US government entity, the Department of Government Efficiency, which is to be led by Mr Musk and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who once challenged Mr Trump for the Republican nomination. The entity's mission will be to “dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures and restructure federal agencies”.

That is building up to cautious optimism among tech players, "mixed with strategic engagement and regulatory concerns", says Hani Abuagla, a senior market analyst at broker XTB Mena. "Support from prominent industry figures like Mr Musk suggests a more collaborative approach, potentially aligning administration priorities with tech interests. This may mean less regulatory oversight on innovation, particularly in AI and mergers, which would benefit large tech firms," he says.

On friends and foes

A new Trump administration means another potentially polarising situation. In his first administration, those who ran counter to his policies, most notably China, were unable to do business with the US, which affected profits.

However, closer to home, allies have so far been benefitting. Tech share prices, in particular, have risen considerably: as of Tuesday's close, Tesla Motors' stock has spiked nearly a third since the close on November 5, towing its market cap back to the trillion-dollar level. Google parent Alphabet has risen 7 per cent, Nvidia 6 per cent, Amazon 4.7 per cent and Microsoft 2.8 per cent.

That also resulted in the wealth of the 10 richest people in the world to leap by a record $64 billion, the Bloomberg Billionaires Index showed last Wednesday. Gains in technology wealth led the way: Wednesday's wealth growth was a nearly 39 per cent rise for those in that sector and, as of Tuesday, that has further grown to 43.5 per cent.

Mr Musk was the biggest beneficiary as his wealth has jumped by 51 per cent to $319 billion as of Wednesday. The wealth of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Oracle founder Larry Ellison – also Trump supporters – are up 38.4 per cent and 59.5 per cent at $230 billion and $203 billion, respectively.

"From Brussels to Beijing and Moscow to Silicon Valley, this is not 2016. Mr Trump is no longer an unknown quantity on policy. In addition to his record in office, he and his team have spent the last four years constructing a policy infrastructure," Mohammed Soliman, a director at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, tells The National.

Mr Trump rose to fame as a businessman and billionaire, and though his actual wealth has never been publicly known, Forbes has estimated that, as of November, his net worth is about $5.8 billion. In retrospect, his "I mean business" pitch when he first ran for the White House in 2016 proved to be one of his most popular selling points for the presidency – and seems to have carried him again this year.

That business-friendly pitch "is what he has proven during his first term. The positive consensus [at present] can be seen in tech stocks," Mehow Pospieszalski, chief executive of Wyoming-based FinTech company MatterFi, tells The National. "The pro-Trump mood is even more obvious in the market for cryptocurrencies, where Bitcoin smashed the glass ceiling."

It is worth noting, however, that Mr Trump made a spectacular U-turn when it comes to cryptocurrency: in his first term, he derided Bitcoin and its peers as a "not money", "based on thin air" and something that "can facilitate unlawful behaviour, including drug trade and other illegal activity [sic]", even calling it a "scam" after he left office.

The turning point was when Mr Trump began selling non-fungible tokens of himself as a superhero in December 2022, a month after he declared his intention to run for president again. He raised $8.9 million in the process, which apparently proved to him that crypto can be beneficial. It may have also helped that the vice president-elect, JD Vance, has been known to own Bitcoin since 2021.

Bitcoin, the world's first and biggest cryptocurrency, has surged since Mr Trump's win and is knocking at the unprecedented $90,000 level, having hit about $89,840 earlier on Tuesday, data from CoinMarketCap shows. It has since pulled back to about $87,410 on Wednesday. Mr Trump has promised to take a friendlier approach to digital assets, which has likely won him supporters. The sector would be now "welcomed, with venture capital, deals and tech innovation to grow", Mr Pospieszalski adds.

"Friends and foes will be bracing for a return to Mr Trump’s more transactional style of diplomacy, including on tech and trade. For Europe, Mr Trump’s win is likely to revive concerns about digital sovereignty, particularly if he returns to the confrontational diplomacy that we saw during his first term," Mr Allison says.

AI (de)regulation

For AI, which has exploded over the past couple of years, a second Trump term would continue what he started: the former president issued the country’s first AI executive order in 2019 to kick-start the American AI Initiative. The incoming president is expected to "remove barriers to innovation and promoting AI research and development" to make the US the global AI leader, Joseph Wehbe, chief AI ecosystem builder at the New Jersey-based Daimlas and a contributor to the World Economic Forum, tells The National.

"AI is not policy or regulation-driven, it is intellectually driven. The latest advancements in AI are research-driven. As long as the academia/innovation ecosystem is strengthened and receives funding for research and attracting the best talent in academia and entrepreneurs, America will continue to lead globally with AI," he says.

Mr Trump is expected to take a predominantly hands-off approach to AI regulation, favouring industry self-regulation and minimal government interference to promote innovation and US competitiveness. That may mean his administration is likely to withdraw Mr Biden’s AI executive order and replace it with policies that support AI development, aligning with his deregulatory stance. However, it also remains unclear if he will allow countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to gain more access to American technologies, assuming he wants allies to further pivot away from China.

However, national security concerns are likely to prompt a more targeted approach in specific areas, particularly in defence and military applications, Mr Soliman says, noting that on this front, Mr Trump may prioritise rapid AI advancements, increasing support and funding for defence-focused AI projects and potentially forming partnerships with private companies to accelerate progress.

"While he has noted potential risks associated with powerful AI systems, any regulatory measures are expected to be selective, emphasising voluntary commitments over binding regulations. Competition with China will likely drive this strategy, focusing on US technological leadership with minimal restrictions outside national security and defence applications," he adds.

For now, the new Trump administration will remain unpredictable, as he was in his first stint as president. However, he did stick to a number of his promises, including prioritising American companies and lowering taxes. This gives the technology sector and the markets room to gauge the situation and plan out their strategies moving forward.

"The unpredictable nature of Mr Trump is always in the way he talks. His policies were pretty clear and unwavering, with a significant warm-up time for the market to adjust," Mr Pospieszalski says.

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The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

RESULT

Brazil 2 Croatia 0
Brazil: 
Neymar (69'), Firmino (90' 3)    

EMILY%20IN%20PARIS%3A%20SEASON%203
%3Cp%3ECreated%20by%3A%20Darren%20Star%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Lily%20Collins%2C%20Philippine%20Leroy-Beaulieu%2C%20Ashley%20Park%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202.75%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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A State of Passion

Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi

Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah

Rating: 4/5

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

RESULTS

5pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,400m
Winner: AF Tathoor, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh70,000 1,000m
Winner: Dahawi, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
Winner: Aiz Alawda, Fernando Jara, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 2,000m
Winner: ES Nahawand, Fernando Jara, Mohammed Daggash
7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Winked, Connor Beasley, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7.30pm: Al Ain Mile Group 3 (PA) Dh350,000 1,600m
Winner: Somoud, Connor Beasley, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
8pm: Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Al Jazi, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

THE%20SWIMMERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESally%20El-Hosaini%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENathalie%20Issa%2C%20Manal%20Issa%2C%20Ahmed%20Malek%20and%20Ali%20Suliman%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood

Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.

The five pillars of Islam
What is the FNC?

The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning. 
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval. 
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
 

Spec%20sheet
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDisplay%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204.7%22%20Retina%20HD%2C%201334%20x%20750%2C%20625%20nits%2C%201400%3A1%2C%20True%20Tone%2C%20P3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EChip%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Apple%20A15%20Bionic%2C%206-core%20CPU%2C%204-core%20GPU%2C%2016-core%20Neural%20Engine%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECamera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012MP%2C%20f%2F1.8%2C%205x%20digital%20zoom%2C%20Smart%20HDR%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204K%2B%40%2024%2F30%2F60fps%2C%20full%20HD%2B%40%2030%2F60fps%2C%20HD%2B%40%2030%20fps%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFront%20camera%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7MP%2C%20f%2F2.2%2C%20Smart%20HDR%2C%20Deep%20Fusion%3B%20HD%20video%2B%40%2030fps%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Up%20to%2015%20hours%20video%2C%2050%20hours%20audio%3B%2050%25%20fast%20charge%20in%2030%20minutes%20with%2020W%20charger%3B%20wireless%20charging%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBiometrics%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Touch%20ID%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDurability%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20IP67%2C%20dust%2C%20water%20resistant%20up%20to%201m%20for%2030%20minutes%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1%2C849%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tips for job-seekers
  • Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
  • Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.

David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East

Stamp duty timeline

December 2014: Former UK finance minister George Osbourne reforms stamp duty, replacing the slab system with a blended rate scheme, with the top rate increasing to 12 per cent from 10 per cent:
Up to £125,000 - 0%; £125,000 to £250,000 – 2%; £250,000 to £925,000 – 5%; £925,000 to £1.5m: 10%; Over £1.5m – 12%

April 2016: New 3% surcharge applied to any buy-to-let properties or additional homes purchased.

July 2020: Rishi Sunak unveils SDLT holiday, with no tax to pay on the first £500,000, with buyers saving up to £15,000.

March 2021: Mr Sunak decides the fate of SDLT holiday at his March 3 budget, with expectations he will extend the perk unti June.

April 2021: 2% SDLT surcharge added to property transactions made by overseas buyers.

The%20Roundup
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INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
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UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees

Director: Kaouther Ben Hania

Rating: 4/5

AL%20BOOM
%3Cp%20style%3D%22text-align%3Ajustify%3B%22%3E%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3B%26nbsp%3BDirector%3AAssad%20Al%20Waslati%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%20style%3D%22text-align%3Ajustify%3B%22%3E%0DStarring%3A%20Omar%20Al%20Mulla%2C%20Badr%20Hakami%20and%20Rehab%20Al%20Attar%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EStreaming%20on%3A%20ADtv%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
RACE CARD

5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,200m
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 (PA) Listed Dh230,000 1,600m
6.30pm: HH The President’s Cup (PA) Group 1 Dh2.5million 2,200m
7pm: HH The President’s Cup (TB) Listed Dh380,000 1,400m
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Handicap Dh70,000 1,200m.

MATCH INFO

Real Madrid 2 (Benzema 13', Kroos 28')
Barcelona 1 (Mingueza 60')

Red card: Casemiro (Real Madrid)

Long read

Mageed Yahia, director of WFP in UAE: Coronavirus knows no borders, and neither should the response

Updated: November 15, 2024, 3:00 AM`