With the US presidential election fast approaching, experts say polling firms are facing increased pressure and scrutiny to fine-tune their methods and ensure accuracy. Nick Donaldson / Getty Images
With the US presidential election fast approaching, experts say polling firms are facing increased pressure and scrutiny to fine-tune their methods and ensure accuracy. Nick Donaldson / Getty Images
With the US presidential election fast approaching, experts say polling firms are facing increased pressure and scrutiny to fine-tune their methods and ensure accuracy. Nick Donaldson / Getty Images
With the US presidential election fast approaching, experts say polling firms are facing increased pressure and scrutiny to fine-tune their methods and ensure accuracy. Nick Donaldson / Getty Images

Increasingly inaccurate: how smartphones and paranoia made polling more difficult


Cody Combs
  • English
  • Arabic

As the world witnesses a record number of elections, and with the US Presidential election fast-approaching, polling companies are under unprecedented pressure to find out why recent polls have been off the mark, according to Professor W Joseph Campbell.

“There's a lot of validity to the question about polling accuracy,” said Prof Campbell, a tenured professor at American University and author Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections.

While many point to the 2016 election of Republican Donald Trump, a surprise to many at the time, as one of the first indicators that traditional polling methods were no longer accurate or effective, Prof Campbell said the 2012 election was one of the first inklings of polling problems.

Incumbent US President Barack Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney by almost 4 percentage points.

“That was somewhat higher than the polls were anticipating,” he said, before pivoting to the 2016 race, where many polls indicated that Donald Trump would be defeated by democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

American University Professor W Joseph Campbell says although polls and pollsters are under intense scrutiny, the criticisms they face aren't necessarily new.
American University Professor W Joseph Campbell says although polls and pollsters are under intense scrutiny, the criticisms they face aren't necessarily new.

“She won the popular vote of course, but that blue wall that was supposed to hold for her in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania crumbled, quite unexpectedly compared to the polls at the time,” he said.

For the 2020 election, although many polls predicted a victory for democratic candidate Joe Biden, the margin of victory was not as wide as many of the polls projected.

“The pollsters are looking at all these instances and really trying to grapple with it,” Prof Campbell said. “No one really knows for sure why yet,” he said, referring to recent questions surrounding the accuracy of polling.

Polling postmortem

Although it flew under the radar in most circles, a report issued by the American Association for Public Opinion Research in 2021 sought to identify the potential problems in terms of accuracy with regard to the 2020 US presidential election polling, and for that matter, the 2016 presidential election cycle as well.

“The 2020 polls featured polling error of an unusual magnitude: It was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial contests,” read the report.

That report, in part, determined that there was a potential problem in the form of nonresponse from the US electorate when approached by pollsters before the election.

AAPOR's report also noted that many pollster's may have inadequately accounted for the influx of new voters who had not previously voted in US presidential elections.

“There were many new voters in 2020 and it is unclear whether the proportion of new voters in the polls matched the proportion of actual new voters,” it continued.

The lengthy report, clocking in at more than 100 pages, lists many potential scenarios, but ultimately concludes that nonresponse from voters before the election was likely a top reason for polling inaccuracy, among other factors.

Even that conclusion, however, has some frustrating ambiguity for pollsters seeking a quick fix.

“The primary source of polling error cannot be identified conclusively without knowing how non-respondents and respondents compare,” the report read.

Smartphones proliferate, landlines decline and nobody picks up the phone

The problem of addressing nonresponse from voters who pollsters badly want to speak with, according to Prof Campbell, stretches back several election cycles.

“How do you best reach people,” he said, noting that traditionally, polling had relied on calling landline telephones, which had quickly fallen by the wayside in the last decade.

The proliferation of smartphones, he added, is not necessarily a problem for pollsters, but in that same breath, a potentially bigger problem has come to fruition in that fewer people are actually picking up the phone.

“That limited response really has the potential to skew results,” he said.

Gallup, a prominent US polling and research firm, boasts on its website about its US polls, which include both landline and mobile phone numbers using random digit dialling (RDD) methods, while Quinnipiac University, another prominent polling entity, also boasts RDD along with a mix of mobile phone and landline outreach.

“If there is no answer, we will 'call back' that number. We will call every number where there is no answer at least four times,” read a methodology description from Quinnipiac. “We do call cell phones. This is increasingly important as more than half of the nation only have a cell phone and no landline telephone.”

In some instances, Prof Campbell said that occasionally polling companies and research organisations have begun to incorporate online polling and even text messaging to try to account for societal trends, but cautioned those approaches are not cure-alls to polling woes.

Following various US presidential elections where polls were off the mark, Prof Campbell wrote a book looking at the history of polling methods. Photo: Amazon
Following various US presidential elections where polls were off the mark, Prof Campbell wrote a book looking at the history of polling methods. Photo: Amazon

“Personally, if I got text message from a pollster, I'm inclined not to answer,” he said. “And I think I lot of people feel the same way.”

Another hypothesis in recent years, according to Prof Campbell, has pointed to the increased polarisation of politics, leading to voters overtly deciding not take part in polls amid increased paranoia and distrust in institutions.

Most recently, even President Biden expressed doubt about recent polls during an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulus, echoing distrust in pollsters and the potential for the electorate to not take part in polling.

“George – look, you know polling better than anybody. Do you think polling data is as accurate as it used to be?” he said.

Conversely, Prof Campbell said there is also a theory that conservatives, and in particular, supporters of Trump, might be less likely to take part in polls for various reasons, leading to underrepresentation.

“It's something that pollsters have been discussing for a number of years,” he said. “But again, it remains a hypothesis, it's not proven.”

Recency bias

While it might be tempting to think that inaccurate polling is unique to recent election cycles, Prof Campbell said that notion is simply untrue.

Between 1936 and 2020, he said, there are nine separate cases in US elections where polling has been off the mark.

He said that one of the more prominent polling problems occurred in the lead up to the 1948 US presidential election, where democratic incumbent Harry Truman was projected by various pollsters to lose to the republican challenger Thomas Dewey.

Despite the projections, President Truman emerged victorious, defeating Mr Dewey by 4.5 percentage points.

Inaccurate polls led some to incorrectly project that incumbent democratic President Harry Truman would lose to republican challenger Thomas Dewey in the 1948 US presidential election. Photo: Harry S. Truman Library
Inaccurate polls led some to incorrectly project that incumbent democratic President Harry Truman would lose to republican challenger Thomas Dewey in the 1948 US presidential election. Photo: Harry S. Truman Library

“Polling was still relatively new,” said Prof Campbell, reflecting on the aftermath that caused pollsters to do research into what went wrong.

“Many of the pollsters stopped polling up to two months before that election,” he explained, adding that some of the pollsters did not expect the public's mood to change much given Mr Dewey's apparent popularity at the time.

That moment would be ensconced in the memories of many, with President Truman holding up a copy of a newspaper which prematurely printed that his challenger would be the next president.

Consequently, for the 1952 presidential election, Prof Campbell said some pollsters, perhaps trying to overcorrect for their previous inaccuracies, failed to project republican Dwight Eisenhower's landslide victory over democrat Adlai Stevenson.

“Make no mistake, polling has had some bad patches in the past,” he said. “We're in another patch right now.”

The future of polling

Despite all the difficulty faced by polling organisations when it comes to finding a method to the madness of reaching voters in an accurate way, Prof Campbell says there are reasons for optimism.

“Election polling is just a mere sliver of a multibillion dollar industry,” he said, noting the accuracy of other polling implementations ranging from consumer preference polling to issue-based polling and sophisticated analytics models. “It's not going to just disappear.”

Some pollsters, he said, have had relative success in recruiting panels of respondents with whom they check in on a regular basis, although that approach can also be flawed an labour intensive.

Regardless, he said the important thing is that pollsters and political scientists are not at all in denial about the increasingly inaccurate polls, pointing to AAPOR's 2021 polling report looking at how to increase accuracy going forward, knowing full well the increased scepticism from the general public.

“How many of these kinds of failures can you sustain consecutively and still remain credible?” he said.

Results

5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (Dirt) 1,000m, Winner: Hazeem Al Raed, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)

5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 85,000 (D) 1,000m, Winner: Ghazwan Al Khalediah, Hugo Lebouc, Helal Al Alawi

6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Dinar Al Khalediah, Patrick Cosgrave, Helal Al Alawi.

6.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Faith And Fortune, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.

7pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Only Smoke, Bernardo Pinheiro, Abdallah Al Hammadi.

7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 1,600m, Winner: AF Ramz, Saif Al Balushi, Khalifa Al Neyadi.

8pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 70,000 (D) 2,000m, Winner: AF Mass, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel.

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

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The specs

Engine: 5.2-litre V10

Power: 640hp at 8,000rpm

Torque: 565Nm at 6,500rpm

Transmission: 7-speed dual-clutch auto

Price: From Dh1 million

On sale: Q3 or Q4 2022 

Ferrari 12Cilindri specs

Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12

Power: 819hp

Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm

Price: From Dh1,700,000

Available: Now

How does ToTok work?

The calling app is available to download on Google Play and Apple App Store

To successfully install ToTok, users are asked to enter their phone number and then create a nickname.

The app then gives users the option add their existing phone contacts, allowing them to immediately contact people also using the application by video or voice call or via message.

Users can also invite other contacts to download ToTok to allow them to make contact through the app.

 

The five pillars of Islam
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS

Estijaba – 8001717 –  number to call to request coronavirus testing

Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111

Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre

Emirates airline – 600555555

Etihad Airways – 600555666

Ambulance – 998

Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries

The Details

Article 15
Produced by: Carnival Cinemas, Zee Studios
Directed by: Anubhav Sinha
Starring: Ayushmann Khurrana, Kumud Mishra, Manoj Pahwa, Sayani Gupta, Zeeshan Ayyub
Our rating: 4/5 

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Mental%20health%20support%20in%20the%20UAE
%3Cp%3E%E2%97%8F%20Estijaba%20helpline%3A%208001717%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Ministry%20of%20Health%20and%20Prevention%20hotline%3A%20045192519%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Mental%20health%20support%20line%3A%20800%204673%20(Hope)%3Cbr%3EMore%20information%20at%20hope.hw.gov.ae%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
While you're here
War and the virus
If you go:

 

Getting there:

Flying to Guyana requires first reaching New York with either Emirates or Etihad, then connecting with JetBlue or Caribbean Air at JFK airport. Prices start from around Dh7,000.

 

Getting around:

Wildlife Worldwide offers a range of Guyana itineraries, such as its small group tour, the 15-day ‘Ultimate Guyana Nature Experience’ which features Georgetown, the Iwokrama Rainforest (one of the world’s four remaining pristine tropical rainforests left in the world), the Amerindian village of Surama and the Rupununi Savannah, known for its giant anteaters and river otters; wildlifeworldwide.com

While you're here ...

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Armen Sarkissian
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Gifts exchanged
  • King Charles - replica of President Eisenhower Sword
  • Queen Camilla -  Tiffany & Co vintage 18-carat gold, diamond and ruby flower brooch
  • Donald Trump - hand-bound leather book with Declaration of Independence
  • Melania Trump - personalised Anya Hindmarch handbag
The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.8-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C200rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%20from%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh111%2C195%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
5 of the most-popular Airbnb locations in Dubai

Bobby Grudziecki, chief operating officer of Frank Porter, identifies the five most popular areas in Dubai for those looking to make the most out of their properties and the rates owners can secure:

• Dubai Marina

The Marina and Jumeirah Beach Residence are popular locations, says Mr Grudziecki, due to their closeness to the beach, restaurants and hotels.

Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh482 to Dh739 
Two bedroom: Dh627 to Dh960 
Three bedroom: Dh721 to Dh1,104

• Downtown

Within walking distance of the Dubai Mall, Burj Khalifa and the famous fountains, this location combines business and leisure.  “Sure it’s for tourists,” says Mr Grudziecki. “Though Downtown [still caters to business people] because it’s close to Dubai International Financial Centre."

Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh497 to Dh772
Two bedroom: Dh646 to Dh1,003
Three bedroom: Dh743 to Dh1,154

• City Walk

The rising star of the Dubai property market, this area is lined with pristine sidewalks, boutiques and cafes and close to the new entertainment venue Coca Cola Arena.  “Downtown and Marina are pretty much the same prices,” Mr Grudziecki says, “but City Walk is higher.”

Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh524 to Dh809 
Two bedroom: Dh682 to Dh1,052 
Three bedroom: Dh784 to Dh1,210 

• Jumeirah Lake Towers

Dubai Marina’s little brother JLT resides on the other side of Sheikh Zayed road but is still close enough to beachside outlets and attractions. The big selling point for Airbnb renters, however, is that “it’s cheaper than Dubai Marina”, Mr Grudziecki says.

Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh422 to Dh629 
Two bedroom: Dh549 to Dh818 
Three bedroom: Dh631 to Dh941

• Palm Jumeirah

Palm Jumeirah's proximity to luxury resorts is attractive, especially for big families, says Mr Grudziecki, as Airbnb renters can secure competitive rates on one of the world’s most famous tourist destinations.

Frank Porter’s average Airbnb rent:
One bedroom: Dh503 to Dh770 
Two bedroom: Dh654 to Dh1,002 
Three bedroom: Dh752 to Dh1,152 

Rocketman

Director: Dexter Fletcher

Starring: Taron Egerton, Richard Madden, Jamie Bell

Rating: 3 out of 5 stars 

DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE

Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin

Director: Shawn Levy

Rating: 3/5

Pros%20and%20cons%20of%20BNPL
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPros%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EEasy%20to%20use%20and%20require%20less%20rigorous%20credit%20checks%20than%20traditional%20credit%20options%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EOffers%20the%20ability%20to%20spread%20the%20cost%20of%20purchases%20over%20time%2C%20often%20interest-free%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EConvenient%20and%20can%20be%20integrated%20directly%20into%20the%20checkout%20process%2C%20useful%20for%20online%20shopping%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHelps%20facilitate%20cash%20flow%20planning%20when%20used%20wisely%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECons%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EThe%20ease%20of%20making%20purchases%20can%20lead%20to%20overspending%20and%20accumulation%20of%20debt%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMissing%20payments%20can%20result%20in%20hefty%20fees%20and%2C%20in%20some%20cases%2C%20high%20interest%20rates%20after%20an%20initial%20interest-free%20period%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EFailure%20to%20make%20payments%20can%20impact%20credit%20score%20negatively%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERefunds%20can%20be%20complicated%20and%20delayed%0D%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ECourtesy%3A%20Carol%20Glynn%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

Specs

Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

Range: 400km

Power: 134bhp

Torque: 175Nm

Price: From Dh98,800

Available: Now

Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
%3Cp%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%201.9km%20King%20Salman%20Boulevard%2C%20a%20Parisian%20Champs-Elysees-inspired%20avenue%2C%20is%20scheduled%20for%20completion%20in%202028%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20Royal%20Diriyah%20Opera%20House%20is%20expected%20to%20be%20completed%20in%20four%20years%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%20first%20of%2042%20hotels%2C%20the%20Bab%20Samhan%20hotel%2C%20will%20open%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20On%20completion%20in%202030%2C%20the%20Diriyah%20project%20is%20forecast%20to%20accommodate%20more%20than%20100%2C000%20people%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20%2463.2%20billion%20Diriyah%20project%20will%20contribute%20%247.2%20billion%20to%20the%20kingdom%E2%80%99s%20GDP%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20It%20will%20create%20more%20than%20178%2C000%20jobs%20and%20aims%20to%20attract%20more%20than%2050%20million%20visits%20a%20year%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20About%202%2C000%20people%20work%20for%20the%20Diriyah%20Company%2C%20with%20more%20than%2086%20per%20cent%20being%20Saudi%20citizens%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile

Date started: 2015

Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki

Based: Dubai

Sector: Online grocery delivery

Staff: 200

Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends

The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKinetic%207%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202018%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rick%20Parish%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Clean%20cooking%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self-funded%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

 

 

What are the influencer academy modules?
  1. Mastery of audio-visual content creation. 
  2. Cinematography, shots and movement.
  3. All aspects of post-production.
  4. Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
  5. Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
  6. Tourism industry knowledge.
  7. Professional ethics.
UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

David Haye record

Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

Star%20Wars%3A%20Episode%20I%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Phantom%20Menace
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About Okadoc

Date started: Okadoc, 2018

Founder/CEO: Fodhil Benturquia

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Healthcare

Size: (employees/revenue) 40 staff; undisclosed revenues recording “double-digit” monthly growth

Funding stage: Series B fundraising round to conclude in February

Investors: Undisclosed

ACL Elite (West) - fixtures

Monday, Sept 30

Al Sadd v Esteghlal (8pm)
Persepolis v Pakhtakor (8pm)
Al Wasl v Al Ahli (8pm)
Al Nassr v Al Rayyan (10pm)

Tuesday, Oct 1
Al Hilal v Al Shorta (10pm)
Al Gharafa v Al Ain (10pm)

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet

THE SPECS

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo

Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm

Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto

Top speed: 250kph

Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: Dh146,999

Evacuations to France hit by controversy
  • Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
  • Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
  • The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
  • Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
  • It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
  • Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
  • Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France

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Updated: July 22, 2024, 5:03 AM`