An asteroid that was briefly feared to be on a collision course with Earth is now more likely to strike the Moon in 2032, according to updated calculations by Nasa.
Astronomers have refined the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4 using data collected by the James Webb Space Telescope, revealing a slightly higher probability that the space rock could crash into the Moon’s surface.
The asteroid, about 80 metres wide, was discovered in late 2024 and initially appeared on Nasa’s risk list for colliding with the Earth.
More observations, however, have ruled out a direct hit. Latest calculations show that there is a 4.3 per cent chance the asteroid will strike the Moon on December 22, 2032.
“While asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth, Nasa’s James Webb Space Telescope collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun,” the agency said.
Even if the asteroid were to collide with the Moon, it would have no effect on its orbit or stability, Nasa said.
'Unprecedented opportunity'
Dr Dimitra Atri, principal investigator at New York University Abu Dhabi’s Space Exploration Laboratory, said the probability of impact was “relatively low”, but a collision would give researchers “an unprecedented scientific opportunity”.
“For the first time, we could observe the formation of a major lunar crater in real time using modern orbital instruments,” he said.
“Such an event would open possibilities for follow-up exploration. Rovers or astronauts could investigate the fresh impact site, yielding invaluable data about how impacts have shaped not only the Moon, but planetary surfaces throughout the solar system.”
The Moon’s heavily cratered surface is largely the result of asteroid and meteorite impacts over billions of years, but all those collisions happened before the age of space flight.
A new impact, and one that can be observed and studied from start to finish, could reveal how craters evolve, how subsurface materials are exposed and help scientists test planetary defence strategies.
A complex orbital path
Jonathan Ward, a fellow of the UK’s Royal Astronomical Society, said the orbital path of 2024 YR4 was still not fully understood due to factors such as the Yarkovsky effect, a force caused by the way an asteroid absorbs sunlight and radiates heat, altering its trajectory over time.
“We won’t know anything better about its potential for an impact in 2032 until it comes back by the Earth in 2028,” Mr Ward said.
Researchers were using the JWST to track the asteroid because it uses infrared wavelengths to detect heat signatures.
But now telescopes have lost sight of the space rock as it moves behind the Sun.
Mr Ward said the 2028 fly-by will be a critical opportunity to track the asteroid’s position with greater precision and determine if any further course changes are likely.
Could a deflection mission be possible?
While there is no threat to Earth, the asteroid has renewed discussions about planetary defence, particularly following the success of Nasa’s Dart mission in 2022, which intentionally slammed a spacecraft into an asteroid to chance its trajectory.
“A mission like Dart takes three to five years to prepare and launch,” Mr Ward said.
“If it ever became necessary, that gives us some time to act after the 2028 observations.
“But we still don’t know the full make-up of this asteroid. It’s likely a stony object, unlike Dimorphos, which was more of a rubble pile. That affects how it might respond to an impact.”
Looking ahead to 2028
Nasa confirmed that no additional observations of the asteroid are expected until 2028, when it returns closer towards Earth.
The asteroid is expected to pass at a safe distance, giving astronomers the best chance yet to determine whether a Moon impact in 2032 is possible.
Jebel Ali card
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
The National selections
1.45pm: Cosmic Glow
2.15pm: Karaginsky
2.45pm: Welcome Surprise
3.15pm: Taamol
3.45pm: Rayig
4.15pm: Chiefdom
4.45pm: California Jumbo
EMERGENCY PHONE NUMBERS
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
Who is Ramon Tribulietx?
Born in Spain, Tribulietx took sole charge of Auckland in 2010 and has gone on to lead the club to 14 trophies, including seven successive Oceania Champions League crowns. Has been tipped for the vacant New Zealand national team job following Anthony Hudson's resignation last month. Had previously been considered for the role.
Skoda Superb Specs
Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol
Power: 190hp
Torque: 320Nm
Price: From Dh147,000
Available: Now
more from Janine di Giovanni
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Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The language of diplomacy in 1853
Treaty of Peace in Perpetuity Agreed Upon by the Chiefs of the Arabian Coast on Behalf of Themselves, Their Heirs and Successors Under the Mediation of the Resident of the Persian Gulf, 1853
(This treaty gave the region the name “Trucial States”.)
We, whose seals are hereunto affixed, Sheikh Sultan bin Suggar, Chief of Rassool-Kheimah, Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon, Chief of Aboo Dhebbee, Sheikh Saeed bin Buyte, Chief of Debay, Sheikh Hamid bin Rashed, Chief of Ejman, Sheikh Abdoola bin Rashed, Chief of Umm-ool-Keiweyn, having experienced for a series of years the benefits and advantages resulting from a maritime truce contracted amongst ourselves under the mediation of the Resident in the Persian Gulf and renewed from time to time up to the present period, and being fully impressed, therefore, with a sense of evil consequence formerly arising, from the prosecution of our feuds at sea, whereby our subjects and dependants were prevented from carrying on the pearl fishery in security, and were exposed to interruption and molestation when passing on their lawful occasions, accordingly, we, as aforesaid have determined, for ourselves, our heirs and successors, to conclude together a lasting and inviolable peace from this time forth in perpetuity.
Taken from Britain and Saudi Arabia, 1925-1939: the Imperial Oasis, by Clive Leatherdale
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERemedy%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Microsoft%20Game%20Studios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%204%20%26amp%3B%205%2C%20Xbox%3A%20360%20%26amp%3B%20One%20%26amp%3B%20Series%20X%2FS%20and%20Nintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2017 Dodge Ram 1500 Laramie Longhorn
Price, base / as tested: Dhxxx
Engine: 5.7L V8
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 395hp @ 5,600rpm
Torque: 556Nm @ 3,950rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.7L / 100km
Veil (Object Lessons)
Rafia Zakaria
Bloomsbury Academic
Brighton 1
Gross (50' pen)
Tottenham 1
Kane (48)
