SpaceX’s Starship rocket is poised to become one of the most critical assets in US space ambitions, experts have said.
The comments come as the White House’s proposed budget cuts cast doubt on Nasa projects such as the SLS rocket and Orion capsule, both technologies which would be used to take astronauts to the Moon.
Space industry experts told The National that Starship could be the foundation of a new era in exploration, one that relies on powerful rockets, called heavy-lift vehicles, capable of carrying megatons of cargo and astronauts to the Moon and Mars.
The Starship rocket, however, is still under development, with test flights being carried out since 2023 from Boca Chica, Texas. The next test flight is potentially scheduled for May 21.
“With the future of Nasa’s SLS and Orion uncertain due to rising costs and limited reusability, Starship is increasingly emerging as the de facto backbone of US launch infrastructure,” said Lin Kayser, co-founder of Dubai company Leap 71, which develops artificial-intelligence models to generate rocket engines.
“SpaceX is already the primary launch provider for the US government and with Starship it becomes a near-monopoly at the high end of launch capability. That level of centralisation raises strategic concerns but it also highlights how far ahead SpaceX has pulled.”
Nasa had developed the SLS rocket for its Moon programme Artemis but each launch would have reportedly cost $4 billion and the entire programme is behind schedule. Billionaire Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has said Starship projects would be at a fraction of cost.
SpaceX has also made rapid progress through an iterative testing approach, which has helped speed up development compared to traditional government programmes. The company, however, still faces technical challenges before commercial operations of the powerful rocket can begin.
Starship’s eighth test flight in March ended with the spacecraft destroyed, though the booster was recovered successfully. The test next week will be crucial in proving the vehicle’s ability to operate reliably and safely.
“With Nasa’s budget cuts looming and SLS and Orion on the chopping block, Starship has become increasingly important,” said Sahith Madara, an aerospace engineer and founder of Paris advisory firm Bumi & Space. “It’s ironic to see that what was once a ‘back-up’ is now carrying the entire weight of the US deep-space ambitions.”
The shift comes as the White House proposes slashing Nasa’s budget by 24 per cent, from $24.8 billion to $18.8 billion, in 2026. The cut could affect major science missions, the International Space Station and planned Moon landings.
It could also reshape how the US approaches space exploration, with the private sector playing a more dominant role. Mr Kayser said Starship is also important in enabling a range of new commercial applications in orbit.
“Starship is the enabler for an entire class of orbital infrastructure. Starlink 2.0 cannot launch without it. The upcoming generation of direct-to-device internet, including global smartphone connectivity and real-time voice calls from orbit, will hinge on this vehicle,” said Mr Kayser.
He said beyond communications, companies are exploring the use of space for data centres and advanced manufacturing, thanks to Starship’s scale and payload capacity.
“AI data centre infrastructure is now migrating to space to take advantage of unlimited solar energy and passive radiative cooling," he said. “It’s about who will dominate the next trillion-dollar layer of the global economy. Anyone who wants to compete in that race needs to be building right now.”
Dave Barnhart, chief executive of California-based space infrastructure firm Arkisys, said the proposed cuts could push industry players to step up faster to fill the gaps.
“The ability for Nasa to continue its fundamental mission of science growth in space requires a variety of transport, platform and ground logistics,” he said. “Starship is important to replace heavy lift loss of SLS, as are smaller launch vehicles to support higher cadence.
"Near-term loss of Nasa key infrastructure elements, I believe, will incentivise and tap into fast response by industry to step up, support Nasa goals and accelerate their science goals.”
While SpaceX leads the current heavy-lift race, it is not the only private company in the game. Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, has also developed its own heavy-lift rocket, called New Glenn. The vehicle was launched successfully for the first time in January.
The Federal Aviation Administration recently approved up to 25 Starship launches a year, up from only five previously, giving SpaceX a clearer path to scaling up operations. Mr Musk is set to arrive in the UAE on Thursday, as part of a Gulf visit alongside US President Donald Trump.
