A Soyuz rocket lifts off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, a Russian spaceport in Kazakhstan. AP
A Soyuz rocket lifts off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, a Russian spaceport in Kazakhstan. AP
A Soyuz rocket lifts off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, a Russian spaceport in Kazakhstan. AP
A Soyuz rocket lifts off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, a Russian spaceport in Kazakhstan. AP

Russia risks being left out in the cold as International Space Station exit looms, experts say


Sarwat Nasir
  • English
  • Arabic

Russia is preparing to leave the International Space Station (ISS) at the end of this decade but faces major hurdles in building its own replacement, the Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS).

With sanctions restricting access to key space technologies, a shrinking space budget and growing delays in rocket and satellite development, experts say Russia’s ambitions for an independent space station may not materialise as planned. Despite publicly announced plans to launch ROSS's first module by 2027, analysts warn that the project is already facing technical and financial challenges, with little certainty over whether Russia can maintain its role as a leading space power.

“Russia's ability to develop its own orbital station is questionable,” Dr Pavel Luzin, a Russian political analyst and visiting scholar at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, told The National. “What we know is that there is one orbital module under construction since the early 2010s, the Scientific and Energy Module, and this module needs to be redesigned because at the beginning it was aimed for the ISS, not for a standalone mission.”

Russia joined forces with the US, Europe, Japan and Canada in 1998 to build the ISS, marking one of the most successful examples of post-Cold War collaboration. As geopolitical divisions deepen, however, Russia is looking for space partners outside the West, particularly China and other non-aligned nations.

Challenges on the horizon

But the development of ROSS comes as Russia’s space industry struggles with severe workforce shortages, ageing infrastructure and geopolitical isolation. “Actually, Russia is trying to keep its manned and military programme at any cost, but the space industry of Russia is not doing well. The number of engineers is decreasing, and the number of well-qualified engineers is decreasing even faster,” said Dr Luzin.

Sanctions imposed by the US, UK, Canada and other allied nations after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have crippled its ability to source advanced space technologies, particularly in satellite manufacturing.

“The sanctions have damaged Russia's space capabilities significantly,” said Dr Luzin. “Russia almost lost the ability to develop advanced satellites. All the big satellites orbited in 2022-2024 and planned for orbiting in 2025 are made with Western components imported before 2022 and sometimes before 2014.”

Scepticism over space plans

Sahith Madara, an aerospace engineer and founder of the advisory firm Bumi and Space, based in Paris, echoed Mr Luzin’s thoughts on how realistic a goal the project is. “ROSS seems like a tough bet given Russia’s shrinking space budget. With funding around $2 billion a year – way behind Nasa or China – it’s hard to see how they’ll fully finance and build an independent station on schedule,” he told The National.

“Sanctions and supply chain issues aren’t helping either, making things even more complicated. Delays feel almost inevitable. Russia has a history of slipping timelines (just look at the Angara rocket or the Luna-25 mission), and a project as big as ROSS is no exception. They’re aiming for 2027, but without major outside funding, maybe from China or other allies, it could easily drag into the 2030s.”

Military space ambitions take priority

To compensate, Moscow is increasingly prioritising military space activities, strengthening ties with China and other non-Western partners as it moves away from international co-operation in civilian space flight. “The plan for the Russian Orbital Service Station is ambitious, but at the same time, their military space ambitions are picking up speed,” said Mr Madara.

A Russian Soyuz spacecraft docked to the International Space Station. Reuters / Roscosmos
A Russian Soyuz spacecraft docked to the International Space Station. Reuters / Roscosmos

Since 2022, Russia has launched satellites with clear defence applications, including reconnaissance, electronic warfare and early warning systems. It has also reportedly been experimenting with anti-satellite weapons: military-grade weapons designed to destroy satellites.

“Space is becoming another front in the global defence competition, and Russia isn’t sitting this one out,” said Mr Madara. “Their growing collaborations, like launching satellites for Iran, suggest they’re building alliances in space that align with their geopolitical strategy, rather than relying on Western-led initiatives."

China: Russia's new friend in space

One question that looms over Russia’s ambition to build ROSS is whether China will step in as a key partner. The two countries have strengthened their collaboration in recent years, with China offering an alternative market for Russian technology and a potential ally in lunar exploration. In 2021, China and Russia officially announced their partnership for the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), a long-term project aimed at establishing a permanent base on the Moon.

The agreement marked one of the most significant space collaborations between the two nations. Despite this partnership, China appears to be firmly in the driver’s seat, while Russia’s role remains secondary. But despite their geopolitical alignment, experts say a partnership beyond ILRS is unlikely, especially in low-Earth orbit.

"China is hardly going to join Russia there because it has its own orbital station and own space strategy," said Dr Luzin. "Moreover, the planned parameters of the new station's orbit will make it hard to get there from other launch sites except Vostochny on Russian territory." China’s Tiangong space station is already operational, with astronauts who are currently living and working there.

Sole survivors
  • Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
  • George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
  • Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
  • Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
MATCH INFO

Jersey 147 (20 overs) 

UAE 112 (19.2 overs)

Jersey win by 35 runs

While you're here
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Specs

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Red flags
  • Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
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Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching

Crazy Rich Asians

Director: Jon M Chu

Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan

Four stars

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Empire of Enchantment: The Story of Indian Magic

John Zubrzycki, Hurst Publishers

JAPAN SQUAD

Goalkeepers: Masaaki Higashiguchi, Shuichi Gonda, Daniel Schmidt
Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Tomoaki Makino, Maya Yoshida, Sho Sasaki, Hiroki Sakai, Sei Muroya, Genta Miura, Takehiro Tomiyasu
Midfielders: Toshihiro Aoyama, Genki Haraguchi, Gaku Shibasaki, Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Shoya Nakajima, Takumi Minamino, Hidemasa Morita, Ritsu Doan
Forwards: Yuya Osako, Takuma Asano, Koya Kitagawa

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Profile of RentSher

Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE

Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi

Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE

Sector: Online rental marketplace

Size: 40 employees

Investment: $2 million

Shooting Ghosts: A U.S. Marine, a Combat Photographer, and Their Journey Back from War by Thomas J. Brennan and Finbarr O’Reilly

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
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  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
UAE WARRIORS RESULTS

Featherweight

Azouz Anwar (EGY) beat Marcelo Pontes (BRA)

TKO round 2

Catchweight 90kg

Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) beat Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)

Split points decision

Welterweight

Gimbat Ismailov (RUS) beat Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR)

TKO round 1

Flyweight (women)

Lucie Bertaud (FRA) beat Kelig Pinson (BEL)

Unanimous points decision

Lightweight

Alexandru Chitoran (ROU) beat Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)

TKO round 1

Catchweight 100kg

Marc Vleiger (NED) beat Mohamed Ali (EGY)

Rear neck choke round 1

Featherweight

James Bishop (NZ) beat Mark Valerio (PHI)

TKO round 2

Welterweight

Abdelghani Saber (EGY) beat Gerson Carvalho (BRA)

TKO round 1

Middleweight

Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) beat Igor Litoshik (BLR)

Unanimous points decision

Bantamweight

Fabio Mello (BRA) beat Mark Alcoba (PHI)

Unanimous points decision

Welterweight

Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magomedsultanov (RUS)

TKO round 1

Bantamweight

Trent Girdham (AUS) beat Jayson Margallo (PHI)

TKO round 3

Lightweight

Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) beat Roman Golovinov (UKR)

TKO round 1

Middleweight

Tarek Suleiman (SYR) beat Steve Kennedy (AUS)

Submission round 2

Lightweight

Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)

TKO round 2

Karwaan

Producer: Ronnie Screwvala

Director: Akarsh Khurana

Starring: Irrfan Khan, Dulquer Salmaan, Mithila Palkar

Rating: 4/5

Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
Rating: 4/5
Results:

6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 (PA) | Group 1 US$75,000 (Dirt) | 2,200 metres

Winner: Goshawke, Fernando Jara (jockey), Ali Rashid Al Raihe (trainer)

7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas (TB) | Listed $250,000 (D) | 1,600m

Winner: Silva, Oisin Murphy, Pia Brendt

7.40pm: Meydan Classic Trial (TB) | Conditions $100,000 (Turf) | 1,400m

Winner: Golden Jaguar, Connor Beasley, Ahmad bin Harmash

8.15pm: Al Shindagha Sprint (TB) | Group 3 $200,000 (D) | 1,200m

Winner: Drafted, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson

8.50pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (D) | 1,600m

Winner: Capezzano, Mickael Barzalona, Sandeep Jadhav

9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,000m

Winner: Oasis Charm, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

10pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m

Winner: Escalator, Christopher Hayes, Charlie Fellowes

MATCH INFO

Euro 2020 qualifier

Croatia v Hungary, Thursday, 10.45pm, UAE

TV: Match on BeIN Sports

FOOTBALL TEST

Team X 1 Team Y 0

Scorers

Red card

Man of the Match

 

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Results

Catchweight 60kg: Mohammed Al Katheeri (UAE) beat Mostafa El Hamy (EGY) TKO round 3

Light Heavyweight: Ibrahim El Sawi (EGY) no contest Kevin Oumar (COM) Unintentional knee by Oumer

Catchweight 73kg:  Yazid Chouchane (ALG) beat Ahmad Al Boussairy (KUW) Unanimous decision

Featherweight: Faris Khaleel Asha (JOR) beat Yousef Al Housani (UAE) TKO in round 2 through foot injury

Welterweight: Omar Hussein (JOR) beat Yassin Najid (MAR); Split decision

Middleweight: Yousri Belgaroui (TUN) beat Sallah Eddine Dekhissi (MAR); Round-1 TKO

Lightweight: Abdullah Mohammed Ali Musalim (UAE) beat Medhat Hussein (EGY); Triangle choke submission

Welterweight: Abdulla Al Bousheiri (KUW) beat Sofiane Oudina (ALG); Triangle choke Round-1

Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) beat Saleem Al Bakri (JOR); Unanimous decision

Bantamweight: Ali Taleb (IRQ) beat Nawras Abzakh (JOR); TKO round-2

Catchweight 63kg: Rany Saadeh (PAL) beat Abdel Ali Hariri (MAR); Unanimous decision

Updated: February 04, 2025, 4:53 AM`