On Monday, some western stock markets lost virtually all their gains made in the first quarter of 2012. The massive sell-off was sparked by gloomy economic news and growing political uncertainty in Europe. The popular backlash against draconian spending cuts is empowering far-right movements that threaten the euro and the entire European project.
Spain's borrowing costs are hovering around the 6 per cent mark; that could trigger another sovereign debt bailout and a second global credit crunch, as international banks holding Spanish bonds will refuse to lend to one another. Moreover, the unexpectedly sharp contraction of private sector business activity in the euro zone over the past few months has shocked investors and dashed hope of a sustained return to growth.
Worse, global investors are spooked by the French socialist François Hollande's victory in the first round of French presidential elections. That is raising fears of wrangling over the euro rescue strategy, and simmering tensions between an emboldened France that demands fiscal stimulus and an embittered Germany that wants further austerity.
So far Europe's political trouble seemed confined to the periphery. Greece and Italy have seen elected democracy cede temporary power to appointed technocracy, as austere economists took over from party politicians at the helm of government. Meanwhile, Spain's new elected executive struggles to deal with the economic mess left by the previous administration.
But now the crisis has reached core countries. The centre-right Dutch coalition government collapsed on Monday after a clash over budget cuts. As France appears poised to elect a socialist president in the second round of voting on May 6, Germany finds itself isolated within the euro zone. Many French voters want a stronger Europe to protect the country against globalisation, but they don't fancy the German version. The rest of Europe wants out of the iron cage of austerity.
Last December it seemed that Berlin had got its way. At an acrimonious summit where the British prime minister, David Cameron, wielded his veto power, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her French ally, Mr Sarkozy, agreed a "fiscal compact" that forces sovereign countries to balance their budgets under strict central control, backed up by the threat of heavy fines in case of noncompliance. Only last month did all but two EU states, the UK and the Czech Republic, sign up to the new treaty. That was supposed to be the beginning of the end of the euro zone's existential crisis.
Now the new consensus is fast unravelling. It is not just presidents and prime ministers who are losing power to their political opponents. What Europe is seeing is a growing popular outrage against the ruling elites. Across the old continent there is an inchoate awareness that big government and big business are colluding at the expense of the people. That is why there is such fury against states bailing out banks that hold sovereign bonds while cutting back on public services and failing to boost employment.
Reinforced by the contempt for professional politicians, the rage of impotence is fuelling the flames of social unrest - from mass protest in Athens to last summer's London riots. All this erodes the social contract on which European societies have rested since the French Revolution.
Traditionally, political power in France and elsewhere in Europe oscillated between the moderate left and the moderate right. Each sought to combine a promise of security for the old working class with a prospect of aspiration for the burgeoning bourgeoisie. But with falling real wages, growing inequality and pockets of entrenched poverty, France's social contract has given way to a deep disconnect between elites and the populace.
With the centre-left and the centre-right offering variations of the same old orthodoxies that are rejected by the electorate, it is the political extremes that benefit most from popular discontent. Little wonder that in last Sunday's presidential poll, the far-left guided by the dissident socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, won over 11 per cent and the far-right led by Marine Le Pen received nearly one-fifth of the vote.
Both view the EU's economic liberalism as a Trojan horse for greater globalisation that merely enriches the rich and impoverishes the poor. But whereas the far left struggles to mobilise beyond their old constituency, the far right appeals to the new "underclass" who are trapped in permanent welfare dependency and the "working poor" who struggle to make ends meet.
This, coupled with fears about immigration and Islam, puts the far-right front and centre. If Mr Sarkozy's party splits following defeats in the presidential run-off and parliamentary elections in June, Ms Le Pen's Front National will emerge as the leading right-wing force in France.
Her lethal mix of populism and Islamophobia is gaining ground and transforming European politics. From Austria via the Netherlands to Scandinavia, Europe's far-right has growing leverage over tax-and-spend and migration policies. That threatens Europe's post-national project of integration. France looks set to be at the epicentre of an anti-European revolt.
For now Mr Sarkozy cannot be written off. He remains a formidable opponent whose sheer energy could yet transform a lacklustre campaign into an electrifying contest with a much closer than expected outcome.
But his dilemma is that a turn to the far-right will alienate the centre and vice-versa, yet for victory he desperately needs the support of both. To square this circle, his chosen strategy is to mix patriotic clamour with scare tactics over a left-wing victory.
Whether or not Mr Sarkozy gains re-election, the real winner will be Ms Le Pen's extreme right.
Adrian Pabst is lecturer in politics at Britain's University of Kent and visiting professor at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Lille in France
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League last-16, second leg:
Real Madrid 1 (Asensio 70'), Ajax 4 (Ziyech 7', Neres 18', Tadic 62', Schone 72')
Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
MATCH INFO
Newcastle 2-2 Manchester City
Burnley 0-2 Crystal Palace
Chelsea 0-1 West Ham
Liverpool 2-1 Brighton
Tottenham 3-2 Bournemouth
Southampton v Watford (late)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sav%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Purvi%20Munot%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%20as%20of%20March%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
more from Janine di Giovanni
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
The specs: McLaren 600LT
Price, base: Dh914,000
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 600hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 620Nm @ 5,500rpm
Fuel economy 12.2.L / 100km
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press
Getting there
The flights
Flydubai operates up to seven flights a week to Helsinki. Return fares to Helsinki from Dubai start from Dh1,545 in Economy and Dh7,560 in Business Class.
The stay
Golden Crown Igloos in Levi offer stays from Dh1,215 per person per night for a superior igloo; www.leviniglut.net
Panorama Hotel in Levi is conveniently located at the top of Levi fell, a short walk from the gondola. Stays start from Dh292 per night based on two people sharing; www. golevi.fi/en/accommodation/hotel-levi-panorama
Arctic Treehouse Hotel in Rovaniemi offers stays from Dh1,379 per night based on two people sharing; www.arctictreehousehotel.com
THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
Brief scores:
Toss: Kerala Knights, opted to fielf
Pakhtoons 109-5 (10 ov)
Fletcher 32; Lamichhane 3-17
Kerala Knights 110-2 (7.5 ov)
Morgan 46 not out, Stirling 40
The five pillars of Islam