Argentina to win World Cup; more years of hurt for England, according to prediction model


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A London-based stockbroker has forecast victory for Argentina and yet more years of hurt for England football fans, according to its model predicting the winner of the 2022 Fifa World Cup.

After toppling Spain in the semi-finals, Lionel Messi’s Argentina will beat old rivals England in the December 18 final in Qatar to lift their first World Cup in 36 years, Liberum Capital Ltd strategist Joachim Klement said in a note on Tuesday.

Klement added that the model has correctly predicted the winners of the past two World Cups in 2014 and 2018 – Germany and France, respectively. He cautioned that the process includes “an element of chance” and added that he has several excuses prepared in case his prediction is wrong.

“I have been working in the financial services industry for more than 20 years and if I have perfected one thing, it is how to find excuses for faulty predictions,” he said. “If I am right, it’s skill and if I am wrong, it’s somebody else’s fault.”

Klement’s model factors-in current team strength as well as socioeconomic variables that previous research has shown affect an international football team’s performance, such as per-capita GDP, population size and country temperature, he said.

Several investment banks publish predictions before major football tournaments. Goldman Sachs used data on about 6,000 matches to devise a probability model ahead of Euro 2020. Goldman initially picked Belgium to win that tournament, before later switching to England, who ended as runners-up.

The footballing rivalry between England and Argentina goes back decades. The infamous “Hand of God” goal scored by Diego Maradona in the 1986 World Cup quarter-final in Mexico – a tournament Argentina went on to win – is seen as a major moment. England have won the World Cup just once, in 1966.

Liberum’s Klement also used his note to express his love for the beautiful game.

“Your job, your marriage, the birth of your children, none of that matters compared to the question of which random assortment of 20-something millionaires are most successful at kicking a children’s toy across a lawn,” he added.

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Libya's Gold

UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves. 

The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.

Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.

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Red flags
  • Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
  • Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
  • Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
  • Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
  • Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.

Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching

It’ll be summer in the city as car show tries to move with the times

If 2008 was the year that rocked Detroit, 2019 will be when Motor City gives its annual car extravaganza a revamp that aims to move with the times.

A major change is that this week's North American International Auto Show will be the last to be held in January, after which the event will switch to June.

The new date, organisers said, will allow exhibitors to move vehicles and activities outside the Cobo Center's halls and into other city venues, unencumbered by cold January weather, exemplified this week by snow and ice.

In a market in which trends can easily be outpaced beyond one event, the need to do so was probably exacerbated by the decision of Germany's big three carmakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi – to skip the auto show this year.

The show has long allowed car enthusiasts to sit behind the wheel of the latest models at the start of the calendar year but a more fluid car market in an online world has made sales less seasonal.

Similarly, everyday technology seems to be catching up on those whose job it is to get behind microphones and try and tempt the visiting public into making a purchase.

Although sparkly announcers clasp iPads and outline the technical gadgetry hidden beneath bonnets, people's obsession with their own smartphones often appeared to offer a more tempting distraction.

“It's maddening,” said one such worker at Nissan's stand.

The absence of some pizzazz, as well as top marques, was also noted by patrons.

“It looks like there are a few less cars this year,” one annual attendee said of this year's exhibitors.

“I can't help but think it's easier to stay at home than to brave the snow and come here.”

David Haye record

Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

Director: Laxman Utekar

Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna

Rating: 1/5

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MATCH INFO

Arsenal 1 (Aubameyang 12’) Liverpool 1 (Minamino 73’)

Arsenal win 5-4 on penalties

Man of the Match: Ainsley Maitland-Niles (Arsenal)

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The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
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7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

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Updated: September 28, 2022, 8:32 AM`