Fear and worry are the enemies of Egypt's future

A majority of voters - more than 77 per cent - have backed Egypt's constitutional amendments this month after 41 million voters went to the polls. With 45 million registered to vote in the country, it was the highest elections turnout in Egypt's history.

Now, the national forces that worked for a "no" vote on these amendments and rejected the quick timetable and other related measures have no choice but to immediately prepare for Egypt's next challenge in the parliamentary elections.

The referendum has determined the mechanism by which the constitution will be changed and, with the next elections, Egypt will take a second great step towards democratic transition.

Many of those who voted against the amendments feel a mix of frustration, fear and worry today.

Their frustration results from the weakness of their voting bloc, which slightly exceeded 22 per cent of the vote. Their fear comes from the power of the religious forces that supported the amendments, which were passed by a majority of voters. And their worry stems from the fact that they must now face parliamentary elections without the tools for effective competition.

However, surrendering to this negative atmosphere - which is based more on exaggeration than on serious analysis - could have disastrous consequences.

The voting bloc that rejected the amendments is not a marginalised minority; it comprises almost one fourth of the 41 million voters who participated in the referendum. Nor were religious forces the only ones who supported the amendments. Indeed, those who voted "yes" should not be considered as a monolithic bloc; many citizens favoured the amendments for reasons that had nothing to do with the rhetoric of religious forces.

There is a worry among some Egyptians that the Muslim Brotherhood will dominate the parliamentary elections, giving them control of parliament and the constitutional assembly that will be charged with drafting the new charter.

Although reason for this concern exists, it must not interfere with the democratic process and political competition. It must not cause national forces to shun the elections instead of entering them and encouraging citizens to participate. The words "frustration", "fear" and "worry" will not produce a healthy, vibrant democracy.

Egypt has no time to surrender to this negative sentiment. The central discussion about the electoral regime must begin now and aim to craft a clear public preference among citizens for a regime that combines party lists and independent seats.

Egypt must also hold ongoing discussions between various national forces on the creation and announcement of political parties.

Discussions so far have focused on two options. The first is the search for parties that would unite leftists and liberals in support of democracy and the civil state. The second is the desire to form parties based on a clear political identity. This latter approach could split the votes of the constituencies that support democracy and a state built on civil institutions.

With the referendum complete, Egyptians must begin now to form unified parties that can quickly agree on candidates for the parliamentary elections and present them to their constituencies.

After elections, Egyptians should enter a second phase in the transition to democracy by forming political parties based on pure identity, especially if the first phase does not permit integrated party programmes to be drafted.

Organising politically into representative blocs will help to ensure that the transition to democracy succeeds. Otherwise, Egyptians may find themselves lapsing into a lethal mix of frustration, fear and worry that can undermine the entire project.

Amr Hamzawy is the research director at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut and the spokesman for Egypt's Committee of Wise Men, which has recommended specific policy changes for the country's transition

The British in India: Three Centuries of Ambition and Experience

by David Gilmour

Allen Lane

How to register as a donor

1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention

2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants

3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.

4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: From Dh139,000
On sale: Now

How to wear a kandura

Dos

Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester

Don’ts

Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"

Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Closing the loophole on sugary drinks

As The National reported last year, non-fizzy sugared drinks were not covered when the original tax was introduced in 2017. Sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, 20 grams of sugar per 500ml bottle.

The non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.

Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.

Flavoured water, long-life fruit juice concentrates, pre-packaged sweetened coffee drinks fall under the ‘sweetened drink’ category

Not taxed:

Freshly squeezed fruit juices, ground coffee beans, tea leaves and pre-prepared flavoured milkshakes do not come under the ‘sweetened drink’ band.

Specs

Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)

Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)

Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)

The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe

Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km

THREE

%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Nayla%20Al%20Khaja%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Jefferson%20Hall%2C%20Faten%20Ahmed%2C%20Noura%20Alabed%2C%20Saud%20Alzarooni%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Torbal Rayeh Wa Jayeh
Starring: Ali El Ghoureir, Khalil El Roumeithy, Mostafa Abo Seria
Stars: 3

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950