We have learnt to expect surprises at UN climate change summits.
At Durban, a year ago, there was the unexpected, but welcome, agreement to begin negotiations on a new legally binding instrument, involving all major emitters of greenhouse gases, to be finalised by 2015 and to take effect in 2020.
At Copenhagen and Cancun, in 2009 and 2010 respectively, negotiators, to the surprise of many, abandoned "Plan A" for an international emission-control agreement in favour of "Plan B" (as proposed by the Danish prime minister) including 2020 "pledges" and an information-exchange agreement among countries about emissions.
The unanticipated may also be in store this year: Qatar, as host, may be seeking a big initiative to underline its credentials globally.
The summit, which began yesterday, represents an unparalleled opportunity to engage the GCC states. With their fossil-fuel wealth and growing technological and research strengths, GCC countries could transform the global climate-change strategy. Yet, as a group, they have been largely ignored.
So what might the GCC's "game-changing" contribution look like?
GCC countries could lead development and funding of carbon capture and storage (CCS), the technology to sequester greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, preventing emission into the atmosphere.
There is no credible scenario, without CCS, under which emissions can be sufficiently reduced to limit the global average temperature rise to 3°C by 2100, well above the agreed UN goal of 2°C.
Storage of carbon dioxide in rock from which oil and water have been extracted is well established. Plans are being discussed in many countries, but only a few, including China and Norway, have experience of industrial-scale pilot projects for extracting carbon dioxide from power-plant exhaust gases.
Estimates say the overall costs of CCS are comparable to the extra costs of renewable energy. And CCS has the advantage of not depending on weather, and is particularly applicable in countries that rely on coal, such as China and India.
In the long term, CCS will be viable only if sufficient costs are imposed on installations that emit carbon.
Estimates suggest that, once CCS technology is mature, a carbon price of between $44 and $103 (Dh162 and Dh 378) per tonne would make CCS viable. The current price in the European Union (the world's top carbon market) is much lower.
However, a tightening of the cap on emissions from 2013 means that the EU carbon price is on a trajectory towards the critical price band. Moreover, recent steps to create carbon markets in Australia, China, Mexico, South Korea and California indicate a global trend.
Achieving CCS in the short-to-medium-term requires big capital investments. With uncertainty about regulation and the future price of carbon, plus widespread fiscal constraints, those investments have not yet been forthcoming.
This could soon change. First, the regulatory outlook is more certain now. The Kyoto Protocol has been extended and stricter carbon constraints on all major countries are probable after 2020, reducing the regulatory risk of investment in CCS.
Second, GCC states have a growing incentive to commercialise CCS, possibly by using their massive sovereign wealth funds. Because CCS eliminates greenhouse gas emissions, it can make fossil fuel markets environmentally sustainable. Once commercialised, CCS technology will be exportable, creating new jobs.
Third, China is planning a timetable for emissions reductions under a post-2020 climate-change deal. It is in fossil-fuel-dependent China's interest to commercialise CCS and other advanced technologies. As rapid economic growth leads to construction of many new power stations, mostly coal-fired, large demand for CCS should lower costs.
As well as China and the GCC states, the EU, as the world's largest carbon market, would also support progress on CCS. Driving down CSS costs would help countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic, that rely on coal and so now act as a brake on Europe's ambition to limit climate change.
The opportunity is crystal clear. If Qatar is looking for something big to showcase its credentials on the world stage, this may be it.
Lord Hunt is visiting professor at Delft University, and former director-general of the UK Met office
Name: Brendalle Belaza
From: Crossing Rubber, Philippines
Arrived in the UAE: 2007
Favourite place in Abu Dhabi: NYUAD campus
Favourite photography style: Street photography
Favourite book: Harry Potter
THE BIO
Family: I have three siblings, one older brother (age 25) and two younger sisters, 20 and 13
Favourite book: Asking for my favourite book has to be one of the hardest questions. However a current favourite would be Sidewalk by Mitchell Duneier
Favourite place to travel to: Any walkable city. I also love nature and wildlife
What do you love eating or cooking: I’m constantly in the kitchen. Ever since I changed the way I eat I enjoy choosing and creating what goes into my body. However, nothing can top home cooked food from my parents.
Favorite place to go in the UAE: A quiet beach.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
MATCH INFO
Fixture: Ukraine v Portugal, Monday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: BeIN Sports
RESULTS
Welterweight
Tohir Zhuraev (TJK) beat Mostafa Radi (PAL)
(Unanimous points decision)
Catchweight 75kg
Anas Siraj Mounir (MAR) beat Leandro Martins (BRA)
(Second round knockout)
Flyweight (female)
Manon Fiorot (FRA) beat Corinne Laframboise (CAN)
(RSC in third round)
Featherweight
Bogdan Kirilenko (UZB) beat Ahmed Al Darmaki
(Disqualification)
Lightweight
Izzedine Al Derabani (JOR) beat Rey Nacionales (PHI)
(Unanimous points)
Featherweight
Yousef Al Housani (UAE) beat Mohamed Fargan (IND)
(TKO first round)
Catchweight 69kg
Jung Han-gook (KOR) beat Max Lima (BRA)
(First round submission by foot-lock)
Catchweight 71kg
Usman Nurmogamedov (RUS) beat Jerry Kvarnstrom (FIN)
(TKO round 1).
Featherweight title (5 rounds)
Lee Do-gyeom (KOR) v Alexandru Chitoran (ROU)
(TKO round 1).
Lightweight title (5 rounds)
Bruno Machado (BRA) beat Mike Santiago (USA)
(RSC round 2).
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Destroyer
Director: Karyn Kusama
Cast: Nicole Kidman, Toby Kebbell, Sebastian Stan
Rating: 3/5
UAE release: January 31
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Joe Root's Test record
Tests: 53; Innings: 98; Not outs: 11; Runs: 4,594; Best score: 254; Average: 52.80; 100s: 11; 50s: 27
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Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
