The actual number of global deaths from Covid-19 could be more than three times higher than official records suggest, a study has shown.
It is estimated that more than 18.2 million people may have died from coronavirus through the end of December last year.
This is despite the official Covid death toll indicating that 5.9 million people lost their lives between January 1 2020 and December 31, 2021.
Excess deaths — the difference between total deaths and the number expected based on past trends — are a key measure of the true death toll of the pandemic.
Although experts have made several attempts to estimate excess deaths from Covid, many have been limited by the availability of data.
The new study, published in The Lancet, provides the first peer-reviewed estimates of excess deaths — direct and indirect — due to the pandemic globally and for 191 countries and territories between January 2020 and December 2021.
Lead author Dr Haidong Wang, of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said: “Understanding the true death toll from the pandemic is vital for effective public health decision-making.
“Studies from several countries, including Sweden and the Netherlands, suggest Covid-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths, but we currently don’t have enough evidence for most locations.
“Further research will help to reveal how many deaths were caused directly by Covid-19 and how many occurred as an indirect result of the pandemic.”
Researchers collected weekly or monthly data on deaths from all causes in 2021, 2020 and up to 11 previous years for 74 countries and 266 states and provinces through searches of government websites, the World Mortality Database, the Human Mortality Database and the European Statistical Office.
The data were used in models to estimate excess deaths due to Covid-19, including in locations with no weekly or monthly reporting of death data.
The excess death rate is estimated to be 120 deaths per 100,000 people globally, but 21 countries were estimated to have rates of more than 300 excess deaths per 100,000.
The research shows rates of excess death are estimated to have varied significantly by country and region.
The highest estimated excess deaths were in Andean Latin America — 512 deaths per 100,000 people; Eastern Europe — 345 deaths per 100,000; Central Europe — 316 deaths per 100,000; Southern Sub-Saharan Africa — 309 deaths per 100,000; and Central Latin America — 274 deaths per 100,000.
“Studies from several countries, including Sweden and the Netherlands, suggest Covid-19 was the direct cause of most excess deaths, but we currently don’t have enough evidence for most locations
Dr Haidong Wang,
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Outside these regions, several locations are estimated to have had similarly high rates, including Lebanon, Armenia, Tunisia, Libya, several regions of Italy, and several states in the southern US.
However, in stark contrast, some countries were estimated to have had fewer deaths than expected based on trends in prior years.
These included Iceland, with 48 fewer deaths per 100,000; Australia, with 38 fewer deaths per 100,000; and Singapore, with 16 fewer deaths per 100,000.
South Asia had the highest number of estimated excess deaths from Covid, with 5.3 million excess deaths, followed by North Africa and the Middle East (1.7 million), and Eastern Europe (1.4 million).
At the country level, the highest number of estimated excess deaths occurred in India (4.1 million) and the US and Russia, both with 1.1 million.
Along with Mexico (798,000), Brazil (792,000), Indonesia (736,000) and Pakistan (664,000), these countries may have accounted for more than half of global excess deaths over the 24-month period studied, the research suggests.
Researchers say the large differences between excess deaths and official records may be because of under-diagnosis due to a lack of testing and issues with death data being reported.
They say it is crucial to distinguish between deaths caused directly by Covid and those that occurred as an indirect result of the pandemic.
Evidence from initial studies suggests a significant proportion of excess deaths were a direct result of coronavirus, however deaths may also have occurred indirectly from causes such as suicide or drug use due to behavioural changes or lack of access to health care and other essential services.
To date, only 36 countries have released cause of death data for 2020.
As data from more countries become available, scientists will have a better idea of how many deaths were caused directly by Covid and how many occurred as an indirect result.
The authors acknowledge a number of limitations to their study, including that a statistical model was used to predict excess deaths for countries that did not report weekly or monthly data.
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Director: Jake Kasdan
Stars: Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Karen Gillan, Jack Black, Nick Jonas
Two out of five stars
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
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MATCH INFO
Fixture: Thailand v UAE, Tuesday, 4pm (UAE)
TV: Abu Dhabi Sports
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Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
Barcelona 3
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If you go
- The nearest international airport to the start of the Chuysky Trakt is in Novosibirsk. Emirates (www.emirates.com) offer codeshare flights with S7 Airlines (www.s7.ru) via Moscow for US$5,300 (Dh19,467) return including taxes. Cheaper flights are available on Flydubai and Air Astana or Aeroflot combination, flying via Astana in Kazakhstan or Moscow. Economy class tickets are available for US$650 (Dh2,400).
- The Double Tree by Hilton in Novosibirsk ( 7 383 2230100,) has double rooms from US$60 (Dh220). You can rent cabins at camp grounds or rooms in guesthouses in the towns for around US$25 (Dh90).
- The transport Minibuses run along the Chuysky Trakt but if you want to stop for sightseeing, hire a taxi from Gorno-Altaisk for about US$100 (Dh360) a day. Take a Russian phrasebook or download a translation app. Tour companies such as Altair-Tour ( 7 383 2125115 ) offer hiking and adventure packages.
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Red flags
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Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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UAE and Russia in numbers
UAE-Russia ties stretch back 48 years
Trade between the UAE and Russia reached Dh12.5 bn in 2018
More than 3,000 Russian companies are registered in the UAE
Around 40,000 Russians live in the UAE
The number of Russian tourists travelling to the UAE will increase to 12 percent to reach 1.6 million in 2023
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
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