Latest analysis: Covid Delta surge in vaccinated societies shows masks are here to stay
As the Delta coronavirus variant causes thousands or tens of thousands of cases a day in countries ranging from Israel to Japan and the US, another nation is dealing with an outbreak of a very different scale.
New Zealand is in a strict lockdown introduced initially because of a single coronavirus case detected last week – an uncompromising response that reflects the country’s elimination strategy for Covid-19.
There have been 63 new cases of Covid-19 recorded in the community in the past 24 hours, taking the total number of active cases to 210, the highest figure since April 2020, as the web of contacts linked to the first person to test positive expands.
If the elimination strategy requires regular lockdowns to control outbreaks, then it may not be sustainable in the long term
Prof Nick Wilson,
University of Otago, New Zealand
Thanks to intensive contact tracing, testing and isolation, experts believe the country will, however, be able to stamp out this current outbreak, even if doing so takes several weeks.
The elimination strategy of the government led by Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, contrasts with the suppression or mitigation approach used by many other countries, which is based on vaccination and more limited lockdowns. New Zealand has fully vaccinated about 23 per cent of its population, the lowest of the OECD group of developed countries.
Australia and Singapore have also adopted the elimination approach to Covid-19, and plan to continue until high vaccination rates enable a move to a policy of suppression – living with the virus. But will New Zealand follow a similar strategy?
Benefits of the elimination strategy
Elimination has downsides, including a significant effect on New Zealand’s international tourism industry.
Even New Zealanders have found it difficult to return to their home country because of the strict border controls imposed to keep the country Covid-free.
But there have been significant upsides, not least the lowest mortality rate in the 38-member Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with only 26 deaths recorded.
This is a tiny fraction of the number seen in many nations and is extremely low even after taking into account the country’s modest population of about five million.
At home, New Zealanders have typically enjoyed more freedom than their counterparts in other developed countries since the coronavirus emerged. Concerts and sports matches have taken place without the need for social distancing or masks.
The country’s economy also recovered faster than that of most OECD nations, although continued lockdowns could cause a reversal in economic fortunes.
A study published in May found that after disruption during the lockdown early last year, vital hospital services in the country, particularly cancer treatment, had not been heavily affected by the pandemic, helped by the fact hospitals were not overwhelmed by Covid-19 cases.
Can elimination continue for ever?
Opinions on whether New Zealand can maintain its strategy is divided. Some experts outside the country think that, in the long term, elimination is unrealistic.
Prof Eskild Petersen, an infectious diseases specialist at Aarhus University Hospital in Denmark, suggests that his country’s experience indicates that, with high vaccination rates – about 70 per cent of Denmark’s population is fully vaccinated – it is possible to live with the virus.
"In Denmark we have about 1,000 cases per day. The schools are open. There’s no longer a mask mandate in public spaces. People get infected, but hospitalisations remain low,” he said.
"The strategy of New Zealand – a nationwide lockdown – is very, very expensive compared with our strategy, where we have immunised as many people as possible as fast as possible.”
The relative benefits of an elimination strategy will decline, according to David Taylor, professor emeritus of pharmaceutical and public health policy at University College London.
“In time, if the world is going to normalise – and it will – we will probably get better vaccines produced and better drugs. At that stage, the advantages of trying to run an isolation policy fade away,” he said.
What will New Zealand do?
While New Zealand has indicated that it could begin to open up to the world next year, it has not said that it will abandon its elimination strategy.
Travellers entering the country will be treated according to the risk level of the country they are coming from, with some having to undergo managed isolation and quarantine.
This scheme, in which those arriving have to isolate in particular hotels on arrival, has been key to preventing the coronavirus from entering New Zealand.
Experts in the country said it is not clear how the coronavirus will affect health in societies over the long term.
It may become an endemic virus with a low-level impact, or it could impose a significant continuing disease burden.
Until the outcome becomes clear, they argue, it may be sensible to maintain elimination, a strategy popular with New Zealanders, according to reports.
Are regular lockdowns sustainable?
When more people in New Zealand are vaccinated – currently only about one in five residents are fully jabbed – it may be possible to continue with elimination even when “easing up on border controls” next year, suggested Prof Nick Wilson, of the department of public health at the University of Otago in New Zealand.
“It will mean that outbreaks arising from imported cases become more feasible to control,” he said. “Travellers to New Zealand will also need to be vaccinated, so that will help.
"But if the elimination strategy requires regular lockdowns to control outbreaks, then it may not be sustainable in the long term, given that the public acceptance of lockdowns will decline, as it is starting to in places like New South Wales in Australia.”
As well as preventing illness and death from Covid-19, the elimination strategy stops health services from becoming overburdened during coronavirus outbreaks, Prof Wilson said.
When hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, treatment for serious conditions such as cancer or heart disease can be affected.
Prof Wilson cites modelling, which indicates that, even with high vaccination coverage, New Zealand’s health system could become overloaded.
"Many other measures for Covid-19 control are likely to persist in 2022, for example extensive community testing, extensive wastewater testing and mask use requirements on buses,” he said.
As it vaccinates, New Zealand is continuing with austere control measures and giving itself time to decide on a long-term approach.
After all, as Ms Ardern has noted, once elimination is abandoned, there is no going back.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Why are asylum seekers being housed in hotels?
The number of asylum applications in the UK has reached a new record high, driven by those illegally entering the country in small boats crossing the English Channel.
A total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
Asylum seekers and their families can be housed in temporary accommodation while their claim is assessed.
The Home Office provides the accommodation, meaning asylum seekers cannot choose where they live.
When there is not enough housing, the Home Office can move people to hotels or large sites like former military bases.
Understand What Black Is
The Last Poets
(Studio Rockers)
If you go
The flights
There are direct flights from Dubai to Sofia with FlyDubai (www.flydubai.com) and Wizz Air (www.wizzair.com), from Dh1,164 and Dh822 return including taxes, respectively.
The trip
Plovdiv is 150km from Sofia, with an hourly bus service taking around 2 hours and costing $16 (Dh58). The Rhodopes can be reached from Sofia in between 2-4hours.
The trip was organised by Bulguides (www.bulguides.com), which organises guided trips throughout Bulgaria. Guiding, accommodation, food and transfers from Plovdiv to the mountains and back costs around 170 USD for a four-day, three-night trip.
Which honey takes your fancy?
Al Ghaf Honey
The Al Ghaf tree is a local desert tree which bears the harsh summers with drought and high temperatures. From the rich flowers, bees that pollinate this tree can produce delicious red colour honey in June and July each year
Sidr Honey
The Sidr tree is an evergreen tree with long and strong forked branches. The blossom from this tree is called Yabyab, which provides rich food for bees to produce honey in October and November. This honey is the most expensive, but tastiest
Samar Honey
The Samar tree trunk, leaves and blossom contains Barm which is the secret of healing. You can enjoy the best types of honey from this tree every year in May and June. It is an historical witness to the life of the Emirati nation which represents the harsh desert and mountain environments
The five stages of early child’s play
From Dubai-based clinical psychologist Daniella Salazar:
1. Solitary Play: This is where Infants and toddlers start to play on their own without seeming to notice the people around them. This is the beginning of play.
2. Onlooker play: This occurs where the toddler enjoys watching other people play. There doesn’t necessarily need to be any effort to begin play. They are learning how to imitate behaviours from others. This type of play may also appear in children who are more shy and introverted.
3. Parallel Play: This generally starts when children begin playing side-by-side without any interaction. Even though they aren’t physically interacting they are paying attention to each other. This is the beginning of the desire to be with other children.
4. Associative Play: At around age four or five, children become more interested in each other than in toys and begin to interact more. In this stage children start asking questions and talking about the different activities they are engaging in. They realise they have similar goals in play such as building a tower or playing with cars.
5. Social Play: In this stage children are starting to socialise more. They begin to share ideas and follow certain rules in a game. They slowly learn the definition of teamwork. They get to engage in basic social skills and interests begin to lead social interactions.
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Army of the Dead
Director: Zack Snyder
Stars: Dave Bautista, Ella Purnell, Omari Hardwick, Ana de la Reguera
Three stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Armen Sarkissian
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Listen to Extra Time
Banthology: Stories from Unwanted Nations
Edited by Sarah Cleave, Comma Press
More from Aya Iskandarani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
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Nepotism is the name of the game
Salman Khan’s father, Salim Khan, is one of Bollywood’s most legendary screenwriters. Through his partnership with co-writer Javed Akhtar, Salim is credited with having paved the path for the Indian film industry’s blockbuster format in the 1970s. Something his son now rules the roost of. More importantly, the Salim-Javed duo also created the persona of the “angry young man” for Bollywood megastar Amitabh Bachchan in the 1970s, reflecting the angst of the average Indian. In choosing to be the ordinary man’s “hero” as opposed to a thespian in new Bollywood, Salman Khan remains tightly linked to his father’s oeuvre. Thanks dad.
