Climate change tripled the number of heat-related deaths across European cities in the recent heatwaves, a rapid analysis by scientists has estimated.
Global warming, caused primarily by humans burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests, made the searing heat that gripped much of Europe in late June and early July much more intense, researchers found.
The heatwaves were up to 4ºC hotter across cities compared to a world without climate change, the study from the World Weather Attribution group of researchers said.
And in the first rapid study to estimate the number of deaths linked to climate change in a heatwave, researchers found human-driven global warming was responsible for around 65 per cent of the deaths that occurred across 12 cities, including London, Paris, Madrid, Barcelona and Rome.
The scientists behind the study said that heatwaves were “quietly devastating” and their research showed how dangerous climate change already was with just 1.3ºC of warming, particularly for older and more vulnerable people.
They also said that their analysis focused on 12 cities, providing only a snapshot of the deaths linked to climate change-driven high temperatures across Europe, which may have reached into the tens of thousands.
The assessment focused on 10 days of heat from June 23 to July 2, when a “heat dome” high pressure system over Europe trapped hot dry air and pushed up temperatures, as well as pulling hot air from North Africa, intensifying the heatwave.
The searing temperatures led schools to close in parts of France, outdoor working to be banned during the hottest parts of the day in Italy, raised the risk of wildfires, and triggered health alerts across many countries, including a red alert for Paris and amber alerts for London and many parts of England.
The researchers used weather data to assess the intensity of the heatwaves over their hottest five-day period in a world which has seen 1.3ºC of warming and compared it the cooler pre-industrial climate.
The scientists also used existing research on the relationship between heat and the number of daily deaths in the cities to estimate the number of excess deaths due to the heatwaves and compared it to a “counterfactual” of the numbers of deaths in heatwave temperatures without climate change.
The study, led by scientists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), found around 1,500 of the 2,300 estimated heat deaths were the result of climate change – equating to a tripling of the number of deaths in the heatwave due to global warming.
Climate change was responsible for an estimated 171 excess deaths in London, 317 in Madrid and 235 in Paris, the study found.
Most of the deaths were in older age groups, the researchers said, highlighting the growing risk older people in Europe face from dying prematurely due to longer, hotter and more frequent heatwaves.
Dr Ben Clarke, researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, said: “Heatwaves don’t leave a trail of destruction like wildfires or storms.
“Their impacts are mostly invisible, but quietly devastating – a change of just 2 or 3C can mean the difference between life and death for thousands of people.
“Our study shows how dangerous climate change already is with just 1.3C of warming.
“However, we could reach 3C this century, unless countries speed up the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
“That would bring fiercer heatwaves to Europe, causing more deaths and placing greater pressure on health systems.”
Dr Pierre Masselot, research fellow at LSHTM, said: “At the rate the world is warming, heatwaves are not going away and we have to prepare for their public health impacts.
“Cities can adapt by planting trees, reducing the space given to cars and caring for the most vulnerable.
“But ultimately, the best way to avoid dire consequences is to aggressively reduce greenhouse gases emissions.”
And Dr Friederike Otto, professor in climate science at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial, said: “This study highlights a simple fact: burning more oil, coal and gas will kill more people.
“The only way to stop European heatwaves from becoming even deadlier is to stop burning fossil fuels,” she warned.
