Countries remain entrenched on the key issue of climate finance with just months to go before the Cop29 summit starts.
A high-level meeting was held behind closed doors last week in Shamakhi, Azerbaijan, where the summit will take place in November. The talks were bound by confidentiality rules and aimed to find common ground between negotiating blocs.
But several experts close to the talks said that, while the atmosphere was constructive at the retreat held from June 26 to 27, difficult negotiations lay ahead.
The gathering was attended by heads of delegations, including the leaders of all negotiating groups, and followed a fraught last round of talks in Bonn, Germany, where countries remained divided on climate finance.
Cop29 in Baku is set to be dominated by negotiations over a new financial pledge, known as the new collective quantified goal, to replace the annual $100 billion a year for developing countries.
“The fact that this meeting was held is a positive sign from the Azerbaijan presidency, as it shows they are proactively creating spaces for dialogue to untangle the issues which prevented achieving more progress in Bonn,” said Laura Sabogal Reyes, of the E3G think tank.
“This is important to create momentum and the required sense of urgency which will enable the necessary technical and political agreements to land the new collective quantified goal.”
Countries at last year's Cop28 summit in Dubai made a historic decision to “transition away” from fossil fuels in global energy systems.
But the question of how to pay for this – particularly for vulnerable countries on the front lines of climate change – has emerged as a make-or-break issue for Cop29 that is to he held in Azerbaijan's capital Baku from November 11 to 22.
The current funding pledge of $100 billion a year runs until 2025 and needs to be replaced with a new target at Cop29. The pledge was initially agreed in 2009 and it was only announced last year that countries had reached it.
But many developing countries say funds are not there or are too difficult to access. Europe is among those looking for countries such as China to strengthen their climate commitments.
Finance deal key to Cop29 success
Cop29 President-designate Mukhtar Babayev said in a letter to parties last month that the new goal on finance would be the “centrepiece” of negotiations at the summit and urged developed countries “to continue efforts to meet the $100 billion goal through to 2025 with greater clarity and transparency”.
The Cop29 presidency has appointed ministers Dan Jorgensen of Denmark and Yasmine Fouad of Egypt as ministerial pairs to enhance the talks around the finance goal.
“It’s standard operating procedure for the presidency to convene heads of delegation meetings in the run-up to the Cop, in order to discuss the thorniest issues on the table,” said Simon Evans, deputy editor and senior policy editor at Carbon Brief, a UK-based climate specialist website.
“Unsurprisingly, that means they talked about issues including the new climate finance goal – where positions continue to be entrenched – and Article 6 carbon markets, where there was more progress.
“Ultimately, Cop29 won’t be seen as a success without deals in both of those areas, but it isn’t yet clear what the 'landing zones' for agreed outcomes will look like.”
Ms Reyes said E3G’s understanding of the gathering was that it was “constructive” but it was “hard to know what that means as there was no formal outcome nor synthesis document”.
“Discussions revolved around the technical and political dimensions of the NCQG to chart a clear way forward towards Cop29,” she added.
Vulnerable nations count the cost
The Alliance of Small Island States, representing nations on the front lines of climate change, said before the meeting that several Caribbean countries were still reeling from the destruction caused by Hurricane Beryl, which it said broke records as the earliest category five hurricane to hit the region. The deadly hurricane formed in late June.
“Talk without commitment on climate action is cheap for bigger countries, but our small island developing states pay the ultimate price with loss of our lives, livelihoods, and invaluable ecosystems,” the alliance's chairman, Fatumanava-o-Upolu III Dr Pa'olelei Luteru, said before last week’s gathering urging a halt to the expansion of fossil fuel projects.
Scientists say man-made climate change is bringing higher temperatures and making extreme weather more common. “We cannot accept lip service on commitments to cut emissions," he said. "Our international colleagues and partners must understand that every single tonne of emissions they put into our world’s atmosphere comes falling down to crush the most vulnerable people on our planet.”
It is thought trillions of dollars will be needed to tackle climate change and Aosis said the new goal must provide a “minimum allocation” for small island developing states.
Cop29 is only a few months away. Key meetings on the road to Baku to advance progress include the UN General Assembly and New York Climate Week in September; the G20 leaders’ summit in November; and the pre-Cop event in October, before the summit starts in Baku on November 11 to 22. But the clock is ticking.
“The Cop presidency has made significant strides in recent weeks, including organising this retreat and assigning ministerial pairs,” Ms Reyes said.
“However, ensuring a successful Cop29, will require sustained and intensified political commitment from the presidency in the coming months, which we have yet to observe in full measure.”
The effects of climate change on the Middle East region - in pictures
