Cop28 can succeed despite 'difficult and challenging' geopolitics, UK minister says

The chance of a good outcome at Cop28 has increased despite a “fiendishly difficult” geopolitical backdrop, a British minister has said.

Graham Stuart, the UK’s Minister of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, said he had come away from the pre-Cop event in Abu Dhabi this week feeling more positive than he had expected.

Speaking to The National on Wednesday, Mr Stuart said there was now hope at the crunch talks of clinching a decision ranging from fossil fuels to climate adaptation that parties could live with.

“The geopolitical context for this is fiendishly difficult and challenging,” said Mr Stuart.

“Coming into this there [was] not a huge amount of trust and goodwill. And yet, I've come away much more positive than I expected and a huge amount of that is down to the way the UAE has worked so hard at this.

“I feel we can find landing grounds that bring the world together and does allow us to enter Cop28 with a hope of getting a cover decision with which we can all live,” he said, referring to the declaration usually issued at the end of Cops.

The pre-Cop event attracted about 70 ministers from around the world.

It aimed to iron out major differences on key issues such as fossil fuels, boosting renewable energy, scaling up climate finance and the contentious issue of loss and damage.

Mr Stuart said he was hopeful of a deal on loss and damage at Cop28, but a sticking point in the talks surrounded who receives any money pledged, with some parties at the table advocating for all developing countries to be eligible.

He also said more work had to be done, rejecting, for example, the idea of “significant funds going to the world's largest emitter … instead of countries literally disappearing under the sea”, referring to how countries such as China are still classified as developing using some criteria.

“The eligibility for who receives [the funding] – that's contentious. I hope we can land that,” he said.

Mr Stuart rejected criticism of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's decision to postpone the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles to 2035.

“If you genuinely care about climate change, the UK is one country you don't need to worry about,” he said.

He pointed to the fact that the UK has slashed emissions and enshrined its 2050 net zero target in law.

“Other than that we are an absolute laggard,” he said, adding that the best approach on climate issues was to bring everyone along.

“Take my constituents, many of whom are off the gas grid and worried about being forced to have a heat pump,” he said, referring residents of Beverly and Holderness, in northern England.

“We know if we are to maintain the UK as a clear global leader on climate action, which we are, then we have to retain the support and consent of the British people.

“We believe as Conservatives that it is best done by going with the grain of people's choices: not forcing them. The car change is simply going to align us with the rest of Europe,” he said.

Mr Stuart said it is “bizarre to have a focus” on the UK.

“We are so obviously the climate leader because we have cut emissions more than anyone else,” he added.

Cop28, at Expo City Dubai from November 30 to December 12, will see global leaders tackling the climate emergency.

Mr Stuart praised the role of Cop28 President-designate Dr Sultan Al Jaber, stating that he was “exactly the right man” to guide the talks.

“I've come out of pre-Cop feeling optimistic,” Mr Stuart said. “We need to act. It is the tragedy of the commons [where] everybody sits there looking at their pasture saying, 'I've only got eight cows and I'm not the one causing the problem.'

“Yet if anyone ruins the pasture, we will all starve. I can see a window where we can have a successful Cop28.”