Rising rates of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are incompatible with keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a Met Office study has warned.
Using measurements taken at Mauna Loa, Hawaii stretching back to 1958, concentrations of the key greenhouse gas rose at their fastest annual levels in 2024, exceeding Met Office predictions for the year.
At Mauna Loa, a rise of 3.58 parts per million (ppm) was recorded, well above the predicted 2.84ppm from the Met Office. Satellite measurements also showed large increases worldwide.
The Met Office said the increase was down to record high emissions from fossil fuel burning, natural “sinks” such as tropical forests capturing less carbon, and wildfires.
The reduction in carbon absorbed by forests and the wildfires were driven by hot conditions linked to El Nino in the Pacific, which pushes up global temperatures, and climate change.
The Met Office, which has produced forecasts for carbon dioxide since 2016, predicts the rise from 2024 to 2025 will be less extreme than the increase recorded last year, at about 2.26ppm.
Global data suggests carbon dioxide emissions will reach 37.41 billion tonnes in 2024.
But even this slower rise will be too fast to stay on track for pathways laid out by the UN’s climate body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that aim for warming to remain below 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels with no or little overshoot, the Met Office warned.
The IPCC also predicts temperatures will overshoot 1.5°C temporarily for a few decades before returning below the threshold by the end of this century.
To remain on track, Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions must drop by around 43 per cent by 2030, according to estimates.
Effects of climate change on Middle East - in pictures
But they will require greater reliance on technology or approaches, such as planting more forests, that reduce the overall level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The figures came after Copernicus, EU's climate change monitoring service, recently revealed that Earth’s temperature remained 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average in 2024, representing the first calendar-long breach of the milestone on record.
It said the global temperature average of 15.10°C was 0.12°C above 2023's level, the previous warmest year. It was also 1.60°C higher than the temperature estimate for the pre-fossil fuel era, from 1850 to 1900.
Scientists said the data suggested it was now “very likely” the world would fail to reach its 2060 global warming targets.
Pursuing efforts to prevent the world warming by more than the 1.5°C limit is one of the key commitments of the global Paris treaty, which countries agreed to in 2015 in a bid to avert the most dangerous effects of climate change.
Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere traps heat and higher levels of the gas trap more warmth, pushing up global temperatures over time, which causes rising sea levels, more extreme droughts, storms, floods, harm to wildlife and critical natural systems.
If global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C, the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere needs to already be slowing to a rise of 1.8ppm a year this decade, before halting and starting to decline, according to IPCC calculations, the Met Office said.
But increases are averaging about 2.5ppm so far this decade, said the Met Office’s Prof Richard Betts, who leads the production of the forecast.
'Time is not on our side,' UN chief warns Cop29 - video
“Last week, it was confirmed that 2024 was the warmest year on record, with annual average temperatures higher than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time,” he said.
“While this does not represent a failure to achieve the Paris Agreement target, as that would require breaching warming 1.5°C over a longer period and we may see a slightly cooler year in 2025, the long-term warming trend will continue because carbon dioxide is still building up in the atmosphere.”
He said a switch from El Nino to La Nina – which creates cooler, wetter conditions, particularly in the tropics – would mean forests and other natural systems soak up more carbon than last year, temporarily slowing the rise in levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
“However, stopping global warming needs the build-up of greenhouse gases in the air to come to a complete halt and then start to reduce,” he said. “Large, rapid emissions cuts could limit the extent to which global warming exceeds 1.5°C – but this needs urgent action internationally."
A study from 2022 found that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere was 50 per cent higher than the pre-Industrial Revolution era, reaching levels not seen in more than four million years.
Worsening warming
According to the Carbon Brief, if warming exceeds 1.5°C beyond 2100 and peaks at 1.89°C, sea levels will rise by 20cm at more than 70 per cent of the Earth's coastlines.
If warming continues to rise, peaking at 2.69°C by 2100, the world would pass a catastrophic point of no return, with the loss of all ice sheets, sea level rises of several metres, extreme heatwaves occurring most years and the drying out of the Amazon rainforest.
Warming of 4°C would result in unprecedented heatwaves, severe drought and major flooding, creating millions of global climate refugees. Wide-scale adaptation to global sea rise would also be necessary.
The five pillars of Islam
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Lewis Hamilton in 2018
Australia 2nd; Bahrain 3rd; China 4th; Azerbaijan 1st; Spain 1st; Monaco 3rd; Canada 5th; France 1st; Austria DNF; Britain 2nd; Germany 1st; Hungary 1st; Belgium 2nd; Italy 1st; Singapore 1st; Russia 1st; Japan 1st; United States 3rd; Mexico 4th
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The specs: 2018 Maserati Levante S
Price, base / as tested: Dh409,000 / Dh467,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 430hp @ 5,750rpm
Torque: 580Nm @ 4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 10.9L / 100km
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-3 Group 1 (PA) | US$95,000 | (Dirt) 2,000m
7.05pm: Meydan Classic Listed (TB) ) | $175,000) | (Turf) 1,600m
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Nad Al Sheba Trophy Group 3 (TB) ) | $300,000) | (T) 2,810m
8.50pm: Curlin Handicap Listed (TB)) | $160,000) | (D) 2,000m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB)) | $175,000) | (T) 1,400m
10pm: Handicap (TB) ) | $135,000 ) | (T) 2,000m
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
RESULTS
Mumbai Indians 181-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata Knight Riders 168-6 (20ovs)
Mumbai won by 13 runs
Rajasthan Royals 152-9 (20 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab 155-4 (18.4 ovs)
Kings XI Punjab won by 6 wickets
Company%20Profile
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THE SPECS
Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine
Power: 420kW
Torque: 780Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh1,350,000
On sale: Available for preorder now
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Day 1 results:
Open Men (bonus points in brackets)
New Zealand 125 (1) beat UAE 111 (3)
India 111 (4) beat Singapore 75 (0)
South Africa 66 (2) beat Sri Lanka 57 (2)
Australia 126 (4) beat Malaysia -16 (0)
Open Women
New Zealand 64 (2) beat South Africa 57 (2)
England 69 (3) beat UAE 63 (1)
Australia 124 (4) beat UAE 23 (0)
New Zealand 74 (2) beat England 55 (2)
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The specs
Engine: 2.7-litre 4-cylinder Turbomax
Power: 310hp
Torque: 583Nm
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Price: From Dh192,500
On sale: Now
EXPATS
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DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
Jigra
Starring: Alia Bhatt, Vedang Raina, Manoj Pahwa, Harsh Singh
Result
2.15pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,950m; Winner: Majestic Thunder, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Satish Seemar (trainer).
2.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m; Winner: Tailor’s Row, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer.
3.15pm: Handicap Dh85,000 1,600m; Winner: Native Appeal, Adam McLean, Doug Watson.
3.45pm: Handicap Dh115,000 1,950m; Winner: Conclusion, Antonio Fresu, Musabah Al Muhairi.
4.15pm: Handicap Dh100,000 1,400m; Winner: Pilgrim’s Treasure, Tadhg O’Shea, Satish Seemar.
4.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m; Winner: Sanad Libya, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
5.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,000m; Winner: Midlander, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Teachers' pay - what you need to know
Pay varies significantly depending on the school, its rating and the curriculum. Here's a rough guide as of January 2021:
- top end schools tend to pay Dh16,000-17,000 a month - plus a monthly housing allowance of up to Dh6,000. These tend to be British curriculum schools rated 'outstanding' or 'very good', followed by American schools
- average salary across curriculums and skill levels is about Dh10,000, recruiters say
- it is becoming more common for schools to provide accommodation, sometimes in an apartment block with other teachers, rather than hand teachers a cash housing allowance
- some strong performing schools have cut back on salaries since the pandemic began, sometimes offering Dh16,000 including the housing allowance, which reflects the slump in rental costs, and sheer demand for jobs
- maths and science teachers are most in demand and some schools will pay up to Dh3,000 more than other teachers in recognition of their technical skills
- at the other end of the market, teachers in some Indian schools, where fees are lower and competition among applicants is intense, can be paid as low as Dh3,000 per month
- in Indian schools, it has also become common for teachers to share residential accommodation, living in a block with colleagues
Notable groups (UAE time)
Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, Henrik Stenson (12.47pm)
Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Louis Oosthuizen (12.58pm)
Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka, Tommy Fleetwood (1.09pm)
Sergio Garcia, Jason Day, Zach Johnson (4.04pm)
Rickie Fowler, Paul Casey, Adam Scott (4.26pm)
Dustin Johnson, Charl Schwartzel, Rory McIlroy (5.48pm)
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
