Artificial intelligence modelling has predicted that Earth could surpass key climate targets within decades, with temperatures in some regions rising by 3°C as early as 2060, far earlier than previous timelines.
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, world leaders agreed to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. However, new research by three leading climate scientists has added to a growing body of evidence that this global temperature target is now out of reach.
The study examined 10 climate models using machine learning techniques. They found that 34 regions were likely to exceed 1.5°C warming by 2040, with most of these expected to reach 2°C warming by 2040. In addition, 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.
South Asia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe and parts of sub-Saharan Africa are among regions most likely to be affected by this accelerated timeline. This would compound risks for vulnerable ecosystems and communities, the research authors said.
This year is set to beat 2023 as the hottest on record, with global average temperatures expected to exceed the pre-industrial baseline, before people started burning fossil fuels to power industry.
“Given the impacts on extreme events, water resources, food security, human health, livelihoods and ecosystems that are already emerging at the current levels of regional warming, the likelihood that these higher levels or regional warming are reached in the next two to three decades poses substantial risks,” the report said.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, was carried out by Elizabeth Barnes, professor at Colorado State University, Noah Diffenbaugh, professor at Stanford University, and Sonia Seneviratne, professor at the ETH-Zurich. They used cutting-edge AI transfer-learning to integrate the previous climate models to deliver what they said were more accurate regional predictions.
Prof Diffenbaugh said it was important to focus not only on global temperature increases but also on specific changes happening in local and regional areas. Climate thresholds are based on averages and do not tell the full story of how extreme the climate could become in some vulnerable regions, he said.
In a second study published on Tuesday, Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes released more AI-driven research that warned that heat records could be shattered in the coming years. They posit there is a 50 per cent chance that global warming will breach 2°C, even if humanity meets current net zero targets.
For the second study, Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes trained an AI system to predict how high global temperatures could climb, depending on the pace of decarbonisation. The paper is published in Geophysical Research Letters.
They examined temperature and greenhouse gas data from vast archives of climate model simulations. To predict future warming they gave the AI the actual historical temperatures as input.
If net zero is not reached by 2100, Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes found a 90 per cent chance that the hottest year will exceed the pre-industrial baseline. In this scenario, many regions could experience temperature anomalies at least three times hotter than those that occurred in 2023.
Both new studies build on 2023 research in which Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes predicted the years remaining until the 1.5°C and 2°C goals are breached.
“We’ve been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes,” said Prof Diffenbaugh, who teaches at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. “This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we’ve been dealing with recently.”
The scientists say their research underlines the importance of investing in decarbonisation and measures that make humans more resilient to the consequences of climate change, including heat, drought and flooding.
They say these efforts have taken a back seat to reducing carbon emissions, with decarbonisation investments outstripping adaptation spending in global climate finance and US-backed policies, such as President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
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Pari
Produced by: Clean Slate Films (Anushka Sharma, Karnesh Sharma) & KriArj Entertainment
Director: Prosit Roy
Starring: Anushka Sharma, Parambrata Chattopadhyay, Ritabhari Chakraborty, Rajat Kapoor, Mansi Multani
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
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Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
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Studying addiction
This month, Dubai Medical College launched the Middle East’s first master's programme in addiction science.
Together with the Erada Centre for Treatment and Rehabilitation, the college offers a two-year master’s course as well as a one-year diploma in the same subject.
The move was announced earlier this year and is part of a new drive to combat drug abuse and increase the region’s capacity for treating drug addiction.
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How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
The Land between Two Rivers: Writing in an Age of Refugees
Tom Sleigh, Graywolf Press
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
The alternatives
• Founded in 2014, Telr is a payment aggregator and gateway with an office in Silicon Oasis. It’s e-commerce entry plan costs Dh349 monthly (plus VAT). QR codes direct customers to an online payment page and merchants can generate payments through messaging apps.
• Business Bay’s Pallapay claims 40,000-plus active merchants who can invoice customers and receive payment by card. Fees range from 1.99 per cent plus Dh1 per transaction depending on payment method and location, such as online or via UAE mobile.
• Tap started in May 2013 in Kuwait, allowing Middle East businesses to bill, accept, receive and make payments online “easier, faster and smoother” via goSell and goCollect. It supports more than 10,000 merchants. Monthly fees range from US$65-100, plus card charges of 2.75-3.75 per cent and Dh1.2 per sale.
• 2checkout’s “all-in-one payment gateway and merchant account” accepts payments in 200-plus markets for 2.4-3.9 per cent, plus a Dh1.2-Dh1.8 currency conversion charge. The US provider processes online shop and mobile transactions and has 17,000-plus active digital commerce users.
• PayPal is probably the best-known online goods payment method - usually used for eBay purchases - but can be used to receive funds, providing everyone’s signed up. Costs from 2.9 per cent plus Dh1.2 per transaction.
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
The End of Loneliness
Benedict Wells
Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins
Sceptre
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
How to report a beggar
Abu Dhabi – Call 999 or 8002626 (Aman Service)
Dubai – Call 800243
Sharjah – Call 065632222
Ras Al Khaimah - Call 072053372
Ajman – Call 067401616
Umm Al Quwain – Call 999
Fujairah - Call 092051100 or 092224411
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
MATCH INFO
Who: UAE v USA
What: first T20 international
When: Friday, 2pm
Where: ICC Academy in Dubai
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
