Artificial intelligence modelling has predicted that Earth could surpass key climate targets within decades, with temperatures in some regions rising by 3°C as early as 2060, far earlier than previous timelines.
Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, world leaders agreed to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. However, new research by three leading climate scientists has added to a growing body of evidence that this global temperature target is now out of reach.
The study examined 10 climate models using machine learning techniques. They found that 34 regions were likely to exceed 1.5°C warming by 2040, with most of these expected to reach 2°C warming by 2040. In addition, 26 of these 34 regions are projected to surpass 3°C of warming by 2060.
South Asia, the Mediterranean, Central Europe and parts of sub-Saharan Africa are among regions most likely to be affected by this accelerated timeline. This would compound risks for vulnerable ecosystems and communities, the research authors said.
This year is set to beat 2023 as the hottest on record, with global average temperatures expected to exceed the pre-industrial baseline, before people started burning fossil fuels to power industry.
“Given the impacts on extreme events, water resources, food security, human health, livelihoods and ecosystems that are already emerging at the current levels of regional warming, the likelihood that these higher levels or regional warming are reached in the next two to three decades poses substantial risks,” the report said.
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, was carried out by Elizabeth Barnes, professor at Colorado State University, Noah Diffenbaugh, professor at Stanford University, and Sonia Seneviratne, professor at the ETH-Zurich. They used cutting-edge AI transfer-learning to integrate the previous climate models to deliver what they said were more accurate regional predictions.
Prof Diffenbaugh said it was important to focus not only on global temperature increases but also on specific changes happening in local and regional areas. Climate thresholds are based on averages and do not tell the full story of how extreme the climate could become in some vulnerable regions, he said.
In a second study published on Tuesday, Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes released more AI-driven research that warned that heat records could be shattered in the coming years. They posit there is a 50 per cent chance that global warming will breach 2°C, even if humanity meets current net zero targets.
For the second study, Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes trained an AI system to predict how high global temperatures could climb, depending on the pace of decarbonisation. The paper is published in Geophysical Research Letters.
They examined temperature and greenhouse gas data from vast archives of climate model simulations. To predict future warming they gave the AI the actual historical temperatures as input.
If net zero is not reached by 2100, Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes found a 90 per cent chance that the hottest year will exceed the pre-industrial baseline. In this scenario, many regions could experience temperature anomalies at least three times hotter than those that occurred in 2023.
Both new studies build on 2023 research in which Prof Diffenbaugh and Prof Barnes predicted the years remaining until the 1.5°C and 2°C goals are breached.
“We’ve been seeing accelerating impacts around the world in recent years, from heatwaves and heavy rainfall and other extremes,” said Prof Diffenbaugh, who teaches at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability. “This study suggests that, even in the best case scenario, we are very likely to experience conditions that are more severe than what we’ve been dealing with recently.”
The scientists say their research underlines the importance of investing in decarbonisation and measures that make humans more resilient to the consequences of climate change, including heat, drought and flooding.
They say these efforts have taken a back seat to reducing carbon emissions, with decarbonisation investments outstripping adaptation spending in global climate finance and US-backed policies, such as President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
WITHIN%20SAND
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Moe%20Alatawi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Ra%E2%80%99ed%20Alshammari%2C%20Adwa%20Fahd%2C%20Muhand%20Alsaleh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dubai works towards better air quality by 2021
Dubai is on a mission to record good air quality for 90 per cent of the year – up from 86 per cent annually today – by 2021.
The municipality plans to have seven mobile air-monitoring stations by 2020 to capture more accurate data in hourly and daily trends of pollution.
These will be on the Palm Jumeirah, Al Qusais, Muhaisnah, Rashidiyah, Al Wasl, Al Quoz and Dubai Investment Park.
“It will allow real-time responding for emergency cases,” said Khaldoon Al Daraji, first environment safety officer at the municipality.
“We’re in a good position except for the cases that are out of our hands, such as sandstorms.
“Sandstorms are our main concern because the UAE is just a receiver.
“The hotspots are Iran, Saudi Arabia and southern Iraq, but we’re working hard with the region to reduce the cycle of sandstorm generation.”
Mr Al Daraji said monitoring as it stood covered 47 per cent of Dubai.
There are 12 fixed stations in the emirate, but Dubai also receives information from monitors belonging to other entities.
“There are 25 stations in total,” Mr Al Daraji said.
“We added new technology and equipment used for the first time for the detection of heavy metals.
“A hundred parameters can be detected but we want to expand it to make sure that the data captured can allow a baseline study in some areas to ensure they are well positioned.”
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
Abandon
Sangeeta Bandyopadhyay
Translated by Arunava Sinha
Tilted Axis Press
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
South and West: From a Notebook
Joan Didion
Fourth Estate
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
The specs: 2018 Jeep Grand Cherokee Trackhawk
Price, base: Dh399,999
Engine: Supercharged 6.2-litre V8
Gearbox: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 707hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 875Nm @ 4,800rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 16.8L / 100km (estimate)
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
Closing the loophole on sugary drinks
As The National reported last year, non-fizzy sugared drinks were not covered when the original tax was introduced in 2017. Sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, 20 grams of sugar per 500ml bottle.
The non-fizzy drink AriZona Iced Tea contains 65 grams of sugar – about 16 teaspoons – per 680ml can. The average can costs about Dh6, which would rise to Dh9.
Drinks such as Starbucks Bottled Mocha Frappuccino contain 31g of sugar in 270ml, while Nescafe Mocha in a can contains 15.6g of sugar in a 240ml can.
Flavoured water, long-life fruit juice concentrates, pre-packaged sweetened coffee drinks fall under the ‘sweetened drink’ category
Not taxed:
Freshly squeezed fruit juices, ground coffee beans, tea leaves and pre-prepared flavoured milkshakes do not come under the ‘sweetened drink’ band.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
French business
France has organised a delegation of leading businesses to travel to Syria. The group was led by French shipping giant CMA CGM, which struck a 30-year contract in May with the Syrian government to develop and run Latakia port. Also present were water and waste management company Suez, defence multinational Thales, and Ellipse Group, which is currently looking into rehabilitating Syrian hospitals.
The Bio
Favourite Emirati dish: I have so many because it has a lot of herbs and vegetables. Harees (oats with chicken) is one of them
Favourite place to go to: Dubai Mall because it has lots of sports shops.
Her motivation: My performance because I know that whatever I do, if I put the effort in, I’ll get results
During her free time: I like to drink coffee - a latte no sugar and no flavours. I do not like cold drinks
Pet peeve: That with every meal they give you a fries and Pepsi. That is so unhealthy
Advice to anyone who wants to be an ironman: Go for the goal. If you are consistent, you will get there. With the first one, it might not be what they want but they should start and just do it
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Race results:
1. Thani Al Qemzi (UAE) Team Abu Dhabi: 46.44 min
2. Peter Morin (FRA) CTIC F1 Shenzhen China Team: 0.91sec
3. Sami Selio (FIN) Mad-Croc Baba Racing Team: 31.43sec
Directed by Sam Mendes
Starring Dean-Charles Chapman, George MacKay, Daniel Mays
4.5/5
What is dialysis?
Dialysis is a way of cleaning your blood when your kidneys fail and can no longer do the job.
It gets rid of your body's wastes, extra salt and water, and helps to control your blood pressure. The main cause of kidney failure is diabetes and hypertension.
There are two kinds of dialysis — haemodialysis and peritoneal.
In haemodialysis, blood is pumped out of your body to an artificial kidney machine that filter your blood and returns it to your body by tubes.
In peritoneal dialysis, the inside lining of your own belly acts as a natural filter. Wastes are taken out by means of a cleansing fluid which is washed in and out of your belly in cycles.
It isn’t an option for everyone but if eligible, can be done at home by the patient or caregiver. This, as opposed to home haemodialysis, is covered by insurance in the UAE.
Medicus AI
Started: 2016
Founder(s): Dr Baher Al Hakim, Dr Nadine Nehme and Makram Saleh
Based: Vienna, Austria; started in Dubai
Sector: Health Tech
Staff: 119
Funding: €7.7 million (Dh31m)
The UN General Assembly President in quotes:
YEMEN: “The developments we have seen are promising. We really hope that the parties are going to respect the agreed ceasefire. I think that the sense of really having the political will to have a peace process is vital. There is a little bit of hope and the role that the UN has played is very important.”
PALESTINE: “There is no easy fix. We need to find the political will and comply with the resolutions that we have agreed upon.”
OMAN: “It is a very important country in our system. They have a very important role to play in terms of the balance and peace process of that particular part of the world, in that their position is neutral. That is why it is very important to have a dialogue with the Omani authorities.”
REFORM OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL: “This is complicated and it requires time. It is dependent on the effort that members want to put into the process. It is a process that has been going on for 25 years. That process is slow but the issue is huge. I really hope we will see some progress during my tenure.”
UAE squad
Esha Oza (captain), Al Maseera Jahangir, Emily Thomas, Heena Hotchandani, Indhuja Nandakumar, Katie Thompson, Lavanya Keny, Mehak Thakur, Michelle Botha, Rinitha Rajith, Samaira Dharnidharka, Siya Gokhale, Sashikala Silva, Suraksha Kotte, Theertha Satish (wicketkeeper) Udeni Kuruppuarachchige, Vaishnave Mahesh.
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – First ODI
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
