An ice-free Arctic is possible by the summer of 2027, even earlier than previous pessimistic predictions by climate scientists.
Arctic ice is shrinking at an unprecedented rate of 12 per cent every 10 years due to greenhouse gas emissions, potentially leading to its first ice-free day before the end of the decade. Such an event is expected to significantly alter the Earth's ecosystem and lead to more extreme weather.
Scientists at the University of Boulder Colorado in the US and the University of Gothenburg in Sweden used computer modelling to predict when the first ice-free day could occur. They carried out hundreds of computer simulations and found that, while still unlikely, an ice-free day was possible in the next three to six years as global air temperatures rise. The findings were published on Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic won’t change things dramatically,” said Alexandra Jahn, associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and fellow at CU Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research. “But it will show that we've fundamentally altered one of the defining characteristics of the natural environment in the Arctic Ocean, which is that it is covered by sea ice and snow year-round, through greenhouse gas emissions.”
The team's previous analysis published in March found that the ice-free milestone could occur sometime in the mid-2030s. They have previously looked at the impact of an ice-free month in the Arctic.
At 1.65 million square miles, or 4.28 million square kilometres, this year's Arctic sea ice minimum – the day with the least frozen seawater – was one of the lowest on record since 1978, but above the all-time low observed in September 2012. That was a stark decline compared to the average coverage of 6.85 million square kilometres between 1979 and 1992. When the Arctic Ocean has less than 1 million square kilometres of ice, scientists say the Arctic is ice-free.
This year is on track to be the hottest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organisation, which has also issued a red alert to highlight that 2015-2024 will be the warmest decade in history.
Prof Jahn and Dr Céline Heuzé from the University of Gothenburg estimated the first ice-free Arctic day using output from over 300 computer simulations. They found that most models predicted that the first ice-free day could happen within nine to 20 years after 2023, regardless of how humans alter their greenhouse gas emissions.
The researchers found that a series of extreme weather events could melt two million square kilometres or more of sea ice in a short period of time: an unusually warm autumn first weakens the sea ice, followed by a warm Arctic winter and spring that prevents sea ice from forming. When the Arctic experiences such extreme warming for three or more years in a row, the first ice-free day could happen in late summer. Warm years have already happened – for example, in March 2022 areas of the Arctic were 10°C (50°F) warmer than average, and areas around the North Pole were nearly melting.
With climate change, the frequency and intensity of these weather events will only increase, according to Dr Heuzé. Sea ice protects the Arctic from warming by reflecting sunlight back into space. With less reflective ice, darker ocean waters will absorb more heat from the Sun, further increasing temperatures in the Arctic and globally. In addition, warming in the Arctic could change wind and ocean current patterns, leading to more extreme weather around the world.
But there is also good news: a drastic cut in emissions could delay an ice-free Arctic and reduce the time the ocean stays ice-free, according to the study. “Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice,” Prof Jahn said.
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The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Oppenheimer
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results
Stage 7:
1. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal - 3:18:29
2. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - same time
3. Phil Bauhaus (GER) Bahrain Victorious
4. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Cees Bol (NED) Team DSM
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 24:00:28
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:35
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:02
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:42
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
The UAE squad for the Asian Indoor and Martial Arts Games
The jiu-jitsu men’s team: Faisal Al Ketbi, Zayed Al Kaabi, Yahia Al Hammadi, Taleb Al Kirbi, Obaid Al Nuaimi, Omar Al Fadhli, Zayed Al Mansoori, Saeed Al Mazroui, Ibrahim Al Hosani, Mohammed Al Qubaisi, Salem Al Suwaidi, Khalfan Belhol, Saood Al Hammadi.
Women’s team: Mouza Al Shamsi, Wadeema Al Yafei, Reem Al Hashmi, Mahra Al Hanaei, Bashayer Al Matrooshi, Hessa Thani, Salwa Al Ali.
Farasan Boat: 128km Away from Anchorage
Director: Mowaffaq Alobaid
Stars: Abdulaziz Almadhi, Mohammed Al Akkasi, Ali Al Suhaibani
Rating: 4/5
Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
