How to win at Cop29: A trillion-dollar war chest for the planet
If Donald Trump is the elephant in the room at a UN climate change summit opening on Monday, curbing global warming may depend on high-stake discussions in the corridor outside.
The US will be represented by Joe Biden's administration at the Cop29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, where rich, polluting countries will be pushed to offer trillions of dollars to a climate-fighting financial deal.
But hard-fought agreements could be ripped up on January 20 once the climate-sceptic President-elect returns to the White House. While Nato has already tried to "Trump-proof" military aid to Ukraine, rewriting climate deals between almost 200 countries is a far more delicate business.
During Mr Trump's first presidency, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement, the accord that commits nations to striving for 1.5°C or less of global warming. Mr Biden restored the US signature but the Trump campaign says he will pull out again.
"For me, the biggest question of all is the global hegemon not playing a leadership role on managing the climate crisis," Sir David King, a former British climate change envoy who helped negotiate the Paris Agreement to make it palatable to the US, told The National.
"Whether the meeting is in Baku or whether it's in Brazil is almost secondary to this problem of managing this situation while the United States is a non-player," he said. "We have to look at alternative ways of taking things forward."
Green-minded diplomats are looking to discuss these alternatives at Cop29. Talks on strategy for dealing with the incoming Trump administration will need to take place on the sidelines of the negotiations in Baku, an official from Germany said.
The EU will need to deepen ties with partners in Africa and South America who can provide raw materials and clean fuel, said the official, who described electric cars as a possible bright spot in the US due to Tesla owner Elon Musk's connections to Mr Trump.
"There's no conceivable sensible alternative to the meeting because doing anything else would send a disastrous signal," they said of the Cop29 talks. Germany will be represented by lame-duck ministers after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's green-minded government.
"It's important now for us to go to other states and share responsibility with them," the official said. "Europe will have a leadership role to a certain extent. We cannot orient ourselves solely by what the Americans do. In climate finance they haven't played the single decisive, outstanding role so far either."
Side deals
Coalitions of the willing are nothing new at a Cop summit. Host countries typically embark on an "action agenda" of initiatives and declarations that do not have the force of a 197-nation UN agreement but still send important signals.
The UAE's Cop28 presidency got 50 oil and gas companies to sign pledges on CO2 and methane, while more than 100 countries put their name to declarations on health and food. Azerbaijan's Cop29 team is planning initiatives on tourism, farming and hydrogen. Mr Biden's team wants to talk to China about methane.
The key negotiating item in Baku is a financial pledge for vulnerable countries called the New Collective Quantified Goal. Even under Mr Biden, the US has baulked at some of their financial demands, especially the idea of compensating them for climate disasters.
An initial US pledge of $17.5 million to a disaster fund set up in the UAE was widely seen as paltry. New money may be hard to come by under Mr Trump, who says he will renege on a $3 billion pledge to the UN's Green Climate Fund. He attacked the Paris Agreement as unfairly stymying the US economy.
"The NCQG is obviously a critical conversations in the negotiating rooms this year, but outside of those, countries can be coming forward with pledges to scale up finance," said Katrine Petersen, an adviser at environmental think tank E3G.
"The thing to look out for is: are there new pledges that will create additional finance, and making sure that finance actually goes to the projects where it’s needed? So not repackaging existing finance in a different way or talking in fairly vague terms, but looking very specifically at what’s needed."
Unstoppable momentum?
Beyond making side announcements in Baku, a second hope of environmentalists is that green action will continue apace whether the Trump administration supports it or not, both in America's states and businesses and in the global economy.
The Cop28 deal, known as the UAE Consensus, was hailed as a signal to investors that a shift to clean energy and a "transition away" from fossil fuels is the way the world is headed. Solar power continues to grow rapidly in China, and global investment in clean energy is nearing $2 trillion a year.
"The US has never been a great team player at Cops, regardless of which party is in government. People don’t go to Cops expecting the US to push for more ambition," said Friederike Otto, an Imperial College London lecturer on environmental policy.
"When Trump quit the Paris Agreement in 2017, many governments still stuck to their plans. As always, other countries need to step up at Cop29," she said.
Dan Lashof, the US director of the World Resources Institute, said most of America's state, local and private sector bosses were "committed to charging ahead". He said Cop29 delegates could "count on a chorus of world leaders confirming that they won’t turn their back on climate and nature goals".
"Donald Trump heading back to the White House won’t be a death knell to the clean energy transition that has rapidly picked up pace these last four years," he said. "Trump has every reason to build on transformations already under way."
Pledge deadline
Nonetheless, America's CO2 emissions remain high and Mr Trump will take over what is "essentially an oil, gas and coal economy", Sir David said. He said Cop30 in Brazil next year will be "the world's most important meeting" when each country must hand in a new climate plan based on the UAE Consensus.
The idea of "nationally determined contributions" towards a common goal was a key plank of the Paris Agreement, meant to bring the US on board because then-president Barack Obama could sell it to Congress as a non-binding treaty that kept power in Washington's hands.
But Mr Trump abandoned the NDC submitted by the Obama administration, and could so the same in his second term even if Mr Biden submits one before inauguration day. The 197-nation Cop process also makes it possible for the US and other polluters to block the way internationally, Sir David said.
"What we need to is get major countries around the world to agree on actions whether or not they're agreed in the Cop process," he said. He suggested this could include the transfer of technologies between Europe and China and putting money on the table for climate-related loss and damage.
"The Cop meetings, I'm not writing them off, they're critically important. But nevertheless I do think it is important for us to recognise this is a major challenge and the willing countries need to take hold of it and do what they can."
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: N2 Technology
Founded: 2018
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Startups
Size: 14
Funding: $1.7m from HNIs
The years Ramadan fell in May
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped
UAE SQUAD
UAE team
1. Chris Jones-Griffiths 2. Gio Fourie 3. Craig Nutt 4. Daniel Perry 5. Isaac Porter 6. Matt Mills 7. Hamish Anderson 8. Jaen Botes 9. Barry Dwyer 10. Luke Stevenson (captain) 11. Sean Carey 12. Andrew Powell 13. Saki Naisau 14. Thinus Steyn 15. Matt Richards
Replacements
16. Lukas Waddington 17. Murray Reason 18. Ahmed Moosa 19. Stephen Ferguson 20. Sean Stevens 21. Ed Armitage 22. Kini Natuna 23. Majid Al Balooshi
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
THE DEALS
Hamilton $60m x 2 = $120m
Vettel $45m x 2 = $90m
Ricciardo $35m x 2 = $70m
Verstappen $55m x 3 = $165m
Leclerc $20m x 2 = $40m
TOTAL $485m
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Villains
Queens of the Stone Age
Matador
PFA Premier League team of 2018-19
Allison (Liverpool)
Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool)
Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)
Aymeric Laporte (Manchester City)
Andrew Robertson (Liverpool)
Paul Pogba (Manchester United)
Fernandinho (Manchester City)
Bernardo Silva (Manchester City)
Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Silent Hill f
Publisher: Konami
Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC
Rating: 4.5/5
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh149,900
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group B
Barcelona v Inter Milan
Camp Nou, Barcelona
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
Community Shield info
Where, when and at what time Wembley Stadium in London on Sunday at 5pm (UAE time)
Arsenal line up (3-4-2-1) Petr Cech; Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Nacho Monreal; Hector Bellerin, Mohamed Elneny, Granit Xhaka, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain; Alex Iwobi, Danny Welbeck; Alexandre Lacazette
Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger
Chelsea line up (3-4-2-1) Thibaut Courtois; Cesar Azpilicueta, David Luiz, Gary Cahill; Victor Moses, Cesc Fabregas, N'Golo Kante, Marcos Alonso; Willian, Pedro; Michy Batshuayi
Chelsea manager Antonio Conte
Referee Bobby Madley
How to play the stock market recovery in 2021?
If you are looking to build your long-term wealth in 2021 and beyond, the stock market is still the best place to do it as equities powered on despite the pandemic.
Investing in individual stocks is not for everyone and most private investors should stick to mutual funds and ETFs, but there are some thrilling opportunities for those who understand the risks.
Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, says the 20 best-performing US and European stocks have delivered an average return year-to-date of 148 per cent, measured in local currency terms.
Online marketplace Etsy was the best performer with a return of 330.6 per cent, followed by communications software company Sinch (315.4 per cent), online supermarket HelloFresh (232.8 per cent) and fuel cells specialist NEL (191.7 per cent).
Mr Garnry says digital companies benefited from the lockdown, while green energy firms flew as efforts to combat climate change were ramped up, helped in part by the European Union’s green deal.
Electric car company Tesla would be on the list if it had been part of the S&P 500 Index, but it only joined on December 21. “Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world this year as demand for electric vehicles has grown dramatically,” Mr Garnry says.
By contrast, the 20 worst-performing European stocks fell 54 per cent on average, with European banks hit by the economic fallout from the pandemic, while cruise liners and airline stocks suffered due to travel restrictions.
As demand for energy fell, the oil and gas industry had a tough year, too.
Mr Garnry says the biggest story this year was the “absolute crunch” in so-called value stocks, companies that trade at low valuations compared to their earnings and growth potential.
He says they are “heavily tilted towards financials, miners, energy, utilities and industrials, which have all been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic”. “The last year saw these cheap stocks become cheaper and expensive stocks have become more expensive.”
This has triggered excited talk about the “great value rotation” but Mr Garnry remains sceptical. “We need to see a breakout of interest rates combined with higher inflation before we join the crowd.”
Always remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Last year’s winners often turn out to be this year’s losers, and vice-versa.
WORLD RECORD FEES FOR GOALKEEPERS
1) Kepa Arrizabalaga, Athletic Bilbao to Chelsea (£72m)
2) Alisson, Roma to Liverpool (£67m)
3) Ederson, Benfica to Manchester City (£35m)
4) Gianluigi Buffon, Parma to Juventus (£33m)
5) Angelo Peruzzi, Inter Milan to Lazio (£15.7m
Bert van Marwijk factfile
Born: May 19 1952
Place of birth: Deventer, Netherlands
Playing position: Midfielder
Teams managed:
1998-2000 Fortuna Sittard
2000-2004 Feyenoord
2004-2006 Borussia Dortmund
2007-2008 Feyenoord
2008-2012 Netherlands
2013-2014 Hamburg
2015-2017 Saudi Arabia
2018 Australia
Major honours (manager):
2001/02 Uefa Cup, Feyenoord
2007/08 KNVB Cup, Feyenoord
World Cup runner-up, Netherlands
THE SPECS
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 275hp at 6,600rpm
Torque: 353Nm from 1,450-4,700rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Top speed: 250kph
Fuel consumption: 6.8L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: Dh146,999
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Kandahar%20
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The Saudi Cup race card
1 The Jockey Club Local Handicap (TB) 1,800m (Dirt) $500,000
2 The Riyadh Dirt Sprint (TB) 1,200m (D) $1.500,000
3 The 1351 Turf Sprint 1,351m (Turf) $1,000,000
4 The Saudi Derby (TB) 1600m (D) $800,000
5 The Neom Turf Cup (TB) 2,100m (T) $1,000,000
6 The Obaiya Arabian Classic (PB) 2,000m (D) $1,900,000
7 The Red Sea Turf Handicap (TB) 3,000m (T) $2,500,000
8 The Saudi Cup (TB) 1,800m (D) $20,000,000
Match info:
Wolves 1
Boly (57')
Manchester City 1
Laporte (69')
