The idea of climate migration in the western media conjures images of desperate Africans straggling across the desert, or Bangladeshis sitting on their rooftops amid flooded fields. But as hurricanes and wildfires tear through apparently safe locales, climate migration is a feature of life in the US and Europe, too – even if the West doesn’t realise it yet.
One of the great trends of 20th century American life was the population move to the Sun Belt states such as California, Arizona and Florida, aided by widespread air conditioning, from the drought-stricken Mid-West in the 1930s, and the decaying – and colder – northern rust-belt from the 1970s. John Steinbeck’s classic novel The Grapes of Wrath follows one family of “Okies” (migrant farm workers) fleeing their parched farm in Oklahoma’s Dust-Bowl for a better life in California – where they encounter prejudice and exploitation.
Two major hurricanes have just struck the US. Milton hit low-lying Florida, which is no stranger to such storms. Helene, though, reached mountainous areas of inland North Carolina, usually thought to be safe, bringing catastrophic flooding and landslides and killing at least 227 people.
Although the science is complex and debated, World Weather Attribution found that global warming made Milton’s winds 10 per cent more powerful, and the hurricane 20 to 30 per cent rainier, while Helene was about 10 per cent more intense on these measures. This is the general pattern to be expected from increased evaporation from hotter tropical seas where hurricanes are born. There will be more powerful storms, and they will intensify rapidly.
The effect of the hurricanes is magnified by sea-level rise because of expanding warmer seas and melting glaciers. The storm surge they bring approaches coastlines already retreating. The US East and Gulf Coasts are undergoing an above-average relative sea-level rise because of post-glacial subsidence, the damming of sediment-bearing rivers, and the extraction of subsurface water and oil.
The effects of global warming are being felt across North America and Europe. Heatwaves are hitting more northerly cities that are not equipped for them. Traditional tourist areas in southern Europe are becoming unbearably hot in summer.
A long drought in California might return as the Pacific shifts back to La Niña conditions this year. Wildfires burn homes, cut off power, and bring choking smoke to the south-western US, New York and other areas adjacent to Canadian forests, Greece and Australia. Heavy rains strain dams and overtop rivers across central Europe, France, England and Wales, while April’s floods in Dubai and Sharjah are fresh in the memory.
While Europe mostly worries about rising heat, it’s also possible that changes in oceanic circulation could plunge it into a deep freeze. That would make parts of the continent uninhabitable and decimate agriculture.
While Europe and the US have become increasingly hostile to immigration, climate change impact – such as storms and droughts forcing farmers off the land in Central America, and the effect of water shortages across weak states in the Middle East and Sahel – also influences migration patterns. A World Bank paper found that more than 200 million people in poorer countries might migrate by 2050 because of climate change.
These climatic troubles are particularly damaging because they occur in low-income, poorly-governed or oppressive states that cannot deal with them effectively. Wealthier countries may think they are relatively immune.
But the costs of climate-related natural disasters are huge – $225 billion to $250 billion for Hurricane Helene, according to estimates from forecaster AccuWeather. Most of this is not covered by insurance. Uninsured properties can’t easily be sold or mortgaged.
That is one powerful force for climate migration within the nation: properties by the coast or on floodplains will become increasingly impossible to insure, or the budgetary cost of government-backed insurance will become unaffordable. Rich and high-profile neighbourhoods will probably be able to attract government funds while poorer areas are sacrificed.
Wealthy countries can cope with many of the effects of a changing climate through improvements to flood defences, seawalls, dams, air-conditioning, drip irrigation, changing cultivation to less water-hungry plants, better forest management and firefighting. A large part of these costs will be invisible, but will pose an ever-increasing drag on productivity and economic growth.
Migration within the US is relatively straightforward. In the EU and European economic area, it is legally quite easy, but there are barriers of language, culture and personal networks. Brexit Britain has foolishly cut itself off from such flexibility.
But the accelerating flight of large numbers of people will worsen social tensions and have powerful and unpredictable political consequences. Over the past two decades, about 3.2 million people, or nearly 1 per cent of the American population, have already moved to escape flooding, a paper in Nature found. Big states such as California, Texas and Florida report population growth slowing as climatic risks deter residents.
The best approach, of course, is to limit global warming as far as possible. But with at least a rise of 2ºC now a near-certainty, authorities need to plan ahead. Efforts so far are piecemeal and conventional. North Carolina, a swing state in the upcoming US election, even introduced a law in 2011 banning the use of updated estimates of sea-level rise by state agencies in land-use decisions.
Migration within wealthy countries and areas because of climate change is already a reality. Rather than listening to anti-immigration campaigners rallying against hordes of incomers from poorer regions, wealthy countries such as the US and those in Europe need to prepare for their own internally-displaced people. That’s better than the social dislocation and political dysfunction that a new wave of 21st century Okies will bring.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Honeymoonish
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
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Naga
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
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The specs
Price, base / as tested Dh1,100,000 (est)
Engine 5.2-litre V10
Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch
Power 630bhp @ 8,000rpm
Torque 600Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined 15.7L / 100km (est)
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TO A LAND UNKNOWN
Director: Mahdi Fleifel
Starring: Mahmoud Bakri, Aram Sabbah, Mohammad Alsurafa
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
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When Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi
Known as The Lady of Arabic Song, Umm Kulthum performed in Abu Dhabi on November 28, 1971, as part of celebrations for the fifth anniversary of the accession of Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan as Ruler of Abu Dhabi. A concert hall was constructed for the event on land that is now Al Nahyan Stadium, behind Al Wahda Mall. The audience were treated to many of Kulthum's most well-known songs as part of the sold-out show, including Aghadan Alqak and Enta Omri.
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WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
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The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre supercharged V8
Power: 712hp at 6,100rpm
Torque: 881Nm at 4,800rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 19.6 l/100km
Price: Dh380,000
On sale: now
Company Profile
Company name: OneOrder
Started: October 2021
Founders: Tamer Amer and Karim Maurice
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Industry: technology, logistics
Investors: A15 and self-funded
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Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
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Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
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Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
The%20Super%20Mario%20Bros%20Movie
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EMILY%20IN%20PARIS%3A%20SEASON%203
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The%20specs
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Emergency
Director: Kangana Ranaut
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Anupam Kher, Shreyas Talpade, Milind Soman, Mahima Chaudhry
Rating: 2/5
Abandon
Sangeeta Bandyopadhyay
Translated by Arunava Sinha
Tilted Axis Press
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