The Middle East will experience more frequent "extreme rainfall events" due to climate change, researchers say. A report into the regional impact of global warming has predicted increasingly intense monsoons, stronger storms and ever more extreme temperatures this century.
By comparing results from a number of recent studies, researchers have built a picture of how climate change will affect various regions, from the equator to the poles, in the years to come. The study was published in Frontiers in Science.
The UAE, where parts of Dubai received more than 250mm of rain in 24 hours in May – double the amount that typically falls in a year – will experience more extreme rainfall, said the report's lead author, Prof Matthew Collins, of the UK's University of Exeter.
"The concern for the Middle East in general is it is already pretty dry and arid with extreme temperatures. But climate change will also increase the potential for extreme rainfall events," he told The National. "The Middle East is a region where you don’t see many extreme rainfall events. They are not really set up for having these."
In tropical and subtropical regions, including Bangladesh, India, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, similar dramatic increases in rainfall are expected to lead to more intense monsoon seasons in areas where 60 per cent of the world’s population live. This will result in increased flooding, landslides and reduced agricultural yields.
There will also be more frequent and stronger El Nino events, which will lead to more extreme temperatures worldwide, affecting crop harvests, reducing people's ability to work outdoors and increasing mortality in vulnerable populations.
"If you increase the average temperature, you also increase the extreme temperature" said Prof Collins. "If you had high heat and also humidity, this also affects people outside working in fields. It also affects mortality in older people and so on."
In the mid-latitudes, including China, Japan, parts of the US, northern Germany and Poland, and southern parts of the UK, high-resolution climate models suggest a potential strengthening of storms in north-western Europe. This raises the risk of extreme weather, including high winds, flooding and threats to infrastructure.
Over the poles, an increasing amount of precipitation will fall as rain, destabilising melting ice and increasing already rising sea levels. But changes at the poles are not confined to those regions. “Polar amplification, which refers to the phenomenon in which the poles warm faster than the rest of the planet, can influence weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, potentially altering storm tracks,” researchers said.
Climate tipping points – in pictures
“We are constantly advancing our understanding of climate change, particularly its regional aspects, to inform policies aimed at adaptation," said Matthew Collins, of the University of Exeter, first author of the report.
"More investment and research is needed into climate modelling, with higher resolution data, new machine-learning techniques and models to improve the simulation of complex climate phenomena at both global and regional levels, the researchers say. Regional information is essential for preparing for these extreme events.
"Even if we reduce greenhouse-gas emissions today to zero, we would still be having the climate change we’re having today. So we need to think about adapting ourselves. If there are increasing storms, you need to build sea defences and things like that. With extremes of temperature, you need to think about when you’re building buildings, how you will take that into account."
Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE squad
Rahul Chopra (captain), Aayan Afzal Khan, Ali Naseer, Aryansh Sharma, Basil Hameed, Dhruv Parashar, Junaid Siddique, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Jawadullah, Muhammad Waseem, Omid Rahman, Rahul Bhatia, Tanish Suri, Vishnu Sukumaran, Vriitya Aravind
Fixtures
Friday, November 1 – Oman v UAE
Sunday, November 3 – UAE v Netherlands
Thursday, November 7 – UAE v Oman
Saturday, November 9 – Netherlands v UAE
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
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